The Oil Drum | Saudi Arabia's Reserve "Depletion Rates" provide Strong Evidence to Support Total Reserves of 175 Gb with only 65 Gb Remaining

159 comments on Saudi Arabia's Reserve "Depletion Rates" provide Strong Evidence to Support Total Reserves of 175 Gb with only 65 Gb Remaining

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jkissing on April 20, 2007 - 12:21pm

Great post, interesting to come up with a reserve estimate using sa values. GLad to see it got its own thread.

"However, what is not consistent on Fig 3 is showing Ghawar’s depletion at 48% while Total Saudi Aramco is only 28%. Since Ghawar production has been a majority of Aramco’s total production, the depletion for Total Saudi Aramco should be at least 48%."
This statement cannot be right - it implies that if ghawar's depletion was 100% sa would be 100% depleted. SA's 28% would be about right if ghawar contains about half of sa reserves, was produced first, and is about half depleted.

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memmel on April 20, 2007 - 12:41pm

Your right the statement is wrong but your answer is I believe wrong its not that simple since its a weighted average. The correct answer is 56% as presented later. The simple statement although incorrect is "less" wrong than your 28% correction :)

He should say something like with Ghawar representing 50% of reserves and at a 48% depletion its unlikely that a total depletion of 28% is correct.

The real answer of course depends on how the rest of the fields where produced. If nothing but Ghawar was produced you would have a low depletion percentage in the teens.

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Spaceman on April 21, 2007 - 12:50am

Agreed. Tired of digging down to the bottom of a Drumbeat to look for Ace's posts. Thanks Khebab.

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159 comments on Saudi Arabia's Reserve "Depletion Rates" provide Strong Evidence to Support Total Reserves of 175 Gb with only 65 Gb Remaining

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