159 comments on Saudi Arabia's Reserve "Depletion Rates" provide Strong Evidence to Support Total Reserves of 175 Gb with only 65 Gb Remaining
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159 comments on Saudi Arabia's Reserve "Depletion Rates" provide Strong Evidence to Support Total Reserves of 175 Gb with only 65 Gb Remaining
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GAIA Host Collective
Nothing surprising about what I'm saying if you hit peak oil world wide we face conditions that our ancestors use to face for thousands of years. They were not dumb people and our ability to make our recent technical leaps has a lot more to do with oil than some sort of superior intelligence. Periodic collapse of civilizations in the past plus a low energy base has a lot to do with the lack of a industrial civilization until we hit a triple play home run of the New World/Coal/Oil.
A lot of things had to come together to ignite our current civilization and we seem to forget this.
Civilizations die get over it.
Lets hope we can keep enough together to build a new better one for our children.
Mmmm, that typically takes what, 1000 years? Maybe
not such a bad thing.
Everything moves faster today :)
Seriously though we don't have the right economy to handle disruptions from oil supply problems. Everything has gone to just in time overseas production. It will unravel pretty quickly until we adjust to a older style of doing business with significant stocks of critical components. I hope and expect us to simply have serious problems with the random riot and burning slum.
In general we are in a far worse position today to deal with problems than we where even 10 years ago. I think you will be unpleasantly surprised at how fast things unravel. These last ten years of SUV's, McMansions and globalization probably increased the pain by a order of magnitude. Its like we have done everything in our power to make peak oil as painful as possible. The biggest unknown is that a lot of the people that will suffer demand destruction actually live in the same cities as the wealthy its unclear they will take dropping to a third world living standard peacefully.
Large parts of greater Los Angeles will burn for sure how this effects the rest of the US is unknown. On the east coast you have a number of the older poor cities that could potentially succumb to rioting. In the San Francisco area Oakland for example is likely to suffer riots. I think these demand destruction riots and resulting crashes in property values as people flee the effected regions will cause serious problems for the US.
I don't know Europe well enough but I'd expect Paris to have problems maybe other cities. They have good enough public transport that fuel costs are not as threatening there.
Back in the US we have a large enough concentration of poor in certain areas that depend on gasoline we are certain to have riots initiated at gas stations if they don't start for other reasons. Its hard to guess how the migration from these hot spot metropolitan areas will effect the US.
Certainly property value will plummet and business will leave the effected region the question is will it initiate a feedback mechanism causing further problems in itself. This is unknown. Near many of these poor regions is some of the most expensive property in the country so your looking at loosing a lot of wealth. America has never really had large regions that are no longer under the rule of law I'm sure we will contain the problems but at what cost ?
If your super rich and have a big house in Santa Monica I'd sell that puppy soon if you need the money. In general I'd not own anything near Compton that I could not afford to lose. Oakland I don't know well enough to guess where a riot could concentrate. Where I live in Orange County the city of Santa Anna is a potential flash enough of a concern I won't buy property in the area regardless of price. Its a double problem because its population contains a lot of illegal immigrant that work in the declining housing industry so the combo of peak oil and job loss without workers comp will make the region esp volatile. I'm sure a lot of the other poor areas in California have this same double impact situation from the collapsing housing industry and oil. Its a really bad time to have price spikes in gasoline in CA.
We have plenty of A*&Holes with Hummers in this area the chances of a Hummer being part of the cause of riots in orange county is very high.
In general worldwide riots by demanded destructed poor will be a big factor in how peak oil plays out. These riots are not the end of the world but it will fuel our downward decline. The collateral damage can easily push regions over the edge.
On the subject of riots/collateral damage, I remember a few weeks/months back where in Pakistan, people were attacking the local power utility station because of "load shedding" and blackouts.
This is the challenge going forward...people insist on blaming big oil for all their problems. So, you can easily see the leap to damaging refineries/pipelines etc.
