62 comments on Three Pieces of Peak Oil Media: Simmons/Kilduff and Pickens on CNBC on GAO/Peak Oil and Kunstler on Peak Oil and the Car Culture
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62 comments on Three Pieces of Peak Oil Media: Simmons/Kilduff and Pickens on CNBC on GAO/Peak Oil and Kunstler on Peak Oil and the Car Culture
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I'm currently in the midst of trying to share this with everyone I know in the UK. I don't really care if people belive me or not, I just want them to start investigating for themselves.
However there is one thing that is bugging me / holding out hope. One person in particualr, a person whom I trust and admire, has worked in the Oil industry in the past. He is adamant in his belife that there is a fortune in untapped oil in deep water off the west coast of Africa that will save our collective asses. Claims to have worked on companies that prospected for it and that they are simply keeping the discoveries close to their chest for commercial reasons.
I've already argued that I think it unlikely that any Oil Company would not disclose a find of that size, the incentives in terms of stock price rewards for them to announce seem to big to ignore. However a niggle of doubt / hope remains.
I've searched around for west African oil and not found a lot, my google-fu is weak on this issue it seems.
Can any of the TODers here set me straight? Is there a bonanza of oil sat off the west coast of Africa? If not what is there and why would anyone think there was? What are the issues around this?
Finally many, many thanks to every single one of you who contribute so much to this site in the way of analysis and writeups. It's a fantastic resource and one that makes navigating the waters of this issue that much eaiser.
There are some really good fields off the coast of Africa.
However, note that when Hubbert did his model for the Lower 48, a one-third increase in his URR estimate only extended the peak date by 5 years, from 1966 to 1971.
If we date the modern oil industry in the US from the Spindletop discovery in 1901, this one-third increase in the URR estimate and the five year period of additional growth in oil production extended the modern petroleum growth phase in the Lower 48 by about 8%--70 years instead of 65 years.
I'm sure that the math is very similar for the world.
The question is when, not if, an exponential growth rate in consumption versus a finite resource base proves impossible to sustain.
How good are these West African fields? Do you have any data on them? Can we get an article? How much time would they buy us?