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236 comments on Lies, damned lies and BP statistics
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236 comments on Lies, damned lies and BP statistics
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Luis - 120Gb production to date is based on API Facts and Figures Centennial edition 1959 for 1936 to 1964 and then BP data from 1965 to present. BP is C+C+NGL. How the Centennial edition dated 1959 reports data till 1964 - I don't know.
Are you saying that Campbell estimates 160Gb and Bakhtiari 130Gb remaining reserves in Saudi? If so then Campbell has 61% of the Saudi official estimate and Bakhtiari 49% - and so in those terms they are both substantially lower than the Saudi official estimate.
If we assume the 1980 figure was prepared in good faith, then an upwards allowance does have to be made for new discoveries and new technology - which would nudge the 91 billion remaining upwards towards Bakhtiari.
If memory serves me, Simmons said in Twilight that the Saudis revised their reserves up twice. They were estimated at 110 billion barrels in 1978 and were revised up to 170 in 1980. That, presumably, would take care of the revisions made for legitimate reasons.