161 comments on DrumBeat: June 2, 2007
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GAIA Host Collective
Meanwhile, back in the "real world," I was listening to the local cornucopian on his car show radio broadcast in the Dallas area, and he was talking about car sales being up over a year ago, gasoline prices down slightly, and how Boone Pickens is just trying to drive the price oil up talking nonsense about Peak Oil.
As I have said before, isn't it ironic that those of us who believe that a finite world has finite limits are considered to be the "cultists," while those who, in effect, believe that we can have an infinite growth rate against a finite resource base are considered "mainstream."
In order to continue to clarify one point about my ELP recomendations, I am not advocating cutting consumption for the general good. The only thing that is going to reduce energy consumption is people's physical inabilty to pay for it. I am advocating reducing your overall consumption--especially your energy consumption--now, because, IMO, energy, and food, will become increasingly expensive in the months and years ahead.
But how do you communicate that Westexas?
In my lab everyone looks at me as a goofball even though they have not won one argument with me on the topic. The more I try the more retarded these people act. FRankly I am starting to get really upset.
Fireangle,
Come here to get upset and have arguments, go there and make the future look like more fun and excitement than jumping into a barrel of cats and monkeys.
If the above makes any sense to you let me know, if it doesn't, let me know.
Your compadre in disaster,
CR
fireangel, you might tell them that oil is going to keep getting more expensive, rather than focusing on running out. The tar and bitumen (Canadian Tar sands and Oil shale) cost a heck of a lot more than light sweet crude to mine and process. Not even the most extreme Cornucopian can argue with that one.
Another good angle is ask them how long we are going to keep sending 60% of our energy dollars to people that hate us? In other word, out-conservative them. Its a national security thing.
Hi Bob,
I know I shouldn't let myself be drawn in to this, but oh well, just call me irresponsible, but I find that part of your statement rather offensive.
First, most people are trying their damnedest not to hate the American people, but the effing elite run thing you have been sold as a democratic government has been dropping bombs on people's heads without stint or reservation and that is a problem. People just don't like having friends and relatives blown to little bits, fact.
Canada has been drawn into this blowing people to bits business lately and I can see how your feeling of being hated arises. Next time I leave my country I will not be taking anything that indicates I am a proud Canadian, no little flags or buttons, no patriotic B.S. I will wave a flag when there is something worth waving it about. Actually maybe I will put a flag on the car, but upside down to indicate distress.
You can go back to before the industrial revolution or the very beginning of it when Jefferson had to send marines to the Pirate Coast to rescue US sailors who had been taken as slaves. And that is not an isolated event either. These cultures clash because they have fundamentally differing belief systems. That doesn't make either culture "right" or "wrong" but they do not get along and have never gotten along very well.
I am the first to admit that the US is in the wrong this time but that doesn't mean that the US or the west was always in the wrong in each prior event. Anyone who believes that is a damned fool.
They may not hate us but they do a really good impression of it.
P.S. Remember that the vast majority of those people of color sold into slavery in the new world were first captured and sold by these same Islamic pirates from Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, and Tripoli.
Ghawar Is Dying
The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function. - Dr. Albert Bartlett
"Remember that the vast majority of those people of color sold into slavery in the new world were first captured and sold by these same Islamic pirates from Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, and Tripoli."
And who was it that eagerly bought and paid for them?
Remember that the vast majority of those people of color sold into slavery in the new world were first captured and sold by these same Islamic pirates from Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, and Tripoli.
That doesn't sound right - and Wikipedia disagrees with you too...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlantic_slave_trade#Slave_Market_Regions
Can you link to something that supports your assertion? I'm not denying that some type of slavery has existed within the Muslim world - in fact some forms of slavery still exist there (and elsewhere). But most of the North American, Caribbean and Latin American slave populations came from the Bight of Benin.
The industrial-scale transport of human chattels across the ocean, to work on plantations producing cash crops for export, was invented by people who called themselves Christians. And it was abolished by their coreligionists.
The industrial scale transportation of slaves predates Christianity. The ancient Romans captured people to work their grainfields in North Africa, and quarries throughout their empire. The Egyptians enslaved people from Africa and used them on their building projects. The Letters of St. Peter were used to justify slavery, but the institution was very well established before Christianity or Islam.
But historical accuracy aside, I was trying to point out that you can sometimes establish a rapport with people by appealing to their mindset, or prejudices. I know, its shitty, but it works. And remember about 1/6th of the worlds exported oil originates in the KSA, and about 1/2 from OPEC. 15 out of 19 hijackers that flew into the World Trade Center came from the KSA. The main funding for the Sunni militias causing 80% of the casulties on American troops comes from the KSA. They are not our friends, and as Arianna Huffington succinctly noted, every dollar you spend putting gas in your tank puts money in the hands of terrorists. So if you care anything about the USA, conserve! If you want to end this pointless and evil war, conserve! If you want to keep money and jobs in the US, buy renewables and conserve!
http://africanhistory.about.com/library/weekly/aa101101a.htm
Wikipedia disagrees with Wikipedia:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arab_slave_trade
And they still do it (even in that liberal do-no-wrong fascist state called Iran):
http://www.uri.edu/artsci/wms/hughes/iran_sex_slave_trade
10 centuries purely for Muslim countries then 4 more centuries for the rest of the world:
http://mondediplo.com/1998/04/02africa
MIT documents the extent of slave trade by western nations in conjunction with Arab slavers.
http://ocw.mit.edu/NR/rdonlyres/History/21H-912The-World-Since-1492Sprin...
