Ask me a question about the weather, and I talk about exports.

The one year increase in domestic Saudi consumption was 360,000 bpd to 2.0 mbpd (Total Liquids, EIA), from 2004 to 2005, while their current crude oil production is down about 1.1 mbpd from 2005 to early 2007. It currently takes 100% of the Total Liquids production of the 14th largest oil producer in the world, Brazil, to meet domestic Saudi consumption.

Try an exponential increase in domestic consumption against an exponential decline in production. What you get in a worst case scenario is something like the UK, which went from probably peak exports of one mbpd in 1999 to a net importer in 2005, so they probably crossed the zero line in 2004. Think of it--maximum exports to zero net exports in about five years.

We won't see that in Saudi Arabia, but if, as I suspect, Russian production starts falling later this year or next year, IMO we could easily see a 50% drop in net oil exports by the top 10 net oil exporters within five years.

Apparently, the Nimitz battle group is headed for the Persian Gulf. Pretty soon, US warships are going to start running into each other in the gulf.

The number of ships underway does not appear unusually large but the number of aircraft carriers in the North Arabian sea is unusual. I am not aware of any list of naval ships on deployment or deployment locations. The only way to derive this information would be to watch the above linked page daily and see who drops off the list after being underway. However, you'd also have to try to ascertain whether a ship was underway to or from port at any given time.

If anyone is aware of any additional sources of information about Naval ship movement, I'd be interested in seeing those.

Ghawar Is Dying
The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function. - Dr. Albert Bartlett

According to this page the Nimitz is scheduled to relieve the Esienhower in the Gulf this March and has been for some time.

Xyleth,

Your link is empty. I double checked the raw HTML and the link is empty. Could you please repost whatever link you intended?

Ghawar Is Dying
The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function. - Dr. Albert Bartlett

very odd. how about this ?

Thanks! That works.

Ghawar Is Dying
The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function. - Dr. Albert Bartlett

Link for aircraft carrier locations - don't know how accurate

http://www.ne.jp/asahi/gonavy/atsugi/gonavy604.html

Maybe a surprise land invasion from Oman's Musandam Peninsula, walking across a floating bridge of US Navy ships? ;-)

The time for games is over?!

U.S. winds up war games in Gulf

The U.S. navy said on Thursday it had ordered an aircraft carrier to the Gulf to replace one of two patrolling the region, as the United States winds down naval war games on Iran's doorstep.

The Nimitz carrier strike group will sail from San Diego for the Gulf on Monday, a navy spokesman told Reuters, to replace the Dwight D. Eisenhower, as tensions mount between Iran and the West over captured British troops and Iran's nuclear programme.

"She (the Nimitz) will deploy to the Gulf region. She is the relief for Eisenhower, who leaves and she replaces her," Lieutenant Commander Jeff Davis said by telephone from Naval Headquarters in Washington.

Strike groups typically include four or five frigates and destroyers and a submarine.

"You are looking at the early part of May that you would have the transition. It would be without any overlap. There is no plan to overlap them at all," he added.

The Eisenhower and fellow carrier John C. Stennis took part in this week's U.S. war games, the largest in Gulf waters since 2003, when the U.S. led an invasion of Iraq.

The drills, which included anti-submarine, anti-surface and mine warfare drills, end on Thursday. For the first time since the Iraq invasion four years ago, two U.S. aircraft carriers were deployed in the Gulf.

Fifth Fleet spokesman Lieutenant-Commander Charlie Brown said there were currently no plans for more.

"We do not expect to have three carriers in the Gulf region ... but we cannot talk about future needs or future operations," he said.

For a list of ships and aircraft carrier strike groups, see:
Massive Deployment of Naval Power directed against Iran

"we could easily see a 50% drop in net oil exports by the top 10 net oil exporters within five years". You have said this a number of times, wt, but what approximate % reduction in TOTAL oil on the open market would that equate to? Presume it's much less than 50%, maybe 25%? Even the latter would be pretty devastating.