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"I don't find the "return to quota" explanation very appealing"
Just 'glancing' at the first chart - without the average production, I see that Saudi production tends to lead the quotas (especially for IEA data). That is what it is doing now. I fail to see an anomoly based on the chart..
----
My grandfather pumped oil with an engine-house,
my father pumped oil with a 20 lb. electric motor,
can't I just pump it online?
But I'd say that they're historically quick to lead on the upside and reluctant to lead on the downside. You'll also notice that when prices were going up, or were staying high, they were far exceeding the quota (most likely to take advantage of the high prices). So that last bit of the trend, being quick to lead on towards the downside, and at or below quota during times of high prices, represents a departure from history (over the span of that graph) to me.
Re: So that last bit of the trend... represents a departure from history (over the span of that graph) to me.
Yes but oil inventories are still at record level for OCDE countries and OPEC has historically always used inventory levels as a way to assess the demand and supply equilibrium.
ROFLMAO Great tag line. Keep that.