94 comments on Living for the Moment while Devaluing the Future
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94 comments on Living for the Moment while Devaluing the Future
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Nate, great piece!
The great mass of humanity isn't smart enough to either understand this information or to devote enough time to actually change. Its the flaw of our republic, and most of the rest of the world that the leaders respond to what their constituency wants to hear, not what is best for them. And, since I believe we are definitely in population overshoot, the conclusions and proper actions will be unpaletable to say the least.
I'd like to think I'm a rational person, but a cold, hard look at my own behaviour shows me I'm a master at ex post facto reasoning and justification. And, I'm a recovering addict and alcoholic to boot, male, and a smoker addicted to the worst form of compulsive gambling-oil and gas exploration. My discount rate is off a cliff!
I don't have a good answer for adjusting to peak oil. I'm preparing my home, trying to get more oil and gas income based on production, and trying to get totally out of debt. I think WT's ELP program makes the most sense. But, if I get totally off the grid and my neighbors have nothing, will I get killed? If I predict peak oil and educate my neighbors, will I suffer the fate of Cassandra? Sometimes its worse being right than stupid.
Re oilmanbob:
I dont believe that 'the great mass of humanity' is getting this information so their intelligence is irrelevant.
I dont believe that our current administration is 'responding to what their constituenccy wants to hear.' If they were then why did my congressman stop answering my letters and why are both parties ignoring the results of the 06 elections?
I dont believe that 'most of the rest of world leaders are responding to what their constituencies want to hear.' Many of them are tyrannical dictatorships that loose the cops and/or the army on any sort of demonstration by their 'constituents' who are attempting to register their opinions, usually about the basest necessities of life.
I do believe that the world is in a state of population overshoot and the outcome has been predicted by many that are much more qualified than myself. Gaia will work it out.
I would like to think that I am a rational person but if I were I would not have bothered to write letters to a congressman. So far my only solution to peak oil has been to keep about sixty gallons stashed in the shed behind my house...thats not rational either for I live in the lightning capital of the US and might get blown to smithereens at any time. My only other preparation has been to stash ten large jars of Jif peanut butter and a bunch of crackers which are still edible even when stale.
By the time my gas and Jif run out I feel sure that FEMA will have come riding into town to my rescue.
River, I think intelligence and education have a lot to do with perception. It may sound elitest, but the people who write on theoildrum and read the blog are definitely members of the elite of the western world. I live in a very mixed urban neighborhood on Galveston Island. Believe me, most of my neighbors don't care-they don't vote. They're concerned with where to get money for the rent, what to eat and whats on the tube. They've allowed the glowing phosphors to lull them and dull them. They don't read, don't participate in community activities.
And its probably worse for the great mass of humanity. The illegal aliens that come to Galveston are the best people of Central and South America. They're ambitious, and willing to do any kind of work and send money home to their families saved from the pittance they've made. Same way with the illegal Africans and Asians in Houston-but they are totally disenfranchised. And its worse in their own countries.
In my opinion the US electoral system is totally screwed. The elections in 2000 and 2004 were stolen, and all the incumbents in 2006 thought they had the system wired so that they wouldn't loose, both republicrats and demicans. But the thing to remember is most of my neighbors did not vote. And they lacked the cojones to get in the streets when the elections were stolen. But, the most important thing to remember is nearly half of the people that voted in the last two elections supported the megalomaniacs in in office! They actually passed an amendment to the state constitution to prohibit gay marriage, which is purely irrelevant. I mean really, I'm a lot more concerned about my sex life than anyone elses.
I quoted Confucious in a comment down the thread because I think its important. We stand at the apex of a pyramid of altruism. The sum total of good in this world is the result of millions of our ancestors trying to be good. The sum total of knowledge, of improvement, of kindness and love exist because of other people trying their best to be better, to do better. And the world has definitely improved-we've officially abolished slavery in the last 200 years, and except in totally collapsed societies most people live longer and eat better than ever before. And, its all a sum total of most of the people in the world trying to be good for thousands of years. And its what gives me hope for the future.
Sure, there are monsters, and many of them gravitate to positions of power. But there are also many saints, and not just religeous ones. Look at the example of Che', or Einstein, or Richard Dawkins, or even the editors here trying to get out the truth in a free debate without pay, or the millions of teachers trying to help children at low wages. I know the saints far outnumber the monsters.
Oilmanbob, I certainly agree with you about the posters on TOD being elitist but I have a difficult time understanding why the word 'elitist' has become a tag that has often been hung on those that want an education and want to continue learning throughout their life by those that would rather spend their time watching the tube or frittering away their life in some other wasteful manner. Of course most of us spend some time frittering but I am refering to those that spend the large majority of their time wastefully. I live in an older upper middle class neighborhood in Ormond Beach Florida. The majority of my neighbors have owned their homes over ten years and some like my wife and I over twenty years. In my neighborhood we are a fairly close knit group and I would say that most are aware of peak oil, global warming and the real condition of our economy. The local newspaper, Daytona News Journal, is a little left leaning but by reading the letters to the editor it is evident that few if any of the letter writers are aware of any of these issues. The letters are primarily about skyrocketing home taxes, skyrocketing insurance costs, and the occasional yay or nay comment about Iraq. Recently as gas prices have gone up their has been some complaints about that as well but the letter writers fail to do their homework prior to sounding off and it shows. I think it is fair to say that most of them are sleepwalking their way through life but if Simmons is right they might get a wake up call if gas lines suddenly appear. Most of them need a wake up call.
