treeman asks,
"Does anyone doubt that CERA and the rest of the cornucopians have not been effective with their arrogant misrepresentations?"

Opinion here, but to me that is a fascinating question in a way...

The public now seems to be breaking into three major camps:

(a) Those who see the energy issue as it was in the 1970's, a temporary technical/political problem caused by underinvestment and geo political issues, but feel there is still more than enough oil/gas for the foreseeable future (the position that is pretty much put forth by the Department of Energy EIA, and the American Petroleum Council, OPEC, and spread by ExxonMobil advertising)

(b)Those who see the energy issue as much or more in terms of national and economic security as an issue of " peak soon" (which they feel cannot be known or proven), but do feel that conservation and major alternatives should be underway now because [1] of the importance to national security and balance of payments with or without peak soon and [2] Because it is a new technical and market opportunity that we do not want to lag behind other major market competitors in. (I view myself as in this camp)

(c) a much smaller group (as a percent of the total population, but but very present and vocal here on TOD in high concentration) who feel that there is virtually nothing that can be done, (a smaller subset of that group feel that peak is a blessing and nothing should be done) the "modern" world is essentially finished, and the only thing one can do is take an essentially "survivalist" position, divorcing perrsonal effort from the effort of the society at large.

For most average citizens, CERA is as unknown as TOD, and the involved arguements around this issues of "peak" are about as obscure as water polo or curling, a sport for the fanatics and nothing more.

For most people I have talked to, the reports in the media from the EIA, the commercials by ExxonMobil, and industry lobbying council commercials and releases (the API and the NPC) carry much more weight than CERA or TOD, both of whom are viewed as being heavily biased and without access to real "inside" information that the oil and gas industry would have. (Sorry, that's just the way people feel)

One last thing: Most educated people do not believe that the major industry groups would outright "lie" to the public, and assertions of "conspiracies" and "iron triangles" and such make the person making the accusation sound a little bit "wacky". And if the assertion that the banks, car companies, real estate agents the "mainsteam press", and oil companies are aligned in some kind of giant conspiracy....well....that really causes people to shake thier heads...(I once sent a friend here (the guy is in the investment industry, very well read) and he landed on a whole string of that stuff....now he thinks I am bit of a kook....an error that I cannot afford to make again.)

As far as Gail's quiz, I thought it was very well done, about as much as can be done with what we know, and her answer about technology "we don't know yet", I think is exactly the right answer.

Even those of us who hold out a rather positive view of possibilities do not for one second deny that it is going to be a hard tough effort to make major changes in a the near future. But, peak soon or not, it HAS to be done, for the sake of our nation and the world.

Roger Conner Jr.
Remember, we are only one cubic mile from freedom

I'm inclined to agree with you. If there's one thing the right-wing spin machine has taught us, it's that being certain carries more weight than being accurate. :-/

On some level, people must worry that the party can't last forever, but they certainly don't want to talk about it out loud.

I dimly recall a story. At a concentration camp, people were being herded into the gas chambers, and one of them was trying to tell the rest that they were all going to be killed. They all told him to shut up, to stop scaring everyone, "Why do you want to say something like that? You'll scare the women!"

He was received about like the old Moken fisherman who warned of the tsunami. Even his daughter initially thought he was drunk or a liar.

The lesson seems to be that warning everyone is only welcome if there is an obvious problem (Fire!) and a straightforward solution (get out of the building). Warning everyone that recession and deprivation are looming unless we rethink our entire lifestyle just frustrates people who want more of the fossil-assisted lifestyle, not less.

Skip,

I don't consider it arrogant to disbelieve those who TELL you 'this is the way it is' when your life or future is in the balance.

That to me is arrogance. Screw their degrees. Life experiences IMO count for far more. Science has lead us,knowingly or not to this brink or had a very large hand in it. I read them but only as 'opinions' and not factual. Its up to each of us to make our own choices.

I have sat in far far too many classrooms and been subjected to utter bullshit for me to ever take anything as 'factual' and told 'trust me'.

Not a flame,just my take. I also don't listen too much to preachers and distrust most physicians. Greed is the motivator for many in these areas.

Airdale-The truth is out there,its just been twisted and used to sell merchandise or screw you over

With all due respect to the people you mentioned, odds are that their position and education affords them a sheltered lifestyle.
Just like they can read scientific data, others can read the street, and what happens on the street can have a significant effect on the outcome if even just in the short term.

Look at Iraq, the failure is a failure to read the street.

I am all for a variety of presentations of the peak oil story. I think people should be writing their version of the story in a way that will "sell" to the particular group that they belong to - farmers, airline pilots, business executives, homemakers, or whatever.

I have written one version of the story for insurance executives and another version for actuaries. This is a third version, aimed particularly where something provocative is needed for classroom discussion, but also useful for some others. I don't expect everyone will like it - but hopefully it will fill one needed role.

Now that there is a PDF version, perhaps it will get more circulation.