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I agree.
At current rates of consumption, from nuclear + fossil fuel sources, the world consumes the energy equivalent of 173 Gb of oil--14 Prudhoe Bay Fields--about every 2.4 years.
Based on Deffeyes' HL plot, which accurately predicted the decline in world crude oil production relative to 5/05 (EIA crude + condensate), the world will consume 10% of remaining conventional crude oil reserves during George Bush's second term.
By the way, I wonder what will happen to domestic Canadian oil consumption in the years ahead, especially as their natural gas production depletes? Perhaps that might have a slightly negative impact on their net oil exports?
Which is why any investment in the tar sands must be matched to an investment in a uranium mining company. Now that things are heating up again between the US and Russia, what are the prospects that Russia continues to sell us their nuclear warheads for conversion into fuel rods?
My pessimism about how we are going to solve all of these problems is nearly matched by my optimism about my investments.
What if Russia can’t keep the pipeline full?
http://jamestown.org/edm/article.php?article_id=2372212
RUSSIAN OIL PIPELINE SHUTOFF TO LITHUANIA: WIDER RAMIFICATIONS
By Vladimir Socor
Wednesday, June 6, 2007
BTW, Brent is currently within 2% of its post-5/05 monthly high of $74.
When goods and services flow across borders, armies don't. When goods and services don't flow across borders, armies soon will. Glastnost had a lot more to do with the North Sea and Prudhoe Bay coming online and with the jump in Saudi production than with any aging B-movie star's saber rattling.
olepossum, you mean you don't think Reagan was the prince of peace promised in the Bible?
If anyone should be credited with causing the Russian downfall by overproduction, it should be the Saud family. My personal theory, it was MTV. Once the Russians could get half-naked girls wearing nice shoes, Communism was finished. Russian women want nice shoes too!
Why shouldn’t Russia feel beleagured?
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/anatole_kaletsky/art...
Russia’s belligerence is hardly surprising
Anatole Kaletsky 7/7/7
Know your enemy – a phrase coined by Sun Tzu, the Chinese military strategist, 2,000 years ago – is even more critical in diplomacy than it is in warfare. As the leaders of the world’s most powerful nations gathered in Germany last night for the annual G8 summit, the identity of the enemy was pretty clear.
He was not, as might have been expected, George W. Bush. Nobody can be bothered to talk to the White House any longer about Iraq and Iran, while on climate change Washington has successfully created a diversion and thwarted the German and British desire to make this the summit’s central issue. Best of all, an alternative villain has suddenly upstaged the hapless President Bush. Enter Vladimir Putin, the new global enemy No 1.
If the Zionist-Neocons didn't like Iran demanding payment in Euro's they really are going to hate what this one could develop into. :-)
http://en.rian.ru/russia/20070605/66679704.html
It doesn't seem that anyone is concerned about Iran supposedly demanding payment for oil in Euros, except a dimishing set of die hard conspiracy theorists. The claim that Iran and Russian bourses are going to crash the dollar has been a perennial here for the last two years. No amount of debunking can kill it.
Well, we have to wait and see how the cookie crumbles, but it needs to be put in context.
It isn't so much that anyone has any real interest in crashing the dollar.
It's more like with oil denominated in dollars the dollar becomes the reserve currency of the world which allows the US to run deficits and in effect have others pay for them. At some point people get fed up and even a giant can die the death of a thousand cuts.
I have no doubt that the ability of the US to run deficits and have others fund (not pay for) them is coming to an end, probably fairly soon. I do think the dollar is headed down and could possibly face some threat regarding its reserve currency status, although it is hard to see what would replace it.
The point is that it makes almost no difference what currency oil prices are denominated in. Firstly, oil can only be priced in one currency. All other citations are just a translation, or else there are arbitrage opportunities.
However, the price is just a price. Oil can be quoted at $70/barrel and paid for in Euros, Yuan, or pretzels if the two parties agree. I haven't seen any one produce evidence that EU countries pay Russia, Saudi or Iran in dollars.
However, even if they did, it still does make any difference. The value of the dollar is propped up by foriegn countries holding US assets, such as treasury notes. If countries reduce these holdings, which is quite possible, then the dollar will be threatened. If they maintain the holdings, it won't.
Price in this case is really just a measuring unit. Saying that quoting prices in Euros would hurt the US economy is like saying that converting highway measurements from miles to kilometers would threaten the auto industry.
Iran does not want to touch dollars because the US places restrictions on their ability to move capital.
I argued at great length almost two years ago that Iran would never successfully launch and oil bourse. I argued a year ago that Russia would not be able to launch a bourse that serves as anything beyond a local clearing house. So far this seems accurate. The bourses and dollar pricing of oil are non-issues and conspiracy fodder.
So, yes, the dollar could weaken, crash and/or cease to be the world's reserve currency. However, the threat comes from waning demand for US denominated assets, not from how oil is priced or traded.