We have a lot of 'illegal aliens' in this area and they started out cutting fern and picking citrus and vegetables but have moved into the construction trades in the past few years. You are right, they are hard working and family oriented and I dont have any problem with them staying in America. My take on the matter is a bit different...I believe that President Polk stole their lands in what is now the Southwestern US but was originally part of Mexico...they are simply taking back what was stolen from them.
As a great newspaper man for the Baltimore Sun once said 'eventually Americans are going to get exactly the government they deserve.' I believe that he has been proven right. When the common term for Americans changed from 'citizen' to 'consumer' I knew we were in trouble. Politicians use hot button issues like gay marriage and abortion to get out the vote. I dont see any need for legislation that reaches into the citizens bedrooms if they are consenting adults. I dont see a need for government to tell a woman what she can do with her body or fetus. These issues are for the reactionary one issue voters. They go to the polls vote the way that their pastors advised them and then go directly back to the tube without considering the looming issues that are really going to effect their lives.
I dont have much hope for the future. We have a lot of bad eggs in politics and I see no chance for a real leader to get elected. If we enter another era like the great depression then perhaps a real leader might get elected. Our current administration has turned the good will of most of the world against us at a time when we face peak oil, global warming and economic meltdown. I believe that the best possible outcome that we can hope for is to avoid a nuclear holocaust and become something resembling a banana republic. Strong governments stand on three pillars: economic strength (being a lender nation instead of a debtor really helps), strong alliances won through fairness, honesty and diplomacy, and last...military strength. We are teetering on the pillar of military strength because our government was taken over by idealogues that set out to use American military power against any and all nations that opposed our American ideals. These American idealogues believe that they have the right of military intervention to topple any regime that does not go along with American economic dominance of their economies. This approach has convinced all world governments that do not have nuclear weapons that they better damn sure get some if they want to avoid an American invasion. Our American idealogues have a wrong headed approach and they have landed our country in the situation that we find ourselves.
I agree with you that their have been many shining lites throughout world history. I read a lot and enjoy everything from history to microbiology. I admire many men of the past in all fields and there are currently some very brilliant people at work in the world but unfortunately none are working in our government and we are being overtaken by events that seem larger than any or all of us. I certainly hope I am wrong for I have six grandchildren that I would like to see get a good education and enjoy a rewarding life.
River,
I've pondered a lot of the same questions. I don't see most of the folks as elitest, but as definitely part of the elite. Spiro T. Agnew's "pointy-headed intellectuals". The disparaging reference is quite intentional, because of the way that the great mass of people react to people who are intellegent-we threaten them.
Intelligence is distributed on a bell curve, and what is described by standard IQ tests seems to be pattern recognition and the speed of learning and thought. If you are fairly bright you think and learn at a greater speed, and that threatens the vast majority. But, since its described as a bell curve, its important for anyone who is smart to recognise that he or she is just as big a freak as a retarded person. The subjective result of being intellegent is the bright person thinks or emotes more quickly than others, and it may even be a type of mental aberation that is most commonly associated with other mental aberations like alcoholism or addiction, depression, bi-polar disorder, schizophrenia or creativity. It behooves all of us to have this humility.
At any rate, when a person has a peak oil epiphany they've made connections not available to the common mass-that oil depletes, that its totally necessary to our society, that we might not find a substitute as good-and this threatens the powers that be as well as the herd. Nobody wants radical change in their whole lifesyle, so they blame the bearers of the news. Global warming becomes the fault of the environmentalists, depletion is the fault of the peak oil cultists because we are pulling back the curtains that show the Wizard at the Machinery. This will really kick into action when the US reaches the anger stage of its greif over the demise of fossil fuels. Even the arch fiend George W. Bush said we are addicted to fossil fuels, and the recovery process will have a lot of similarities. Maybe we need a 12 step program for automobiles! We admitted we were powerless over gasoline and that our lives had become unmanageable...
Let's look at what happened to the Grecco-Roman civilisation and compare it to modern history. It was built on the backs of slaves captured in conquest, just as we use the 25,000 hours of work equivalent stored in a barrel of crude as our slaves. Their democracies were destroyed by the need for conquest to keep slaves coming, just as ours is by the need for oil and the militarism connected with it. And, when the conquest stagnated, the empire collapsed, just as ours is threatening to do. It was overwhelmed by oriental religeons and the nature of the elite changed. Christianity might very well do the same for us. Our founders were diests and atheists, and our new tyrants are christian right, just as Constantine converted to Catholicism.
