I think of it this way: the aggregate demand curve is just the sum of all of the household demand curves in the country. Unfortunately, it's a form of average, in that you can't see the demand curves of the vast lower and middle classes separated from the demand curve for the wealthier classes. I suspect that for the top and bottom of the income spectrum, the demand curves are basically vertical. The poor have very little opportunity to change their consumption and for the wealthy gas is too cheap to think about.

That leaves the middle of the income spectrum that can change their demand. Unfortunately, that portion of the population has been shrinking over time, and I suspect their changes in consumption are simply being drowned out by increasing populations of lower income people and the wealthy who are ignoring the prices. We either need more time for the middle class to make adjustments, or higher prices to force the lower income population to stop driving.

The big reduction I expect to see is in the commercial sector. Eventually the reduction in construction will result in less consumption for business. I don't think most people understand how much of a bubble we've had in real estate. We need far more builders, lenders, and real estate agents to lose their jobs before we clear out this overhang. Of course, that probably means a recession as well, as in the early 70s. The stagflation is so painfully obvious now, it's a wonder the word isn't on the front pages of the papers.

It's true that the poor have very little opportunity to change their consumption in the short run, but they have plenty of ways to change it in the medium term: They can move closer to work, get a job closer to home, start carpooling, start bicycling to work, etc.

For these changes to get made, though, gas prices need to stay high long enough for these changes to make sense. A year might be the relevant period for signing a new lease.

That seems right, in general. But in my neighborhood construction projects continue and some are accelerating their plans. One large, mixed use project that was to be phased is going ahead all at once:

http://www.saulcenters.com/properties-metro/va/clarendon/index.htm

Another, that is currently held up by NIMBY lawsuits will include a lot of affordable housing (60% of median income qualify) within 2 blocks of metro

http://www.1bc.org/dp_template.html

Other developments are also going forwarded and more in the hopper waiting approvals. I hear similar things from other localities that have transit access and established plans for walkability.

It's amazing given the increase in construction costs, but that's what is happening so far in areas like where I live it seems.

More people moving from car dependent areas to places like this would affect the elasticity of demand over the long term.