Antionetta: IMHO, you are going to lose a lot of listeners when you jump from the reality of global oil depletion to the possibility of an oil depletion caused worldwide finanical crash and depression that will make the 30s look like fun. Global growth is currently extremely strong with slightly declining oil consumption. If you tell your listeners that oil consumption equals wealth creation they are going to ask you to prove it (good luck).

Antionetta,

I have come to the conclusion that the term "Peak Oil" does not go over well with the general populace. I find I have much better luck discussing things if I talk in terms of supply shortfalls. I find discussions of demand growth vs. production growth to work well. Talk about consistent 2% growth in the US, plus surging demand in China and India.

If they are still open and receptive after that, you can talk about the lack of reserve growth, and how lots of companies are actually producing more reserves then they can produce every year.

If your audience hasn't glazed over yet, you can next mention the lack of new Giant oil fields being found. In the past we got a large percentage of our oil from these huge fields. Now we're having to try and procure the oil from smaller and smaller fields.

Lastly, if you still have any body left listening, you can talk about how the new oil that we find and produce is in increasingly difficult areas to produce. New oil fields are still being found, but they are in harsher environments, deeper locations beneath the ground, as well as ever increasing ocean depths for off shore wells.

Stress that it's not so much that there isn't more oil (there is) it's just getting harder and more expensive to produce smaller and smaller amounts.

Good luck,

Garth

Some suggestions:

1. First, realize you're never going to open a conversation about Peak Oil and proceed to lay out some arguments and convince someone right there. The best you can manage is to plant the seed and that they will follow up on discovering what it's all about on their own.

2. If they realize that oil is finite and will deplete, that's great, but you need to move them to the point of understanding that production peaks around the time the half the oil is gone, and so it's not a matter of running out, it's a matter of supply-and-demand causing prices to rise after that point is reached.

3. Ask lots of questions instead of telling them things. Ask what they think will happen. Ask until they tell you they don't know, and then stop. There's your seed. If you tell them things, then they can argue against them. If they're telling you things, then you can question them until they themselves learn where the limits of their ideas are.

4. Bring books to meetings like "Twilight in the Desert" and "The End of Oil" and "The Long Emergency". Hopefully someone will ask you what they're about.

Good luck, Antoinetta!

That's a very attractive name, makes me feel good just rolling it around my tongue.

I find it difficult talking about Peak Oil to people. But I have noticed a pattern emerging. Those people who have a great deal invested in the "system" and have a lot to loose, are the one's who reject the idea the most forcefully. On the other hand, I've actually tried conversing about the subject with few individuals who are literally hanging on to society with their fingertips. Bums, junkies and winoes. Oddly, it's them who seem most receptive to the idea that the whole cardhouse could come crashing down. Is it because they've seen through the veil? Is it because they don't have that much to lose? Is it because they secretly want everybody to feel their pain too? Is it because they somehow know that the rest of us are all plastic palace people?

<Googling>Veeery Interesting ... </Googled>

Maybe y'all can have Woolsey come out and talk again:
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2460#comment-180174

| _{The problem will solve itself.}
|  _{But not in a nice way.}

Asking for help is the smartest thing you could do. There must be lots of TOD people in your area.

Absolutely NOBODY seems to be capable of imagining any other paradigm that our 200+ year-old business as usual, i.e.: eternal economic growth.

There are. Look for them in your area's "buy local" campaign, your local "slow food" group, and your local farmer's market.

It's fairly easy to make the case that many of the problems we see now are the result of unlimited growth in a finite environment. No tin foil hat there. What you propose to do about it is harder. I think your best bet is hooking up with some others - don't need many.

cfm in Gray, ME

Been trying to avoid TOD, time management, disposition thing but its tough so real quick.

Antoinetta the third,

"Peak Oil" is currently a loaded term, says you may hold odd and currently non mainstream ideas. "Oil Shortage" is likewise loaded from the 1970s. Maybe try something along the lines of, "Energy prices have been increasing rapidly in the recent past and there are many reasons to believe this trend will continue for the foreseeable future. We need to be sure to provide for this contingency in any future plans we make". Avoids the topic but gets at the crux of the problem. Instead of hearing PO people will hear about rising energy costs and be thinking, "heck yea, darn tootin' right", etc. but the measures to take are the same, except for the drastic measures. And really telling someone they are crazy to build their 1000 unit condo complex after they already have the blueprints for their villa in France just doesn't go over well. Best wishes on this.

As regards talking with people about PO, I've had some rather anomalous experiences. Mentioned PO to my sister who lives with her family on an acre with some fruit trees and chickens and well water next to a vineyard in Northern California. She said she she mentioned to her husband maybe they should move into the city to which he evidently replied, "What if they riot" 'nuff said. Told two of my older brothers to Google Peak oil. Since heard that one has bought stock in coal and the other in oil. Which says to me, yes we are aware and consider this an issue. Though it might pain me a bit to admit it, I consider them very responsible members of society so its not like you say "uproot your family and move to a tree fort in rural Vermont".