Of course you are free to believe whatever you choose to believe. Facts rarely change minds around here.
I am not saying that Muslims were the sole source of slavery but those of you who keep holding up the Islamic nations as some sort of utopian do-gooders need to study your history. The history does not and has never supported that notion. The Islamic states have a history as contorted and ugly as any of the west. And given sufficient time and resources, they will assert their own version of Iraq and its horrors somewhere.
Ghawar Is Dying
The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function. - Dr. Albert Bartlett
A link with detailed description of Slave trading by Sultan's from Afganistan.
http://voi.org/books/mssmi/ch10.htm
An excerpt
"Alauddin Khalji�s Market Control has become famous in medieval Indian history. He fixed the price of every commodity, including slaves. The sale price of slaves was like this. The standard price of a working girl was fixed at from 5 to 12 tankahs, and that of a good looking girl suitable for concubinage from 20 to 30 and even 40 tankahs. The price of a man slave (ghulam) usually did not exceed 100 to 200 tankahs. The prices of handsome boys were fixed from 20 to 30 tankahs; the ill-favoured could be obtained for 7 to 8. The price of a child slave (ghulam bachchgan naukari) was fixed at 70 to 80 tankahs. The slaves were classified according to their looks and working capacity. In the case of bulk purchases by traders who had ready money and who had the means to carry their flock for sale to other cities,19 prices were fixed accordingly."
Another excerpt
"Low Price of Indian Slaves
Ziyauddin Barani reckons regulations regarding sale of �horses, slaves and quadrupeds� under one category. T.P. Hughes quoting the Hidayah says that slaves, male and female, are treated merely as articles of merchandise, and �very similar rules apply both to the sale of animals and bondsmen.�29 A milch buffalo cost 10-12 tankahs., a working girl was cheaper. The price of a good quality horse was 90-120 tankahs, that of a ghulam was 100 on an average. A handsome boy could be had for 20 to 30 tankahs.30 .."
Wooooah there GZ!
I was rebutting your original point about the New World slave trade. As oilmanbob points out, industrial-scale slavery wasn't invented in 18th-Century Benin, nor was it invented in 6th-Century Hejaz - the Prophet's family owned slaves before he became the Prophet. Placing the blame for Dixie on Islam is a breathtaking example of historical revisionism (chutzpah). Nevertheless, I'll concede that the Berber Muslim-syncretist slave traders of the Maghreb were probably quite capable of spotting a profitable market and selling to the white middleman when he was offering a competitive price for their dark-skinned merchandise.
In any case, when the poor wretches got to their final destination, I suspect they found that their new owners went to Church on Sunday rather than Mosque on Friday. Though in that shadowy alternative timeline, maybe we would have been spared the unbearable torture of Whitney Houston's choral vibrato. Win some, lose some.
A word of advice: get a grip on that childish compulsion to Wikibomb any poster who points out that Islam isn't the only source of all the evil that there has ever been or ever will be in the world. Get some historical perspective; Islam (a certain recently-invented aspect of) is merely a convenient label for the Imperium's enemy du jour. Remember who sponsored the Talibs back in the 1980s. And remember who the Talib were fighting against, and what they could have done to the United States in the course of a few hours. And lighten up, for Clapton's sake.
Gotta go and do some of that oil-field stuff now. Isn't that what we were originally discussing? And not a slave in sight. Lots of crop-top blondies on the other side of that chainlink fence down at the airport, though.
Aleikum as'Salam,
PUD.
Um yeah right, your choice of an example to demonstrate the moral superiority of the West, and of the USA in particular, is spot on, eh Greyzone. It's all black and white.
I mean it's not as if Jefferson owned any slaves himself or anything.
You know nor care nothing about the history of slaving. Nothing. This is just an occasion for you to throw some racist venom around.
Ah, I said something bad about oldhippie's "good guys" - the Iranians. Too bad, so sad.
You are the one who is grossly ignorant of history if you believe that ANY major culture was free of the taint of slavery. But go on believing in stuff and nonsense, old hippie. Facts have never stopped you from spouting nonsense before.
Ghawar Is Dying
The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function. - Dr. Albert Bartlett
Sure the Iranians are my special friends and my good guys 'cause I've said a few times here it would be exceptionally dumb for the current US administration to start a war of choice in Iran. That follows. Very logical. You are astute.
