<DrumBeat: March 28, 2007The Oil DrumDrumBeat: March 29, 2007>

148 comments on Peak Oil - Whom to Believe? Part One - "There's Plenty of Oil, CERAiously"

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step back on March 28, 2007 - 11:31am Permalink | Subthread | Comments top

Nate,
Love your Socratic dialog with "John".
That so pegs it on how our Attention-Deficited Money-Directed (ADMD) culture operates.

We are each so programmed into thinking of everything in terms of money ($$$) and social prestige (mensa-types, ha ha) that we cannot begin to grok the world in any other way.

If anyone says we are brain washed and part of a cult, we deny it ---instantly and without thought.

(P.S. Recently I was watching CNN's Anderson Cooper doing a story on cults, brain washing and more specifically the Heaven's Gate group that drank the Kool Aid as the Hale Bob comet came flying by because they thought that was their ride to the next dimension if only they free themselves of the mortal Shell. The funny part was that Anderson was wearing a pin stripe suit with tie, his expert was donned in suit and tie, and they were laughing at how the Hale Bob bobo's could ever allow themselves to be brain washed. Hello Anderson. You're wearing a rope around your neck! Don't you see it?)

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Nate Hagens on March 28, 2007 - 11:40am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

thanks, i have more on that, but understanding the ADMD of the people we are trying to reach, i doubt anyone had 1-2 hours to read this post so broke it up. Cultural memes are strong forces. That currently is a curse but could turn out to be a blessing - we'll see.

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Darwinian on March 28, 2007 - 12:08pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Brainwashing is a very interesting subject. The vast majority of people do not realize their own predilection to brainwashing. Almost everyone on earth have been brainwashed into taking certain things on faith, though they may believe their beliefs are based on sound scientific evidence.

The talking heads on CNBC have been brainwashed into believing that Saudi Arabia and the rest of the Middle Eastern countries have vast amounts of oil and can increase production at any time. There is absolutely no scientific evidence to support this silly notion. But there is lots of propaganda to support it.

And I really hate to be a nitpicker Step Back, but it's "Hale-Bopp", not Hale Bob.

Ron Patterson

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Asebius on March 28, 2007 - 1:42pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

What is even more interesting than brainwashing -- which is after all as old as civilization itself -- are the tactics people adopt to try to avoid it.

One tactic is to fasten one's mind very tightly onto a handful of scientific first principles and then to attempt to organize the overwhelming complexity of the world through that lens.

I imagine that this has been done ever since Newton's time as science waxed and religion waned, at least among the cognitive elite. There's isn't much that isn't amenable to the Three Laws of Motion or some slightly approximate popular version thereof. For instance, even stating "What goes up must come down" can be highly informative and even reassuring if one is beleaguered by a priapism. But, of course, Newtons Laws apply to much more than one's private(s) life. They pretty much explain all things political and social or at least give a good approximation.

Of course, we have since gone on to apply quantum mechanics and relativity to equally good effect but on a disappointingly smaller audience.

I hereby posit the Laws of Usefulness of Scientific First Principles for the Avoidance of Brainwashing

(1) For a principle to be useful, the broader public must be convinced that they can have a vague clue about it.
(2) The scientifically minded layman, after reading a couple of popular works on the principle, must be capable of feeling he is one of the elite few who now understands it perfectly.

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qole on March 30, 2007 - 12:20pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Asebius,

'For instance, even stating "What goes up must come down" can be highly informative and even reassuring if one is beleaguered by a priapism.'

Best comment ever! That had me laughing! Written as only a true linguaphile can write!

For anyone who didn't get Asebius' very funny comment, look it up. It's worth it.

http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/priapism

(I guessed your enjoyment of words when you used 'revenant' in a previous comment, although I would have used 'atavism' or 'atavistic,' myself, since a Sasquatch is more of a throwback than a ghost. Not that I'm a cryptozoological expert!)

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Asebius on March 30, 2007 - 4:39pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

[atavistic is indeed better, i think i'll go change it ;-) ]

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veganmaster on March 28, 2007 - 2:16pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

That's for sure - most people believe in something supernatural, whether religious or new age or paranormal, etc., despite the total lack of falsifiable and verifiable evidence. That scientific naturalism is so very rare in this so-called "modern" age is proof positive that most humans are basically just talking monkeys. James Randi will give anyone 1 million dollars who proves a single supernatural phenomenon (and the preliminary test set-up is actually very forgiving - yet no one ever makes it to the more scientifically rigorous test, because there is no such thing as magic - only fallible human minds).

