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81 comments on Cyclone Gonu Thread 4

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AlanfromBigEasy on June 7, 2007 - 5:40pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I looked at the position of the J Bennett Johnson on June 5 13Z and retract the post below (still interesting so I left it). I thought that she was inside the PG on June 5th waiting.

On June 5 13Z she was 100 nm to the NE of Muscat in the Gulf of Oman and trying to ride out the storm. In 43 hours she traveled just 186 nautical miles (straight line).

She apparently transited the Straits of Hormuz on June 4th (or earlier) and then held position rather than retreat back through the straits (with some strong currents).

If one looks at the surge maps uniquely posted here, one will see the surge entered the PG. This means LOTS of water and strange currents. Thus retreat MAY have been cut off.

That water is now flowing back out of the PG and this may limit transits for a short time.

There would have been a short window with minimal currents in the Straits when the water had peaked into the PG but not yet started to ebb out. Some ships may have left then.

.................

The distance from the reported position of the J Bennett Johnson to Bandar Abbas is 597 nautical miles.

At June 7 8Z she was 441 nautical miles from Gonu (location June 7 0Z per USN)

Assuming 20 knots (close to max for a fully laden VLCC I think) that is 29 hours since being at the apex of the Straits of Hormuz with a transit of Gonu perhaps 18 hours earlier.

This means an unplugging of the PG no later than Jun 6 14Z (with some fuzziness as to the exact hour).

However, she was in the same position heading in (167 nm delta) on May 24th. About 11 to 12 days in the Persian Gulf.

She spent less time in the PG last time that there is good data, but so many variables that comparison is unwarranted.

I think that we have a decent number for the unplugging of the Persian Gulf by Gonu. Now a date and time for "plugging" of the PG by Gonu ?

As I said before, a longer route along the northern edge of the Arabian Sea (Coasts of Iran, Pakistan and India) should have been open on June 3rd, and perhaps the 4th if ships did not fear a sudden northern turn by Gonu.

http://hurricane.methaz.org/tracking/ops/IO022007/tracks.png

Alan

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memmel on June 7, 2007 - 6:17pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Got it :)
Ok sorry your first comment implied to me at least she was already committed. So now we are probably left with only a disturbance plus the direct effects of the storm. So I doubt that OPEC will take any extra measures to make up of the effects of this storm. But on the same hand Its not clear the effects will be strong enough to force KSA to make its position clearer since I'd not be surprised to see some other opec members take advantage of the higher prices.

Bummer I agree with you. So we must continue to wait. We can however watch oil prices and see if the disturbance is enough to raise the floor price. Say Brent above 70 into the fall.
So the question is can the oil market recover from even this fairly minor disturbance ?

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81 comments on Cyclone Gonu Thread 4

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