You think the clash of cultures is so bloody important, you think that loaded phrase describes anything real, you got such a bee in your bonnet over the Ayrabs, tell you what: There are plenty of wars in progress right now where you could go and kill Arabs to your heart's content. Pick one. Go. Kill.
So now we get from my pointing out Islamic involvement in slave trade to you implying that I am a racist who wants to kill "Ayrabs" (YOUR phrase, not mine). Project much, jackass?
Ghawar Is Dying
The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function. - Dr. Albert Bartlett
CrystalRadio, you misunderstood me. I apparently wasn't clear enough. The arguements are for hopefully changing the minds of people who deny cheap oil, at least enough change to begin to analise the situation.
I certainly agree with you about the current regime, I'm a committed peacenik. I was at eight demonstrations before the invasion of Iraq by the United States, and many more since. I voted against them twice, and think that GWB is the worst president since Franklin Pierce (1856-1860), who was the president who allowed militas to form and battle it out in Kansas, the biggest cause of the American Civil War.
In the US we've allowed the mainstream media to divide us into camps, Liberal/Conservative, Peak Cultist/Cornucopian Evangelical Christian/secular humanist. And its been incredibly divise and is blocking the truth in many areas, because most people don't fit 100% in any camp. But they use certain code words and topics to identify each other.
So what I tried to say is couch your arguements in such a manner as to appeal to others in the group you want to communicate with. Its an old revolutionary communist trick. So if your friend is concerned about national security, talk about how our national security is threatened by the huge level of oil imports; conservation is our patriotic duty. If your friend is a committed christian, talk about the concept of stewardship, a duty to pass on the world in as good a condition as you received it by cutting carbon emmissions. None of this is a lie, its just good salesmanship. Agree with them first, then educate them to agree with you because of what they already believe.
Its not possible to win an arguement, but it is possible to change someones point of view by coming to a concensus.
Hi Bob,
Thanks for coming back and explaining your position so nicely with no offense taken on that touchy subject.
I agree you have to talk to others within their frames of reference. As an instance, I really have had a lot of trouble following a lot of the tech talk on oil as that was right out of my range of experiences and even the day to day, off to the job lunch bucket in hand, stuff is nothing I am familiar with other than through movies.
Let us know how the fishing is there. I am feeling the call of the sea these days myself.
Last year when gas hit 3 bucks I noticed a distinct drop in the level of traffic for a while. Lately the traffic has been the worst I've encountered in five years of my NH/Mass commute.
But hey, record Dow, so everything must be just hunky-dory, right? Right???
The deeper we dig the hole, the longer the drop will be when we fall in...
CrystalRadio said,
"I know I shouldn't let myself be drawn in to this, but oh well, just call me irresponsible, but I find that part of your statement rather offensive."
The United States however, can at least enjoy this one aspect of it's very real jeopardy: Since we (whether the bulk of our people know it or not) a nation now facing a threat to it's very existance, as a nation we are starting not to give a fvck who may find our statements or our actions "offensive" (the truth often is).
Your point is well taken Crystal, we may have brought it on ourselves. We may deserve it. Some have even argued that we could have sold survivors of Auschwitz down the river for oil, and wallowed in the black filth.
Too late for all that. All the Saudi boot lickin' for oil now won't help us. You play the ball where it lies.
The Wahhabi Islamists whose pockets we are shoving hundreds upon hundreds of billions of dollars of oil money too because we refuse to use our own brains and technology would be all the happier to see any American laid out with their guts open to the sun at the first possble opportunity.
The Americans don't want to hear it. They would rather sit around and dream of the great "meltdowns" and "dieoffs" and "catastrophes" based on that glorious day when the oil runs out. Fantasy upon fantasy is built based upon idiotic speculation, while the real threat is watching for the gap, the place we are not looking, the tear in the fence.
If we are ignorant enough to let our guard down, the talons will rip American flesh asunder for sport, the final "victory" of their righteousness. Do you want a preview? Look at the raped and murdered schoolgirls of Beslan.
Oh, yes, we had forgotten them, while we soared to off to new heights of infantile fantacy about "running out of oil" (I thought "peak" wasn't about "running out?"), we had forgotten the real brutality in the world, hadn't we?
And Putin, the fvckin big talker but non doer, like Bush, did nothing to the real slaughterers. The whole gang of useless shitt. They run when the real threat hits. Where is their sacred honor on either side, to protect their own nations?
"to people who hate us?", you ask? You damm right they hate us, they hate humans in general terms, but us more than most.
Make no mistake, let them bastardds get a hold of the U.S., and "Peak Oil" will hold no fear by comparison. And when we buy their oil, waste it away, and make no effort to change, because it's too much work, or because the neo-primitivist propagandists undercut our will to do so, or the anarchist greens threaten every project we propose, we are giving them the sword to finish us off with. How long do you think you Primitive Green tree fairies will survive when they come for you?
