This is the western Uthmaniyah 2004 Cross Section from Stuarts water in the Gas Tank post.. it comes from the Uthmaniyah SPE paper.

I questioned the 95% water saturation it exhibits.... this seems impossible.

I posted yesterday about the vertical rise in the water level in the Ain Dar structure.

Now look at how the water fills this cross section to nearly the crest without spilling over into the flat area...

There is a 200' wall of water above the oil in this permeable a reservoir- give me a break. We are talking about 30 years or more of water injection here. Stuff moving 4 (or less) FEET PER DAY.

Conclusion- I believe this is a fabrication ... so we will think there is dry oil left in Uthmaniyah when there is not.

JL???

Wow.

Thanks for all your posts, BTW. Fascinating stuff.

I agree, FF's posts have added a new level of expertise to TOD.

But as someone asked the other day, you seem to think things are even worse than we can conclude here...how bad?

Remind me of that conclusion.

I believe he is referring to Stuart's excellent "Water in the Tank."

"I agree, FF's posts have added a new level of expertise to TOD."

And a new level of fear. If Saudi production is collapsing NOW, well it just sucks. I can't think of a nicer way to express it. I'm not ready and I like my computer room, my internet, my video games. I like being able to go the grocery store and buy what want at a moments notice. In a short time all this will be gone. 5 more years would have been nice. Now, instead of buying that new top of the line computer, I'll be buying a crossbow, a bicycle, and a fishing pole. I'll be out in the yard hoeing. Actually, I was looking at a nice rifle with a scope the other day. I no doubt will need to buy something smaller for home defense as well. Now I'll have to spend all my time hunting and fishing and farming(below ground stuff so it will be less likely to be stolen). Many people might think this sounds pretty nice, but I wanted to spend the last part of my life sitting in front of my computer playing games and being a potato not growing them.

I was hoping that growing potatoes instead of just eating them would keep me from looking like a potato. Hasn't worked so far.

lol could be alot worse....like a pineapple...who would ever want to jump in the sack with that?

Ouch....pretty prick-ly, eh....

Boy I agree, I like my life just as it is. I can do fine living a simpler life but the fear of what others might/will do keeps me awake at night. Being in the nations #1 best place to survive means too many people will be forced to move here and we will fight like cats in a sack.
First WT, then Khebab, and now this guy FF. Don't get me wrong I really really value the time and effort that all of the people contribute. But damn it! This is very frightening.
I feel like I'm that lady in the terminator movie who see's the future...and it isn't pretty and everyone thinks you are nuts. I keep telling myself to have strength in my convictions.

Cid
"I like my computer room, my internet, my video games. I"

I've posted it a few times here. Read the lyrics of the Talking Heads song "Nothing But Flowers"

http://www.sing365.com/music/lyric.nsf/Nothing-But-Flowers-lyrics-Talkin...

This was a Pizza Hut
Now it's all covered with daisies
you got it, you got it

I miss the honky tonks,
Dairy Queens, and 7-Elevens
you got it, you got it

...

We used to microwave
Now we just eat nuts and berries
you got it, you got it

This was a discount store,
Now it's turned into a cornfield
you got it, you got it

Don't leave me stranded here
I can't get used to this lifestyle

John

I agree.It sucks to LIVE in a bad scifi move...but just think of all the oppertunities to be a hero,or at least die
heroicly trying to protect your pathetic garden from spikey-haired,mutant starved hoards....sorry,I am in a bad mood tonight.{sometimes this site is a bit depressing.educational,but depressing...}

On your prompting I had come to the conclusion that the high level of water saturation was inconsistent with what we know from Croft about the general nature of Uthmaniyah.

I thought this might be a x-section of a particular part of highly impermeable low-porosity rock, but that seems impossible given the level of water saturation depicted for the lower levels.

Next I wndered how a super-K zone (as described by Simmons) might look. This could be the answer but surely then there would be a greater co-mingling of oil and water rather than the relatively black and white (or indeed pink and blue) picture we see above.