I don't have an answer. Nearly half of the voters alligned themselves with the Neocons-and maybe 30% still do. The coup by the Supreme Court and crooks may be the last of free elections in America. We might be facing a population collapse and descent into barbarism. Or, universal education and communicatios advances may raise the great unwashed masses to a new Utopia.
Oilmanbob, I have thought about the problem that is created by the disparity of intelligence of people but this is one of those subjects that is almost never discussed. I believe that many intelligent people purposely 'dumb down' as a means of camoflage because they dont want to be seen as 'different' than whatever group they find themselves in. After all, to be different is usually a cause for one to be ostricized. These smart people have chosen to remain in the tribe over seeking knowledge that they dont have and sharing it with those in the tribe that really need it so that all can make informed decisions. I suppose that acting dumb to remain a member is a survival instinct but it also puts the entire tribe at risk. I think it is a better action to give the tribe the information that they need than to remain silent and humble. That is probably an altruistic view. I read 'The Bell Curve' a some years ago and found nothing in it particularly disturbing and then I was astounded at what an uproar that book caused in the population. I dont know if the information contained in that book was all accurate but I supposed that it was since it was written by people knowledgeable in their fields. In any case, there are very smart people of all ethnicities and some not so smart. I remember as a child hearing the preamble to our constitution for the first time and even at that early age there was something about it that did not ring true. Later in life I realized that it was the line 'that all men are created equal.' I didnt buy that as a child and I dont buy it now. A person with intelligence and armed with knowledge in a modern society is not equal to one without those assets. One of my favorite scientists and writers is Sir Fred Hoyle (unfortunately he is no longer with us). Mr Hoyle was sort of a maverick but well educated in Physics, Astronomy, Genetics and Microbiology ..
an all around curious type of person, he was. Mr Hoyle was one of the formulators of the 'steady state' theory of the universe when the 'big bang' theory was being embraced by most scientists in the field. Mr Hoyle wrote many books but one of the most interesting was 'The Intelligent Universe', in which he took on Darwinisim. Its difficult to summarize such a book but basically Mr. Hoyle thought that evolution was caused by the earths constant bombardment by microrganisms that can do everything from give us a common cold to causing great leaps in evolution. Not only that, Mr. Hoyle after a lifetime of study, stated that their was no way that life originated on earth and that the enzymes in our cells are far too complicated to have arisen by chance (he likened the odds at a nine followed by forty pages of zeros to one)...he claimed that an intelligence must have been behind the complicated objects that are cells and the very complex structures within them. Mr. Hoyle also advised back in 1955 that the earth had finite resources and that once they are used up that no other society following us would have the resources to accomplish what we have. I would say that was pretty good reckoning for 1955. Mr hoyle also believed that in some cases disease was beneficial for it had occasionally turned ordinary students into extrodinary scientists. I am glad that Mr Hoyle chose not to be humble because he has given me much to ponder even if I dont agree with him on all that he said. I feel sure that is what he intended to do, make us think.
My wife and I recently watched an interesting documentary on Link TV. It was titled 'Who Killed The Electic Car.' It was a murder mystery that was solved during the course of the documentary. My first guess prior to seeing the show was 'big oil', turns out I was wrong. The electic cars were on the road for about ten years and they never needed anything. It turned out that the auto manufactures were the culprits for the electric car would have destroyed their business model...dealerships and the repair trade. Worth the watch if you have the opportunity. BTW, they were loved by the folks that had the opportunity to lease one and they had the equivalent impact of reducing gas costs to sixty cents per gallon. The electric car served the needs of 90% of the population when they were introduced in 1996 and acheived 60 miles at highway speed prior to needing a recharge. By 2006 their range of new experimental versions had been increased to 300 miles. Another great feature is that they can be recharged at night when our electrical grids are sitting idle. I would think that the developing world would see the advantage of electric cars and manufacture them on a large scale and if they do maybe we will get a shot at buying one from China? Are you listening, China? I know Detroit isnt!
I think you are right about what we are in store for when the realization dawns on people that their station is out of gas and they dont know when or if more will arrive. If just the 30% that are in a coma and still support Bush go ballistic then we are in for quite a time! Of course we have to discount that percentage because some of those people are so overweight that they will be incapable of causing much havoc. I walk a lot and have been riding motorcycles since a child so I dont use a lot of gas. I also have a good bicycle that has seen use for over 30 years and a couple of overhauls. I think the first few weeks of the chaos will be the worst and reccommend holing up during this period if possible.
As you well know and observed democracy and empire cannot coexist for long. The Rubicon has already been crossed by the numerous misdeads of this admistration. Suspension of habeus corpus is the most vile of all to me, just ahead of torture. Bush is definitely expecting trouble from the population, otherwise I dont believe that he would have placed all states national guard under his command instead of the state governors. I wish it were not so but I think as you do, tsigthtf soon. I dont see the 'unwashed masses' suddenly giving up their humvees and sitting down to computers for a bit of enlightment. Just typing that line gave me a good laugh!