You talk "sheepie"? It will more like butchering lambs. And if you wonder how they will treat your daughters, look back at Beslan. If you think your left wing leadership will protect you any better than the cowards we have now, look at Putin.
And should the great Canadian dream of watching the U.S get sliced, diced and dried in the sun ever come true, let's see how long they can hold their own against the murdering sons of the Order of the Raping Killers of Beslan.
OHHH, CANADA....
RC
Hi Out,
Where do you get this juvenile nonsense from? I'd genuinely like to know. Do you actually believe it? If so, you're sadly deluded; if not, you're depraved and corrupt. Which?
Love,
PUD
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Khobar_Towers_bombing
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/11_March_2004_Madrid_attacks
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beslan_school_hostage_crisis
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/7_July_2005_London_bombings
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/September_11,_2001_attacks
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:New_York_Times_9-11.jpg
We said, "We will never forget."
We already have, in less than a decade. Before the children of the dead even grew up. Before the Russian children who saw rape and slaughter could even finish school. Before the estates of the dead passengers in London and Spain are even settled.
We said, "We will never forget". We have forgotten where they even came from. We have forgotten what they told us they would do. We have forgotten that they have told us that "the enemy afar" must be killed. By the way, they named "the enemy afar." That's us, the Americans, and their friends the Jews.
We did not put the words in their mouths, they told us, from the days of "Moslum Brotherhood."
"We will never forget", we said. Now, the ones who have not forgotten will have to protect the ones who have completely forgotten. They do not care who has remembered or forgotten. They have told us. They will gut us for sport, while we pay them to do it.
Roger Conner Jr.
Remember, we are only one cubic mile from freedom
Thanks oilmanbob. Sorry did not reply earlier after asking a qt. I think it is probably a more viable apporach.
Other 'real worldness' -
Will milk become America's new oil?
http://www.oregonlive.com/business/oregonian/index.ssf?/base/business/11...
We cannot have ethanol and milk too, at low prices (duh! Bush).
Adding to price presures beyond cow food...
Seems milk prices are rising and global demand is growing. Austrailia is having a drought and New Zealand is maxed out. So they and Asia are looking to the US for milk.
They quote one shopper who has these choices
1)Cheese
2)Gasoline
3)A new pair of shorts for summer
1 and 2 win over 3 for her. Add this "feedback loop" (times millions of americans and millions of products) into the economy along with the subprime mess, lower housing ATM withdrawls, rising electric, nat gas rates.
But wait BC says cow waste will save us....
I wish I could wear rose colored glasses sometimes too.
Re; NZ and milk production
Yes we are pretty maxed out down here in NZ and the diary farmers are having a ball - Fonterra (the milk export monopoly) just announced extra average payouts to farmers of $120,000NZ, and diary farms are sprouting up where ever they can (placing major burdens on aquifers in places like the Canterbury plains).
But just like the US the products are costing us more - prices just up between 6-14% (and thats here in NZ):
http://www.stuff.co.nz/4080583a3600.html
Extra costs coming through in running the machinery and of course feedstock via the biofuel fed inflation.
So even the producer countries are getting whacked by food inflation. The Central Bank here will continue to raise interest rates (base rate stands at a whopping 7.75%) but I really dont see how these can have much effect when its energy and food inflation that are the principle drivers of general inflation here (at least until they go so high that a genuine recession is induced).
"...I really dont see how these can have much effect when its energy and food inflation that are the principle drivers of general inflation here..."
I agree. I know in the US they can/do/will play monetary games to keep things floating. I'm not sure the outcome(s) other than how WT has laid it out.
If you include in that statement that things purchased for a personal good that would result an overall reduction of fossil fuel use are considered a general good, I agree. For example alternative energy products, energy efficiency items, gardening equipment wheelbarrows shovels etc. (in my case a recent purchase of 24 ft* 100ft roll of. greenhouse poly, solid FF there and that is one thing that if it already hasn't done a big jump where you are it likely soon will, 33% jump here as I walked out of the door). I think any use of FF in these directions would be beneficial personally as well as generally.
I have been building a garden because I enjoy gardens and they give me someplace to go that doesn't involve getting in a car. If one has space and time I suggest a garden as a way of reducing consumption. A hive of bees should also be considered for a garden, very nice to listen to the buzzing of the little blighters of an evening, the buzzing goes well with the curses of any neighbours who fear the little critters.
Don't listen to the talk show hosts, its bad for your blood pressure, Jeffry!
If His Idiocy is right about oil being an addiction, then recovery from the addiction may be like recovery from Alcoholism and Drug Addiction. One of the stages identified in coming to acceptance is anger, and identifing us as cultists is a way of cutting us out to persecute, and identifying us as "pointy-headed intellectuals" as Spiro T. Agnew described us. Don't worry, it will get worse.
As far as cutting consumption, we can afford the technology for things like solar, gardening tools, a fishing pole or an electric bike now. In a peak oil depression, many of us will just plain be too broke.
