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GAIA Host Collective
"I don't find the "return to quota" explanation very appealing"
Looks more like a "return to below quota" at a glance.
"I don't find the "return to quota" explanation very appealing"
Just 'glancing' at the first chart - without the average production, I see that Saudi production tends to lead the quotas (especially for IEA data). That is what it is doing now. I fail to see an anomoly based on the chart..
----
My grandfather pumped oil with an engine-house,
my father pumped oil with a 20 lb. electric motor,
can't I just pump it online?
But I'd say that they're historically quick to lead on the upside and reluctant to lead on the downside. You'll also notice that when prices were going up, or were staying high, they were far exceeding the quota (most likely to take advantage of the high prices). So that last bit of the trend, being quick to lead on towards the downside, and at or below quota during times of high prices, represents a departure from history (over the span of that graph) to me.
Re: So that last bit of the trend... represents a departure from history (over the span of that graph) to me.
Yes but oil inventories are still at record level for OCDE countries and OPEC has historically always used inventory levels as a way to assess the demand and supply equilibrium.
ROFLMAO Great tag line. Keep that.
Actually to me it looks like quotas are reactive to what production is already doing.
Request
I'll put up a new thread after I get home tonight (Pacific time) -- as this one is getting full -- but in the meantime, if anyone isn't busy and wants to help the project, see if you can dig out any information that bears on the thickness of the Arab D reservoir throughout Ghawar, and particularly in North 'Ain Dar. We have the Greg Croft average numbers for each area, but if someone can find a map or picture that shows in detail how the reservoir thickness varies throughout the topography, I think that would be a big help.
Don't know if this is what you are looking for but here is a title: Geostatistical Model for the Arab-D Reservoir, North 'Ain Dar Pilot, Ghawar Field, Saudi Arabia: An Improved Reservoir Simulation Model.
Behind firewall at:
http://www.gulfpetrolink.net/publication/vol1.php
This one has lots of pretty pictures.
http://www.searchanddiscovery.com/documents/2004/afifi01/index.htm
Deleted
Sorry, I just posted the Greg Croft URL before realizing you already had it.
Hello SS,
Jean Laherrere has an excellent, next generation 3D rendering of Ghawar looking from the SW --> NE [opposite direction of garyp's post]:
http://lpsc.in2p3.fr/gpr/Dautreppe/Laherrere/Image78.jpg
This might come in handy later, maybe Jean has original software.
F_F & Euan: I am fascinated with Uthmaniyah's far eastern ridgeline. If you look at GaryP's cross-sections and compare with Ghawar Oil Sat graphic--hasn't the waterfront rolled over the crest? How is the fractional flow skewed, watercut ratio best managed, and reservoir sweep best accomplished with pressurized water going downhill? I have no idea, hope you can help SS out.
Where do garyp's slices go on the Laherrere 3D and on this Uthmaniyah Graph [scroll down inside website please]:
http://home.entouch.net/dmd/ghawar.htm
Notice this above graphic from Alexander was in 1996-- has Uthmaniyah had a lot worse waterfront problems since then? We can't see the Western side of the Eastern Crest
My guess is the thick green rollover about halfway down Uthmaniyah Eastern ridge, but on the unseen western side in the Ghawar Oil Sat is where those slices best match up--but you guys might have better ideas!
From Greg Croft website:
--------------------------------
The fact that the Ghawar oil-water contact is substantially higher on the west flank than on the east indicates a hydrodynamic gradient to the east, which may explain the much larger volume of oil in Ghawar than in Khurais.
The oil-water contact at Ghawar dips to the northeast, dipping more than 660 feet between the southwest end of Haradh and the Fazran area.
-------------------------------------
This suggests to me that Aramco should have put Uthmaniyah's water injection more heavily on the west side to drive the oil east and upcrest--they did the opposite [eastside injection wells watered over the crest in a western direction instead]. Could you explain?
Another thing from Ghawar Oil Sat graphic: why is the Southern lower half of Abqaiq orange instead of yellow--what is the significance? Major reservoir sweep problems compared to Northern lower half, which is solid yellow?
One last thing:
When I blow up the PDF of the Ghawar Oil Sat graphic with the magnifying tool to 1600%--you get much more detail--for example the Shedgum to Uthmaniyah thin connection looks all blue at normal resolution but shows green breakthrough at high magnification. Farzan is only 3 miles wide at its max [approx. 3 cells wide at 1600%]--can this be a tool to generate our own cells for our own Ghawar graphics?
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Bob, your doing an amazing job here digging up all this stuff - heres the picture you posted. Does Lahererere indicate what the coluours mean here? I'll respond to your questions in a separate post
http://lpsc.in2p3.fr/gpr/Dautreppe/Laherrere/Image78.jpg
Any idea on the data source(s) for this impressive graphic ? Date of data ?
My guess is that this is an educated guess for today based on available information.
It may be worth noting that the most important thing I have learned so far from this extended discussion is NOT when Ghawar production will drop
A) Now
B) Very Soon
C) Soon
although that it is critically important.
The most important lesson is that it will be a very sudden and rapid collapse for each affected section, and the "at risk" sections (see multiple choice above) total an irreplacable ~4 million b/day !
Best Hopes,
Alan
Hello Euan,
Sorry, can't help with any more details on the graphic--I don't know French.
The TopToders have got to carry the ball forward. I have practically turned into a zombie trying to stay up with you guys. I have even been googling, then reading sponge coring links after F_F mentioned it---is that sick? =)
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
OK Bob, doing the same as yesterday (and wasting even more time).
First off the modeling grid from the "When 4D seismic is not available: Alternative Monitoring Scenarios..." and "Reservoir Monitoring with Permanent Bore Hole sensors", both by Shiv Dasgupta are the same. You can have great fun lining the things up and finding that there are more bore holes on one than there are on the other. That means we have the top down data from one and the cross section data from the other to compare.
Doing the now normal and arranging each on top of the 3D view leads to the two resultant image below. Its harder to decide exactly where these lie this time, but I think this is about right. I've highlighted the area I think is oil from the cross section in the overlay.
Thus in 2004 there was a good 120feet of oil across a reasonable area of Uthmaniyah.
Everyone can now commence saying I've got it all wrong !
Has anyone "picked up the phone" so to speak and called/wrote greg croft, Laherrere and asked to signon and take a look at the discussions here? Matt Simmons talked about this series of posts(financialsense.com), etc.
These two as an example have put alot of work into these pictures and graphs, would they be interested in the discussions here?
How about sending out emails to Heinberg, Croft, Laherrere, Simmons and asking them to take a look and maybe comment?
Worth a try.