Question is why would the SPE fabricate such a picture or alternatively allow the publication of such an article. Is there no peer review? Who was the author?

I agree it seems strange. It would be interesting to perform some simulations that show water/oil flow using wells placed in different locations. Would it be possible to have this profile if water injection occurred in the lower left and collection occurred in the abrupt peak of the reservoir (center of cross section diagram)? I know there would be multiple injection/collection points, but I'm just trying to think of scenarios that would lead to the above profile.

Looks like they could be injecting water in the upper left-hand (in this view) portion of the reservoir to flush out oil that would otherwise be trapped up there. That could cause the water-oil interface to have a relatively vertical slope. Take a look at this diagram of Ain Dar also from Stuart's paper:

That shows a fairly steep oil-water interface in 1990. Do you think that's a fabrication too?

F_F and Halfin

I wouldn't call subtrfuge first on the model shown. It could simply be a result of the timing of the logs used in the population of the Sw model. I note that the actual coverage of wells shown in the SPE paper is actually quite thin areally. IIRC they don't say in the paper what the timeframe for the logs was.
It could be that the logs for the crest of the structure are significantly older than the ones on the flank.
I have trouble convincing some management types here not to make that mistake with our reservoir model. They want to combine everything..
Personally I find the displayed model to be amazingly coarse. I cant expect that they acutally work with this level of resolution.

what are the saturation values based on ? if they are restart data from the reservoir simulation model, then that would cast doubt on the validity of the model (although AN history match may have been achieved). if the saturations are based on well logs or possibly 4d seismic, that is another matter.

Hi eldwoodelmore,

Thanks and is there any possibility that you might re-post this? I'd like to see this discussion continue.
(Or, perhaps the editors might group all of Stuart's and ff's posts and the replies in one spot?)

hi aniya. i think your idea (sort of a pannel discussion) would be helpful. the data on sa is pretty sketchy. we are like the blind men and the elephant. what happens in sa is important enough that, imo, the discussion is worthwhile. i have learned more than i thought i wanted to know about sa here on tod.

FF-

These graphs are described as simulations. Simulation data are generated on a computer rather than by empirical measurements, so you can call them "fabrications", but that does not mean they are necessarily wrong.

The pronounced streaking in the graph strongly suggests that the permeability underlying these simulations was assumed to be highly anisotropic, i.e., flow was assumed to be much more facile along the strata than in the perpendicular direction. This would then explain the 200 foot "wall of water".

You are probably in a better position to judge how realistic such a high degree of anisotropy really is. My guess would be that the authors of the SPE paper didn't just pluck their anisotropic permeability tensor out of thin air, but based it on actual measurements on rock samples from the reservoir.

some on here have dismissed out of hand the effectiveness of gravity segregation of the oil and water in these sa reservoirs. i am not convinced. i calculate (using major assumptions) that the ratio of oil/gas density (about 6.3)and water/oil density (about 1.7). in other words the ratio of oil/gas density is 3.5 to 4 times that for water/oil. looking at your x-section (realizing that the vertical scale is exagerated), i would guess that yes there could be gravity segregation . and i am not saying that it is the case, however i think gravity segregation could account for the 60 % or so recovery efficiency in this zone (95-15)/1.34 i.e. (sof-soi)/fvf. i would appreciate your comments.

Elwood-

These reservoirs are so big that the water advance up the structure is measured in inches per day. I don't know how to build a 200' high "plume of water" without a sealing fault or pinchout on the crest above.

So do I think it is gravity segregation... yes.

The problem is with the fractional flow recovery after breakthrough.... Saudi has had to pull harder on the dry oil area leaving oil behind in the watered out area. To meet market demand.

But the cross section you see above essentially has no residual oil saturation to water.

And I don't know about the gas/oil thing- these reservoirs never went below the bubble point.

yes, thank you. it is generally acknowledged that gas/oil segregation will occur (secondary gas cap) and that is my reason for mentioning it. i.e. the oil/water density ratio is maybe 3.5 to 4 times the oil/gas ratio, not as huge as some might think.