While we're on the subject of talk radio, it's hard to beat good ol' Rush:
He's not addicted to Oxycontin, either. Everybody keeps 3,000 pills around the house of hillbilly heroin.
One could make a pretty good case that it makes sense to arrange things so that one benefits financially from the mistakes of those who refuse to recognize that we can't have an infinite rate of increase in consumption of a finite energy supply.
If they won't listen to repeated warnings, you might as well profit from their mistakes:
Having done all of this, you might at least be in a position to help out some people in years ahead. Perhaps put them to work on your farm?
Old joke from Eighties Oil Patch Crash: Geologist applies for work at convenience store in Houston. Manager replies that they have no openings for Geologists, but they do have a couple of openings for Petroleum Engineers.
This is one of the most trite strawmen that everyone loves to repeat.
I guess you typed this out on your Blackberry as you drove to work in your car powered by a perpetual motion device.
Actually, I have suggested that we make a transparency of the Saudi crude oil production profile and then invert it. It would then show a production low in 2005, with increasing production since then. So, viewed correctly, we can expect to see an infinite increase in Saudi oil production.
But I gotta go. I promised to fix dinner. We have this magic pantry. No matter how much food we take out of it, it spontaneously regenerates and it is full every morning.
Who exactly said you can have an infinite increase in energy consumption from a finite energy supply? It sure wasn't me.
Hello Dezakin,
I assume you are being sarcastic.
If not: please tell me how I can refill an now empty waterglass without going back to the kitchen faucet. Next, tell me how to refill an empty gastank when petrol gas-stations are extinct. It took approx. 200 million years to create the first fillup.
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Of course not. Many paint the antidoomers as innumerate when its simply that we view the limits as much further in the future before being a cause of concern. The solar flux is on the order of 10^17 watts and we're only using 10^13. We can grow a hundredfold before tapping the radiative capacity of the earth or the solar budget.
Build giant thorium reactors for doing thermochemical hydrogen production, crack CO2 out of limestone with other reactors, run over cobalt catalists for diesel fuel.
Pricy sure, not impossible.
Similarly, build solar concentrators for thermochemical hydrogen production. Or just turn most of it into electricity and adjust infrastructure accordingly.
I rest my case.
Edit:
What if Peter Huber, Michael Lynch, Daniel Yergin, et al, are a lot smarter--and much more ruthless--than we think? What if they are deliberately implementing the following strategy?
I don't understand the joke. Could you please explain me?
Swiss and humor, always a strange match :-P
Let me try.
Convenience stores pay very little and hire people no one else will hire to work the counter, selling cigarettes, gasoline, small medicines (aspirin etc.), packaged food and other sundries at hours when larger stores are closed.
When skilled people loss their jobs and become desperate for ANY job, they will chose such work (or work at McDonalds).
So many very skilled oil people were laid off during the 1980s that many low pay jobs were filled with high skill people. So many that there were no more jobs available, even the lowest paid jobs. So the convenience store can chose who they want to hire to sell cigarettes and gasoline.
So they have hired all of the geologists that they want, much are willing to hire a couple more petroleum engineers.
I hopes this helps :-)
Alan
You left out that petroleum engineers can pump gas ;-)
I thought it was because geologists by thier nature were inclined toward slower movement.
Yeah it helps a lot thx .. ; It is a very black humor for deseperate formerly-well-paid people !!
Maybe we are not the best people for humor, but regarding tennis.... where are the americans in Rolland-Garros, against our national Roger ?
Oh don't worry about our guys... when tennis recovers from its annual insanity about wanting to play on sand, we'll be back :-)
I had to pick an ecologically-sustainable surface for all the world's tennis courts, I'd pick clay. Clay requires rolling, sweeping and watering but requires less fossil fuel to build than either cementitious or bituminous concrete courts. Clay drains fast, doesn't poison the soil and is easy on the feet and legs.
Grass is "greener" than clay, of course, but is horribly expensive to maintain.
Racquets would be wood, of course. :-)
y'know, if cancer cells could talk, they'd sound a lot like Rush.
Mega ditto's Rush! Mega good luck trying to enlarge forever the economy too.
There is the smell of napalm in his second sentence.
Rush is right about all that. Doesn't that suck?
cfm in Gray, ME
We definitely should move to PHEVs and biof-fuels. It is remarkably stupid that we have not established twin $5 billion prizes to the first to commercialize algae farms, and another for zero-gasoline medium-range cars, such as PHEVs. The cost of two such prizes would be 1/10th that of one year of the Iraqi war, let alone the horrible human sacrifices being made.
But shortages ahead? Mild mannered Mr Price Mechanism becomes Superman when it comes to commodities markets. World oil consumption rose just 0.9 percent last year, according to EIA. That is down from 3.1 in 2004, and 1.8 percent in 2005. Yet the world economy did nicely. This year, if that trend continues, should be flat for fossil fuel consumption. I suspect we already have reached Peak Demand for fossil crude at more than $60 a barrel. Going forward, either the price goes down, or demand decreases, permanently. This is great news.
