<Oilwatch Monthly - May 2007 The Oil Drum May 15th Senate Hearings on Oil and Gas: We May Have A Problem>
<DrumBeat: May 20, 2007 DrumBeat DrumBeat: May 22, 2007>

197 comments on DrumBeat: May 21, 2007

Comments can no longer be added to this story.

Show without comments | PDF version

GreyZone on May 21, 2007 - 4:50pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Let's state your proposition the other way around - a 3% shortfall in meeting demand caused a doubling in price. What will another 3% shortfall cause? And another? And another?

Also, you are nitpicking. It's still exponential growth. A 4% projected growth rate results in doubling of demand in 17.5 years. A 1.5% projected growth rate results in doubling of demand in 46 years. Do you seriously think petroleum production can grow to 170 million barrels per day by 2053?

Ghawar Is Dying
The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function. - Dr. Albert Bartlett

Comments can no longer be added to this story.
TechGuy on May 21, 2007 - 8:06pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

>Let's state your proposition the other way around - a 3% shortfall in meeting demand caused a doubling in price. What will another 3% shortfall cause? And another? And another?

It won't be linear. Once past peak production, economic growth will slow or end. This will put a crimp on demand growth. Thus the price of oil will not go to infinitely as supply slowly dwindles to zero.

Comments can no longer be added to this story.

197 comments on DrumBeat: May 21, 2007

Comments can no longer be added to this story.

Show without comments | PDF version