Hard to say how all this will turn out. In clinical trials and medicine there is a term called "regression to the mean". This implies that one gets a really extraordinary piece of data it is often an outlier and regresses to the mean when the test or trial is repeated. On this board I've heard a similar idea presented as "extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence" Also just looking at probabilities in most instances there are a large number of ways for things to turn out ordinarily and very few for them to turn out extraordinarily. Unfortunately, week by week the extraordinary case seems to my judgment to gain increasing support. Let's hope even if the extraordinary is valid we all come through without to much hardship.

Best Wishes
PDM

Hi Antoinetta - I'm across the Bay in Berkeley. We have some smart people here and one can generally convince them about the validity of PO although it's not what they'd prefer to listen to. I'm sure they put it out of their minds immediately (and try to avoid me in the future!). I think humans are basically optimistic and are genetically programmed to reject news that the world is going to hell-in-a-handbag. I’ve been advocating simple steps like putting in European-style bike lanes so we aren’t forced to use our cars. You’d think Berkeley could pull this off – but it’s uphill all the way.

I don’t think anything will be done to address PO until we’re smacked in the face with high gas prices. These will likely co-exist with a collapsing economy triggered by the bursting housing bubble. The housing tumble is just starting and will extend for 2 to 3 years as waves of adjustable no-doc mortgages reset. And for those who would like something new to worry about, check out the sites tracking unfunded municipal and state debt. I think Simmons is right – by the end of this year will see price hikes that start to convince folks that something is going on.

It all adds up to a very dismal future – hopefully just a steady decline – but who wants to think about this. Part of the problem is not knowing which direction things will go: Japanese-style deflation, hyper-inflation, or mad max-time. Do I buy puts on stocks or a bolt-hole in Idaho?

"She's a pratical, hard-working woman--nobody's fool. She thinks everything through before acting. Yet gradually it has dawned on me that "everything will work out" means for her that no matter what happens (no matter whether our plans work out or not) we are loyal and caring for each other."

Sounds to me like you are a very lucky man Ric. Take care of each other!

I'd prefer to have my family on board, at least the ones that I could stand to live with. Any of my trusted friends as well. It will be good to have friends post peak who are as prepared as you are. It doesn't matter how awesome you are, you have to sleep sometime, and it's good to have someone keeping an eye on things while that happens. :) (Literally and metaphorically.. Simply put, one person can't do everything.)

"Do not forget to by some popcorn to chew on when you are watching the drama."

Can't do that - all the popcorn went to the ethanol plant :-(

Having infected my girlfriend with the concepts of Peak Oil, global heating, collapse of complex societies, resource depletion, loss of biodiversity, species and habitat destruction and the like, she is now referred to as "Debbie Downer" by her family....

Talking about Peak Oil really does make one sound like a prophet, a prophet of doom. Doom isn't a subject most people want to talk or think about, which is understandable and reasonable.

I agree with Dan Simmons, if I've understood him correctly, that it's not so much the actually shortage of availble oil, in the short term, that is our big problem. The Big Problem isn't Peak Oil. The real trouble is how the market will react to the "news" once it goes mainstream. For lots of reasons the stock market has a tendancy to overreact to good and bad news. We are currently in a precarious situation, especially in the US where the housing bubble may be collapsing, with potentially dire consequences for the american economy. Already the US is weighed down by a mountain of debt, borrowing well over ten billion dollars a week and wasting over a trillion a year in military expenditure.

So, if Peak Oil suddenly pops onto the front pages on top of everything else, we could be heading for a very rough ride indeed.

I'm beginning to find a bit of acceptance in those near me. My wife, a most wonderful person, is very PO aware and fully supportive. (or visa versa) People at work are coming around one by one. I gave a talk this weekend and afterward the discussion went right to gardening, co-ops, and lifestyle.

I believe a big hurddle is realizing that PO may not be the end of the world it simply means TEOTWAWKI. A big difference there. Just maybe we can still live and be 'happy'.

So much of the pain that we will experience will be self inflicted. Not by conditions but the fear of what those conditions will mean. And that will make it worse.
If the oil supply is threatened how likely are we to make lifestyle changes our first priority? No we'll react in the interest of National Security, of course. The gas is $4 in Death Valley. A friend asked a trucker. "What will you do if it get's really high?" He said we'll just pass it along to the consumer. Not a hint that perhaps the cargo better be pretty damn essential if that's gonna work. "Get thee to the non-....

There is some discretionary behavior that is about to unfold both globally and locally. Americans are probably going to believe that the world depends on their dollars a whole lot more than they really do. Nobody wants our piggy bank full of IOU's. Where will the oil go? If it moves at all, it'll go where both the money and the political influence are.
In Africa for instance the Chinese are making deals while we plan military bases. Our gameplan looks flawed.

My point. We better be ready to make the mother of all transitions in the way we run our lives. Also, unless we can get the word out to enough people of what to expect, they are going to find some above ground cause to blame. As with the TPTB program you don't want to be that above ground cause.

That's why the sit back and enjoy the show idea worries me. I'm pretty sure this show can jump right through the camera lense and into our living room. Kunstler is right to go after the media. Better to keep trying to get the word out. I still believe forewarned people will make better choices.