Going forward, Europe and India mave mandated increasing reliance on bio-fuels, going to 20 percent mix for deisel by 2020. The USA is blabbering and doing nothing, nevertheless, new ethanol plants are multiplying like wildfire, and the new plants are slated to return five units of energy for every one used. Check out E3's website. They are really smart guys.
More news: Some guys in Boston are having jatropha planted in Mexico, and will open bio-deisel plant in Mass. Jatropha yields vary widely (I nearly planted 80 acres of this plant in Thailand, but chickened out, as I think oil look very squishy, price-wise).
Somewhere between 1000 litres and 10,000 litres per acre are the expected yields of oil. Now you see why didn't plant it. How do you plan with such wide yield ranges?
But take the half-way point. That is roughly 5000 litres, or 1250 gallons per acre, which is more than double corn yields, with less inputs (usually just water and annual fertilzer). Jatropha is a small tree, so you do not have to grwo the whole tree again every year, as with corn.
China and India are placing huge bets on this plant. It is really a hardy weed. Moreover, it has never been selectively bred for yield.
Corn yields are up 40 percent in last 20 years, per acre. Can jatropha get as far? Probably more, as corn was already long a selectively bred crop 20 years ago. But you never know.
More and more, I think the Fossil Flatheads have it right. Fossil oil consumption from here flatlines, if the price remains propped up by OPEC, and their quislings in the hedge fund world, and whatever mouthpieces they have hired to preach doom. The average marginal cost of fossil crude is still well below $10 a barrel, and the average cost probably still below $20. There is room for a huge plunge in the price.
If the price holds, then happily this will lead to a boom in biofuels, and ultimately PHEVs, the latter which promise to radically reduce fossil consumption. It should be our national energy policy to aggressively puruse these clean alternatives.
Convincing the public will require convincing the public that better energy policies are a pathway to a better future, not one of gloomy sacrifice.
I remain a rabid optimist.
I remain a rabid optimist
I shall remain out of biting range if we should ever meet.
and the new plants are slated to return five units of energy for every one used
The #s are suspect and do NOT include the fertilizer, the pesticides, the fuel used to plant and harvest the corn. Or the fuel to get the workers to their plant.
Corn ethanol will have an overall EROEI of 1.3 to 1 till PROVEN other wise.
But take the half-way point. That is roughly 5000 litres...
I doubt the low end of their range, 1/5th of your chosen #.
Snake oil salesmen abound, and I am sure that your medicine shelf/closet/garage is FULL of cures for all that ails man or beast !
The average marginal cost of fossil crude is still well below $10 a barrel, and the average cost probably still below $20. There is room for a huge plunge in the price
W R O N G !!
And irrelevant as well. Unless we can cut world demand back to 42 million barrels/day, the median price of production is meaningless. Pricing is done on the margin, not the average.
BTW: I figure the average MARGINAL lifting cost (nothing for periodic workovers to keep production up, or adequate pipeline maintenance (see BP Alaska)) is above $20/barrel.
$10 billion would be better spent on high priority Urban Rail and electrifying our frieght railroads.
http://www.trains.com/ctr/objects/images/railroad_electrification_1970s.gif
World oil consumption rose just 0.9 percent last year, according to EIA
BAD NEWS indeed :-((
World oil production (liquid stuff that comes out of a well) hit a high in May 2005 and has never reached that level since.
Flat demand and falling supply make for a VERY bad time; and we are STILL increasing demand :-(((
Falling demand ? Especially in the US ? Only in the next recession/depression !
Best Hopes for Reality,
Alan
See you at $90/barrel and then beyond
Alan-
Check out the E3 website. They use cow dung and corn stalks to fire the plant, no natural gas....they include all inputs in the 5 to 1 calculation....it is a wonderful step forward...inside the plant, they claim 40-to-1 energy in-energy out....expect further betterments in an infant industry...
I like mass transit too, hope we have much more going forward....
jatropha? I still hold out high hopes, despite not planting it myself....if a mature crop like corn can obtain 40 percent higher yields in the last 20 years, then what will happen with jatropha, which has never been selectively bred? Depending on who you talk to, u get 1000 to 10,000 litres per acre...even towards low end, with selective breeding going forward, I see a future there...absorbs CO2 as well...not a bad idea....smart guys are looking at this...
the USA consumed less oil in 2006 than 2005, check out the EIA webiste, the world nearly flat...I would like bigger drops too, but it is going the right direction...the price signal works....
stay optimistic, my friend (my rabidity does not extend to my feral side, at least not yet). I believe in the inventiveness and creativity of my fellow man. We can easily move to radically decreased levels of fossil fuel consumption, worldwide, through PHEVs, biofuels, and I totally agree, much, much more mass transit....
