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Cyclone Gonu Thread 3 (Last Updated 10pm EDT, 6/6)

Posted by Prof. Goose on June 6, 2007 - 3:00am
Topic: Supply/Production
Tags: bandar abbas, cyclone, cyclone gonu, gas prices, india, iran, mina al fahal, muscat, oil, oil prices, oman, pakistan, peak oil, qalhat, sur, united arab emirates [list all tags]

New thread for Cyclone Gonu as of noon EDT, 6/7 can be found here...please put new material in the comment thread there.

Exclusive--Please credit The Oil Drum and Chuck Watson of KAC/UCF. KAC/UCF and Chuck Watson are forecasting, based on their damage models, that the Qalhat (Sur) LNG terminal will be out for 20-30 days and the Mina al Fahal oil terminal will be down for 10-20 days--all of this assuming they are built to US standards. (NB: These damage estimates have decreased a bit since the last model run...and assume US construction standards.)

All tips and resources (*and there are already many down there in earlier threads, let's replicate that here today in the third thread! Thank you!*) welcome in the comment thread below. If you have any insights, please email the editors box with the word GONU in the subject.

Last updated at 10pm EDT, 6/6. This still could be an important event--but we are in a slow news time right now regarding Oman and the area. If you have any insights, please let us know--email us or put them in the comment thread. We're digging on this too...

Here are links to our first Cyclone Gonu Thread (6/4) and our second thread on the same topic (6/5).

Please put all new resources and insights here as of 1am EDT 6/6, but make sure to check out the first two threads as well.

Why might Cyclone Gonu matter? Well, that answer begins with the fact that the world production of petroleum plateauing around 85 mbbl/day, so any slight blip in supply or exporting could be quite noticeable on the world markets--as a sizeable portion of the world's petroleum exports go through the Gulf of Oman.

Particularly, Oman also matters in this because it produces 743,000 bbl/day; Oman is also a net exporter, non-OPEC, whose production peaked earlier in the decade.

Of course, this storm also has the potential to affect petroleum exports from Iran and the UAE for that matter--mainly because of shipping disruptions in the Straits of Hormuz, but there could also be some real effects on infrastructure and assets depending on storm surge, track and landfall. There are also refining and other production assets in Southern Iran that could be affected depending on the strength of Gonu.

Also, click "there's more" below for more graphics, forecasts, and links, and there's much more from our readers in the comment thread as well...

Resources:
The latest from Margie Kieper at Weather Underground:

Gonu evaporated, essentially, today, while traversing the Gulf of Oman. Clouds over the center dissipated, and convection thinned and dispersed outward. It appears that damage was severe along the extreme southeastern coast that I talked about on Jeff's blog Tuesday. Roads to the area have been washed out, and now that winds have subsided, helicopters will be able to access the area. It will be morning shortly in Oman, and likely this will bring the first news of what has happened in these areas. [...] The TRMM product indicated that about 175mm of rain fell in Mascat the last 24 hours.

Earlier in the day from Margie Kieper and Steve Gregory (on Jeff Masters' blog) over at Weather Underground:

This is an unprecedented event. NO CYCLONE has ever entered the Gulf of Oman. And there are no custom 'storm surge' models available for that area. This forecast is based on my experience and subjective analysis of the seabed slope and storm surge interaction with the sea floor. Considering the region has never experienced a hurricane, let alone a strong one it is highly unlikely the loading facilities or platforms were constructed to withstand the forces - both wave action and wind force - that they will experience. Significant, damage will occur. How much long term damage, and the volumes associated with it - can not be determined at this time.

And here's the latest projected track:

As for damage assessments, a tip of the hat to Kinetic Analysis Corporation (affiliated with the University of Central Florida). Early estimates of damage and tracking are available here (Scroll down to Gonu). Here's a graphic:

KAC/UCF has also been kind enough to send us some graphics of the storm surge model with the current forecast:

Here's a link to a map of land-based oil assets on the peninsula.

Regarding GONU...
http://news.google.com/news?hl=en&ned=&q=gonu

Sorted by date...
http://news.google.com/news?hl=en&ned=&q=gonu&ie=UTF-8&scoring=n

http://wwwa.accuweather.com/news-blogs.asp?blog=andrews&date=2007-06-04_...

--I can say with confidence that this forecaster has never seen the likes of this

If you go here, and click
on the North Indian Ocean links, you can get a feel for how rare this is. From 1995 on, no tropical storm of any strength ever reached the Persian Gulf.

http://tsr.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/

http://www.lib.utexas.edu/maps/middle_east_and_asia/iran_strait_of_hormu...

(from Stuart: There's past year storm tracks at The University of Hawaii (click on the North Indian years). Here's the most active past year I could find (1998):

http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/Iran/Background.html

Here's a map of the area:

(here's full size).

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