It's the "if I can't have, no one can, rationale"
This was evident again last year(?) in the UK with the refinery blockade by truckers. It nearly caused a national disaster, and brought the country to its knees.
These gut reactions on the part of the public will likely be the death spiral of industrial civilisation.
That said, I am personally hoping for little green men to arrive and hand me the patent for Mr. Fusion. :P
I am a bit surprised that you think today's poor will be the only source of rioters.
Take today's low six figure income :whatever:, deprieve him (they riot more than her) of a job (even minimum wage, a house, all of his possessions & "savings" and even a place to sleep (except a squat in a foreclosed property). No social support before, he has developed just some minimal social network since TSHTF *like many Americans, he lacks that skill set.
I see him as a greater riot risk than today's poor.
Alan
First since their is a good chance that peak oil will help initiate a chronic recession of some other sort. A lot of these rioting poor will be former six figure incomes and hard working middle class. Economic problems will drive them into the poorer areas. Next the only reason I focused on the poor is that they are the ones who would suffer demand destruction first. In general its anyone who is living on the edge or past it regardless of income that has to work. A lot of Americans cannot suffer a few hundred dollar increase in expenses since they are in debt way over their heads. Persistent 5+ dollar a gallon gasoline coupled with attempt to use monetary inflation to hide uncontrollable rises in resource prices to keep the economy going will ensure widespread price inflation. When your customer prints the money he pays you with life is interesting.
The first people that are effected are the working poor who live with what I call the shiftless poor. And I grew up in Holly Springs Mississippi so I'm familiar with all the various forms of poverty its not just someones income.
I don't expect it to stay contained as you mention. But I would suspect the wealthier people would engage in marches and the like that will eventually be brutally put down.
One thing about suburbia its not a good place to have a old fashioned riot since the government offices are downtown you have to attack something. Suburbia either by accident or design is effective at limiting active political action.
jbunt
memmel
At first, I thought it was a typo (excusable) - (how this "effects" the rest of US) should be "affects"
then (people flee the "effected" regions) should be "affected"
then (business will leave the "effected" region) should be "affected"
and finally (A*&Holes with Hummers) shows your mindset
Why are so many posters likw you eager for peak oil? You guys want it SOOO BAAD!! You want the A*&Holes to be forced back to Walden Pond with you, where you think that everything in the world will then be right.
Well, according to this site, the A*&Holes with Hummers do not have a clue about peak oil - along with most other Amerians, so why call them that?
With respect to the Walden Pond that you desire, just look at New Orelans without power. That is what anyplace and everyplace in America will look like if there is not enough power.
All Walden Pond posters should identify themselves as such in their lead sentence.
I truly think you miss a major thread among many TOD posters (often American) - that is, the 'A*&Holes with Hummers' are going to destroy Walden Pond, along with anyone suggesting that doing so is just plain idiocy.
The other point is that many here also think what the 'A*&Holes with Hummers' believe, as compared to what they do, won't matter anyways - there will be less oil, regardless of what the 'A*&Holes with Hummers' want.
Very few people here think Walden Pond is an option - as a matter of fact, the number of such posters probably hovers around zero.
Maybe you should do some reading before writing something that seems to fit your pre-conceived notions. For example, this quote from memmel - 'These last ten years of SUV's, McMansions and globalization probably increased the pain by a order of magnitude. Its like we have done everything in our power to make peak oil as painful as possible. The biggest unknown is that a lot of the people that will suffer demand destruction actually live in the same cities as the wealthy its unclear they will take dropping to a third world living standard peacefully.
Large parts of greater Los Angeles will burn for sure how this effects the rest of the US is unknown. On the east coast you have a number of the older poor cities that could potentially succumb to rioting. In the San Francisco area Oakland for example is likely to suffer riots. I think these demand destruction riots and resulting crashes in property values as people flee the effected regions will cause serious problems for the US.'
Doesn't sound like Walden Pond to me.
The pond will shrink to the last bullfrog, pretty tough on us tadpoles.