The price signal is our friend, if what you believe is true, and oil prices march up....unfortunately, I expect a price dump, and we should think about heavy gasoline taxes going forward...time will tell which view of future oil supplies is the right one....
keep thinking about a better future, and how to get there....
Benjamin!!
For crying out loud, people have taken apart the E3 crap in front your very eyes multiple times yet you continue to throw it around as if it is real.
You are a real piece of work, sir. A genuine propaganda machine. There is no point in even replying to you any more when multiple answers that have debunked your bogus numbers go ignored by you.
Let me give you some advice, Ben baby! Go INVEST in E3! Go invest YOUR entire life savings! If it is as good as you say, why aren't you fully invested in it? If you're not, then you're a raving lunatic hypocrite.
While I disagree often with Dezakin, he is heavily into the nuclear side and "walks the walk". But you? You're a con man.
Ghawar Is Dying
The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function. - Dr. Albert Bartlett
As far as i know, E3 is not a public company, nor do I have the sort of resources which would allow me a seat at the table, as a private investor. If E3 were to go public, and the IPO price didn't get wacky, I would consider it.....I know of no one who has debunked E3...even RR has written in his website it was the best of the ethanol plants...
But, fellas, as for investing, you guys are missing the boat, by a country mile, if you really, really believe you are right, dead certain and no questions asked (by the way, RR says he is not sure we will hit PO for another 10 years).
You can play options on the NYMEX. You will find many people there ready and willing to take your money, and you can buy call options, or the right to sell for a set price in the future.
Options above $90 are dirt cheap. For little money, I think now about $420, you can buy an option to sell 1000 barrels of crude at $95 in December. Other months and prices vary. In the above example, if oil hits, say $100 a barrel, you would make $5,000, minus expenses. That is a 10-fold increase in your investment, roughly speaking.
Obvously, you need only to be right twice in such a scheme in order to obtain a 100-fold increase in your investment (10x10), before taxes, but since the government is going to collapse soon, that won't matter. Just convert your winnings into gold or guns and ammo ASAP. Or buy a farm with its own water, and a lot of guns too.
Since you are so completely and without doubt certain right, why are you even writing in this "forum"? You should be mortgaging your home, pulling your children out of college, selling you cars for something cheaper, selling your own booty if you have to, and pouring the thousands you have raised into buying call options on the NYMEX.
Then when the rest of scrounge for leftover vegetables outside grocery stores, to cook with the neighbor's dog we just killed, you will have millions of dollars in gold or land, and lots of guns, and you can toss a few peanuts out of the car in my direction. I will be dumpster-diving by then. Maybe you will remember who gave you this sure-fire advice, and help me out.
Sorry, already invested in a selection of oil companies (E &P), North American natural gas, hydroelectric producers in several countries, and railroads in the US & Canada (moving those to Canada).
Best Hopes for Investment success,
Alan
Are you aware that T. Boone Pickens has made multiple billions in the last few years betting on peak oil? Are you aware that Richard Rainwater has also made substantial investments based upon peak oil?
I think I will take two proven performers in the market over your nonsense any day of the week.
Ghawar Is Dying
The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function. - Dr. Albert Bartlett
Feeding the troll GZ. If not a troll then one who has zero ability to read previous posts. Part of our younger generations? All mouth ,,big hat, no cowhsit on boots.
Airdale-now another one will be on my backtrail
Hothgor?
I meant Benjamin Cole, of course. Not you GZ.
Having just finished the excellent and well-reasoned The Upside of Down, it's extremely difficult to read the usual cornucopian crap that infests this site. Luckily, Homer-Dixon includes some suggested reasons why we continue to deny the obvious...you don't want to know the analogy he uses, it's not flattering.
40 to 1. Thank you Jesus! We are saved!
>Check out the E3 website. They use cow dung and corn stalks to fire the plant, no natural gas....they include all inputs in the 5 to 1 calculation....it is a wonderful step forward...inside the plant, they claim 40-to-1 energy in-energy out....expect further betterments in an infant industry...
They Sure do use Natural gas, and Diesel too! Natural gas is converted to fertializer to replace nitrogen and essential minerals that where transported to the furnance. Extra diesel fuel burned to harvest and transport the dung and stalks to the furnance.
>I expect a price dump, and we should think about heavy gasoline taxes going forward...
Great, more money for gov't subsidies and other Gov't pork spending that drives up inflation. That a great way to increase consumption as consumers spend every dollar they make in order to avoid losing money to inflation. Plus gas taxes do zitch for oil consumption overseas (eg China, India, etc). What ever we don't buy, someone else will because demand for oil exceeds supply.
Hi tech,
Some qs (really add up to one q):
re" "Great, more money for gov't subsidies and other Gov't pork spending that drives up inflation. That a great way to increase consumption as consumers spend every dollar they make in order to avoid losing money to inflation. Plus gas taxes do zitch for oil consumption overseas (eg China, India, etc). What ever we don't buy, someone else will because demand for oil exceeds supply."