I don't think the Iranian oil bourse is fully operational, and the Russians have said that is the direction they will move.
Conspiracy theorists, yada yada, I worked in high levels of corporations and sat in on tons of board meetings and had access to lots of data and over hearing conversations of CEO's of fortune 500 company's, you trying to tell me that people don't work in secret and do things to others to try and gain an advantage thru all kinds of means is one of the most ignorant statements people. make.
Learn what the real world is like skippy, and get back to me.
Quid Clarius Astris
Ubi Bene ibi patria
you trying to tell me that people don't work in secret?
No, you're making that up.
We have to agree to disagree then.
Since oil is the primary commodity, if it is denominated in pretzels then people are forced to hoard or acquire pretzels. Doesn't matter whether baked, microwaved or digital. The digital version just allows for a bigger Ponzi scheme.
As long as the currency that is printed does not return to the country of origin it can be printed with impunity. If it does return then there is a cost associated with it. IMO this cost depends on a large degree on the interest rates (ie the higher the rates go the less of a free ride the US has and this is the underlying reason the market is so sensitive to rates).
The consumer is a convenient excuse, the big boys will make a profit either way because they hold the tiller and know in what direction the next steering inputs are going. This isn't a normal productive situation anymore, the US shuffles a lot of paper but produces little, it's a game of what Alice in Wonderland can sell to the uneducated sheeple.
People can see it and are bailing while the US is otherwise engaged because they know they don't have the "juice", the real question will one day be if the Fed has the balls to make the music stop leaving the Chinese standing. Or will the Chinese bail before it happens?
Jack: The US dollar is down 54% against the Cdn dollar since 2002. It hasn't crashed yet, but the trend isn't good.
Ah, but Canada was stupid enough to sign the portion of NAFTA that forces them to maintain current levels of fossil fuel exports to the US. (Mexico refused to sign that part of the agreement) So Canada cannot curtail exports to the US without violating the treaty, even if their own people have to freeze. And we all know how these treaties are set in stone, unless of course it's something we signed, that's different...
Could the Canadians fulfill their treaty obligations by sending the US unprocessed tar sands? Just dig it up and ship it out, leaving the "refining" to the US?
Sure, the treaty was only about letting companies sell their product at market rates. This isn't a bad thing for Canada or the US, unless you really believe Ricardo was dead wrong and trade doesnt work, in spite of centuries of results in favor of trade.
'centuries of results in favor of trade.'
Sure - centuries ago, when there was few developed countries and vast empires to exploit, trade helped the exploiters who made the rules. Free trade is a daft concept in todays world [except for a few capitalist elite].
Trade and free trade are chalk vs cheese
But given all the arguing over the US imposing duty on Canadian softwood export, Canada would be entitled to say the US had behaved in bad faith and they were therefore tearing up the NAFTA treaty.
Once oil becomes scarce is the US really going to risk its continued supply by complaining if Canada reduces exports? OK, they could be that stupid, but somehow I think the US will just have to accept and make do with what they are given.
Its a rule of the post peak world, he who has the oil exports has the control.
Its a rule of the post peak world, he who has the oil exports has the control.
Hm, like Iraq? Not that I'm suggesting the US would invade Canada. I mean Hitler never invaded Austria, did he?
It was only a few years ago that these kinds of discussions would have seemed totally looney-tunes.
Its still loony toons. Canada is filled with a bunch of white christians, Iraq was billed as filled with a bunch of brown people that worshipped a different god and blew up our pretty buildings. The average american knows several Canadians, but no Iraqis.
We might have the US invade Sudan or Angola or possibly Venezuela in some really bizzare world where politics lined up just right. For Canada you would have to have the rhetoric going on longer than US politics has the endurance for aggression.
"...and blew up our pretty buildings."
Only they didn't, but the spin machine got to work and soon most americans believed it anyway. That should worry the canadians.
Hrm, perhaps a book idea is cooking in my head...
---
The Connection: Al Queda, Canada, and Global Jihad
How Canadas Liberal government is conspiring with terrorists to destroy America and kill Jesus
--
I'm not quite sure if people would find it less plausible than the crap Ann Coulter and the like spews.
I'd go for invading Venezuela.:)
Leave fighting the Arabs to Europe, China, and Japan. They are the ones dependent on Arab oil and are getting it on the American taxpayers' tab.
There is a TOD story on the Canadian energy situation here.
The elephant in the room here is the fact tht, despite all the current immigration reform blather, the actual plan is to eliminate the borders and make Mexico/US/Canada one big country. The point of this is to make it easier for the US to have access to (plunder) their natural resources.
In the new North American Union, we will each have our role to play.
Mexico will supply inexpensive labor.
Canada will supply natural resources.
The United States will supply consumers.
Yup. That'll work.
Well ,
somebody has to feed this nation of Yanqui tit-babies.
Rugged Individualism? - My Arse.
Good luck Jose, Good luck Ed.
