The Oil Drum

Desparate men, like the current Bush administration, living in uncertain times, often take desparate measures.

They are just as aware of the problems relating to Peak Oil, as anyone on this site, probably more so, as they have access to better data. I think we'd be both arrogant and foolish to imagine TODers are the only people who can examine the data and put two and two together. There is a mass of evidence supporting the view that the CIA and the Pentagon are doing precisely this analysis, only I don't believe they come to the same conclusions people here do. I don't believe their "Doomers" but, rather, "Can-Doers".

They really Believe that Iraq probably contains a vast untapped oil reserve, perhaps on a level with Saudi Arabia. They might be right, though it's unlikely. But maybe they know something we don't? If the Whitehouse convinced itself that Iraq contained WMD's, why can't we assume they've convinced themselves that Iraq contains massive, untapped reserves?

Given the high stakes, it's easy to see why people would rather choose a comforting delusion, rather than face daunting and ghastly reality, that the age of cheap oil is definitively over.

Throughout history people, often the best educated, have believed in all sorts of things that were clearly false and dangerous; racism, withcraft, astrologi... These beliefs often had catastrophic results in the real world, but that didn't stop people believing. Faith is powerful.