From this I get (please correct me if I'm mistaken):
1) Higher gasoline taxes would not be a good idea because the tax would only be spent by the gov, thus not making any net gain in conservation - (money/energy just spent elsewhere).
2) Higher gasoline tax would only hurt consumers who are/would be already suffering from inflation, job loss and other problems.
3) If the US cuts back on consumption, it will be offset by increases on the part of other countries.
Do I have it?
Ok, so my question is:
1) Do you have any ideas for a national and/or international energy policy?
2) If so, could you please describe?
3) What if the tax collected was directed only toward things like: wind and solar, moving water energy usage to renewable sources, putting in bike paths, etc. (Any or all of these)...would this make any difference in your assessment?
(and just to say, I'm totally sincere. No sarconal, etc.) Thanks.
"national energy policy?"
You didn't ask me, but I'll butt in anyway. Here's my plan:
1) Have the U.S. post office place an order for thousands of Phoenix battery powered trucks (120 mile range, quick re-charge).
2) Have the IEA or some other policy wonks drive a few of these trucks to the next OPEC meeting in Vienna and park them right out front.
3) Go inside and have a frank conversation with OPEC about the long run.
As someone who actually grows Jatropha in Thailand (local name is Sabu dum) I heartily congratulate you on your decision to back out. And it has nothing at all to do with the price of oil.
Some quick math using real yields gives me about 900 liters per acre. (Actual yield in a 1 meter rainfall per year tropical climate is about 2200 liters per hectare.)
There isn't much variability at all. Anyone who told you 10,000 liters per acre was flat out trying to steal your money.
Actually, gullible seems more appropriate than optimistic.
Growth never pays for itself. - Barlett
Forty years later those opposed to the Vietnam War are still fringe elements. Being right has no value in a dying empire.
A stopped clock is right twice a day. Being opposed to Vietnam did not make the rest of your fantasy nonsense correct then and it doesn't make you correct now.
Ghawar Is Dying
The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function. - Dr. Albert Bartlett
Seems I got you a bit POed. Ordinarily that would have no value but we'll make an exception for this one. Pulling out factually incorrect stories about untermenschen to no purpose other than being a mean-spirited creep makes you special.
Is that more used dope smoke coming out your ignorant ears, old hippie? I (a) did not defend Christian culture involved in slavery, (b) did not deny it in any way, shape or form, (c) made no references to race whatsoever, and (d) simply pointed out that Islam is as dirty as any culture when it comes to slavery.
You don't like this and then call that racism? Your brain is fried worse than I thought.
Ghawar Is Dying
The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function. - Dr. Albert Bartlett
WT, you say The only thing that is going to reduce energy consumption is people's physical inabilty to pay for it.
Ok, that's going to happen. So that will take care of the problem? But if so, then what is the problem?
The problem really is something else. The problem is that our society is structured so that it is not easy or feasible to take your advice. Individual solutions to the problem are not in any way going solve anything more than individual problems. The elite and the surviving sections of the middle class will go on as usual while those that can conserve and survive on less will do so and those and can't will increasingly suffer. I know that this is America and we are individualists and anything that starts with a 'c' is no good, but collective action is needed, and that means politics, and the goal has to be a reality-based gov't with some slight interest in the common good.
It's not the ELP isn't good advice and good policy -- it is. But it needs to be more than just individually implemented.
And that's the real tough nut to crack -- the political and social problem. Put all of the readers of TOD at a conference center for a week, and I have no doubt that we could come up with a good plan that works from a technological and economic perspective. But we are powerless to effect the changes that have to happen in the political and social realm - we're clueless as to how to even try.
The best I am hoping for is that events unfold slowly enough that society can somehow muddle through in spite of our dysfunctional political system and social institutions.
Dave,
The time for politics is over. The time for a grassroots movement is likely over as well.
Then enter the time of the individual and his close knit group.
This in terms of the pioneers who settled this part of the country. The ones who fought the wilderness,subdued the land and fought for the freedoms we have. The Boones and Kentons and others. Individuals and those around them who hacked a life out of the wilderness,bearing their children as they went.
Those peoples descendants are rare yet somewhere deep in this nation are traces of it that still exist, if the welfare systems hasn't robbed them of all their strengths.
Able with a muzzleloading rifle to persevere. The indians wars not withstanding. Many lived with the indians and only fought when necessary. Most fought against the British.
I suggest googling about the battle of Kings Mountain, when a band of backwoodsmen fought the British and Tories on that mountain down in the hillls of North and South Carolina.
The first governor of Kentucky(Shelby) fought and led men in that battle. Ferguson was determined to dress the oak trees with hanged rebels. Instead the trees were dressed with tories and Ferguson was filled with lead as his horse drug him in a circle on Kings Mountain. The men faded back across the mountains and into the woodlands where their families and homestead lay. They faded out of history but played a major role in that history.