You have your work cut out, looking after the entightlement parasites between your borders.
Jose (if you are listening - not likely considering the demographics of the above survey) , Take it back .
One baby at a time...
This will hurt (no apology) - Its quite clear that your loyal and true legions have been sent abroad while your NeoCon Slave Masters have filled the USA with Praetorian Mercanary troops.
Oh..and stripped your State Owned National Guardsmen of vehicles and weaponary (what a coincidence....)
Your best hope to avoid a NeoCon / Globalist /Corporatist putsch is your Army. It swore an oath to the constituion.
And to the American People.
PS: For those patriotic Americans who think your special forces are pretty damn good:
Spoke to my old man today at length
Was in UK Special Forces in the early fifties
Became an unarmed combat instructor just before I was born
Was silent for years, but he can now see the end.
Spent a lot of time in SE Asia, and the middle east.
Americans: (post '45 I hasten to add, pre '45 he regards you as Gods)
Rates American Special forces as 'Childish'
'Wouldnt take a crap in a green beret'
'US Marines should be renamed US Morons'
'Worst soldiers in the world at keeping silent - even the Italians were quieter'
'They dont even know how to shit in a bag'
'More interested in getting fags* and coke** than ammo'
'Always whingeing'
'you could smell the toothpaste from a klick away'
*Cigaretes , ** Coca Cola - Wouldnt want your mothers to think that you were homo druggies.
Who knows?
An old mans rambling?
Or a pretty accurate assessment of US Gov forces personnel?
Anyway, We are a people divided by a common langauge.
Discuss.
How is the Iraqi 'surge' going by the way?
Mudlogger,
Wonder what he thinks of Delta and Seals?
A fairly accurate assesment but I do respect the Seals. They make 'Airborne' look like sissies at a weenie roast. Ditto the Rangers and Recon.
Special Forces..had a role other than combat. Were supposed to be there to train the civilians into a fighting force or so
"Warrior Soul" by Pfarrar states.A good book BTW.
I rate it thusly:
Seals(Navy)
Delta(Army)
Marine Recon put rest of Marines somewhere below
Regular Navy (swabbies)
Army (grunts) Airborne a bit higher
National Guard and Reservists
Air Force(known as Air Farce or Pigeons)
Coast Guard(the pits)
Special Forces(Green Berets? hate to guess..they get the glory due to John Wayne)
The Coast Guard covered themselves in Honor and Glory during Katrina. Above and Beyond performance ! Professionalism to the outer limits of the envelope.
The US Army failed in their Duty, dishonored themselves with their cover-ups and failures to do their simple duty, and did more damage to their Country than al Queda could have.
The rest were slightly better than useless.
Oh, and the British Columbian Search and Rescue were the first ones into Plaquemines Parish (as hard hit as Orleans) after DRIVING cross-country from Vancouver BC.
It is not how well you drill on the parade ground.
Best Hopes for the Coast Guard never having to buy a beer in New Orleans,
Alan
I was invited to a party put on by some Hollywood types shortly after Katrina (not sure why). Talked with two Coast Guard swimmers at the party. They still had cuts on their arms and faces with stitches. One had a limp. They told of their competition between crews as to how many loads of people they could get out. One had 128 loads, the other 138, #2 in the Coast Guard. The Coast Guard waived safety regs and flew 16 on, 8 off for 8 straight days. Base Commanders simply dispatched rescue helos to New Orleans from all over the country without checking with DC HQ.
Other services stayed with the max 8 hours/day until near the end.
My reference was but to the military aspects of combat.
They are not tasked with such as you describe above except maybe for the National Guard.
Clearly there were many who failed miserably but the rest of the service should not have their feet held to the fire since they must be commanded and given orders.
The Coast Guard excels at rescue. Around here they mostly do buoy tending. They don't do much when we had floods like in 93. Its local fire and rescue and volunteers who do that. I remember many church groups sandbagging the Ohio back some years ago when it got real bad and some National Guard as well.
Currently the role of National Guard has changed due to be federally activated and now seeing life combat. My buddy's son has had many deployments with his Patriot Missile battery in many areas of the ME. He is there now for 18 more months.
As 911 was a pivotal event so I payed very close attention to Katrina since it was also so pivotal. There should be much outrage as the stupidity of many in control during that time.
Regards,
Airdale
The military is a reflection of the population in general. Everywhere.
A few very competent professionals and then a little of everything. Problem with a volunteer military you tend to get the leftovers.
It's no wonder that the truly competent drift towards the Blackwater's of this world. A true elite and less paperwork.
Your SAS/SBS are good, but I still put my money on a SEAL team. The other 99%? C'est la Vie.
If you add it all up, the asphalt on all the nation's highways and parking lots represents an impressive amount of "reserves" as well. Great EROEI, that.
;-)
Best idea I have seen all day. A twofer: demand destruction -and- supply.
| The problem will solve itself.
| But not in a nice way.