Simple-but-false memes which reinforce what people want to hear will ALWAYS succeed over complex logical-reality-based memes which challenge misconceptions. This is true whether you are talking nutrition, religion, or whatever. Thus, only when the cultural zeitgeist has evolved to where people ARE PRIMED BY DIFFICULT CIRCUMSTANCES TO BELIEVE - only then will the simple logical facts surrounding peak oil penetrate the masses. There is probably a threshold that has to be reached, and it could probably happen damn quickly after energy descent gets undeniably viscious. Humans are meme machines not truth machines.

The free market meme easily triumphs over the peak oil meme precisely because there is no thinking (or documentation) required, whereas even the most wonderfully distilled peak oil meme is significantly more complex.

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step back on March 28, 2007 - 7:06pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

... most humans are basically just talking monkeys.

Actually, ALL of us are talking apes except for the few who can't talk.

The very first programming (brain washing) that occurs when we are born is that of instilling in us the notion that "humans" are special, a quantum cut above the rest of all mammals who occupy this planet.

New excuses are fabricated every time another animal is observed using tools or communicating with a species mate.

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jjhman on March 28, 2007 - 8:05pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I like to think that our brains were not designed (by evolution!) to look objectively at facts and come to logical conclusions. They were designed to listen to our physical and emotional needs and define actions that will secure resolution of those needs. Learning and applying the scientific method is extraordinarily unnatural. It is so unnatural that humans that develop the ability to use it need to compartmentalize it in their brains so that they can lead a normal life among other humans.

That nicely explains engineers and astrophysicists that go to church and why men get married.

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thomas deplume on March 29, 2007 - 2:21pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

There must be some evolutionary advantage to religeous belief for it to be so prevalent and persistent over the millenia. Religeons provide the basic rules of community life and the mythologies around them describe our relationships with each other and with nature. It is a belief of my faith community that all things are spiritual and that there is no separation between science and true religeon. We are not biblical literalists and assert that nature is another way God reveals himself and his will for our lives. I believe religeous belief can be as self correcting as science claims to be as we do our best to promote communities of love, hope, faith, and peace. Belief that grace taught by Jesus of Nazareth is not rooted in magic but is an empowerment to keep trying to improve the quality of life of all people. The grace extended to us allows us to extend grace to those who have offended us and break the cycle of revenge which has left so many blind and toothless. Not all Christians believe these things. Some Jews, Muslims, Bhuddists, and others do.
The threats of peak oil and global warming calls the body of Christ to act as the savior of the world and to offer a voice of hope while doomers scream that all is hopeless.

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PeakPlus on March 30, 2007 - 6:57am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

"Learning and applying the scientific method is extraordinarily unnatural."
You couldn't have said it better.
I would only make one suggestion to this analysis:
Too much is focused on "our physical and emotional needs". This is implying that humans tend to act as individuals.

After observing the way kindergarden mothers adjust their views so quickly to compensate for each others' view (and all the unnecessary talk that goes along with it!!), I would place common opinion/belief much higher than any physical needs out there. Except, of course, in a dysfunctional/collapsed/broken society.

Groupthink is about a zillion times more prevailent than any scientific method...
---------
My grandfather pumped oil with an engine-house,
my father pumped oil with a 20 lb. electric motor,
can't I just pump it online?

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step back on March 31, 2007 - 8:01am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

our brains were not designed (by evolution!) to ... come to logical conclusions. They were designed to listen to our physical and emotional needs ... Learning and applying the scientific method is extraordinarily unnatural. It is so unnatural that humans that develop the ability to ... compartmentalize it [scientific reasoning] in their brains so that they can lead a normal life among other humans. ... [this explaining] engineers and astrophysicists that go to church

If there is anything that explains why "the masses" are messed up and don't get "Peak Oil", it's this kind of writing. (Sorry. I'm going after the message, not the messenger.)

Evolution does not "design" anything. Evolution is not some form of "intelligent controller" (intelligent designer) that lurks out there and forces things one way or another.

Our brains are the result of random scrambling. There was no "design". It just so happened that a bunch of random mutations (from among all other mutations that failed miserably) did not fail miserably and managed to squeak by with a D- instead of an F grade in the great school of hard knocks and competitive survival.

We humans do not choose to "compartmentalize" things in our brains. Instead, our brains are the messed up compartments.

You have a chicken/reptile compartment up there in the attic, as well as a herded sheep compartment, and finally some miniscule compartment that fools itself into thinking it engages in "rational" thought.

It is the herded sheep compartment that urges engineers towards going to church and towards huddling in Dilbert cubicles. Once inside the cubicles, they engage on rare occasions in some rational thought. (i.e., Let's see. I went through a graduate engineering program, busted my ass, all so that some business degree major can now control my life. That makes me "smart" and her "stupid".)

Can you say Mooh? How about Bah, Bah?
Can you say Bah Humbug? --See? That proves you are a sheeple and I'm a sheeple. Relax. I engage in religious activities also. It comforts the sheep compartments of my "designed" brain. :-)

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