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124 comments on And now, the latest on peak oil from...Business Week?!
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124 comments on And now, the latest on peak oil from...Business Week?!
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There are 2 types of "peakers":
Type #1: those who have a personal political advancement strategy
Type #2: those that are personally prepping
If you're happy about this and the the Indy article, you're primarily a Type #1.
If you're ambivalent or unhappy about these articles, you're primarily a Type #2.
To anybody truly prepping: YOU DON'T WANT THE POPULATION OR THE MARKETS TO RECOGNIZE THIS! We can all kiss our asses and any hopes of better positioning ourselves goodbye once either/both of those things happen.
There will be no "Cuba" style Powerdowns. Cheney or whoever comes next will blast us all back to the stone age before that happens:
http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/Archives2007/WhitneyPutin.html
Forget your neighborhood being the next Havana, it's going to be Baghdad or New Orleans in short order once the markets "get" this.
So you want to get to a place with lots of water, isolated from invading populations, and away from nuclear targets and fallout patterns as soon as reasonably possible.
These high profile articles are not a "good sign". They're symptoms that things are getting ever closer to completely unraveling. It's like when people on the beach finally spot a Tsunami on the horizon and say "wow, a Tsunami is on the way, maybe we should start running." At that point it's probably too late to start running unless you can haul ass like FloJo.
Hi Chimp:
More one for Matt Savinar I think, not directly related to PO, but you have to laugh (and it is a Friday):
Wheels coming off Globalisation?
Or: When poverty knocks ont’ door, love flies out the window…
Wal-Mart branded anti-US in China row
By Mark Kleinman in Hong Kong
Last Updated: 3:15am BST 15/06/2007
Wal-Mart was plunged into the heart of the row over the US's massive trade deficit with China yesterday as it faced accusations that an influx of cheap Chinese imports had rendered the retailer "un-American".
Wal-Mart said it still sourced from within the US as much as was commercially viable
The allegations from a US pressure group funded by one of the country's biggest trade unions strike at the heart of the debate over globalisation and come as US politicians step up pressure for a draconian series of trade sanctions against the Chinese government.
A television advertising campaign by WakeUpWalMart.com, an organisation funded by the United Food Commercial Workers' Union, cites a memo from Sam Walton, founder of the world's biggest retailer, in which he pledged to keep Wal-Mart American.
"No company has done more than Wal-Mart to strengthen China and weaken America," said Paul Blank, director of WakeUpWalMart.com. "The time has come for every American to demand that Wal-Mart stop making China stronger at the expense of American jobs and America's economy."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/06/15/cnwalm...
I believe these kinds of predictions are unnecessarily alarmist. During the Great Depression, we were able to turn away from individualism and toward cooperation. No doubt peak oil will be difficult (especially economically) but I believe we'll adapt better than some here expect. For example, there's an interesting article about the difference between men and women: in times of stress men fight and flight, where as women tend and befriend. Perhaps in a peak oil situation women will step up to the plate to lead the charge on tending and befriending. The world will increasingly need this.
Smokey,
As usual, it takes 5 seconds before somebody posts a deeply flawed reference to the GD.
The bad news is that during the Great Depression, which was global, Hitler took over Europe and killed tens of millions people.
The good news is Roosevelt took over here, went to war with Japan and Genermany, and then his successor initiated a regional nuclear holocaust in Asia.
Back then we had 2 nuclear bombs. Today we have 20,000. And unlike back then, the energy wealth pie is now decreasing.
There is now a name for people moving to the valley where I live. They're actually being called "peak-oil refugees."
At least that's what the real estate people call them.
So an exodus appears to be starting ...
Green/Refugees:
Down a bit south of Raleigh, NC..just past the city limits there are new plats that are going to be developed and the houses will be termed "GREEN".
They will be VERY expensive. This is the new mantra and scheme for the developers I suppose..ones who are very likely reading TOD and plotting a new way to make money off PO and CC.
Expensive is like maybe close to a million whereas current prices in the neighborhood are ranging from $250,000 to $500,00.
This is where my son just brought and where I have visited several times. The land in question was previously NOT going to be developed and it lent a huge amount of privacy in a very nice, not too overly developed area but now the money hounds are at it tooth and nail.
I bet it will be gated as well. There goes the neighborhood.
Airdale
PS. Might be interesting to google ,development and green.
Bet this will go over big time and I note that there is NO housing bubble bursting in this area of NC. There was in 85 when I moved away and had to let the relocation firm take over my North Raleigh(Wake County) residence. There are some areas of this location that are in a declining market but only slightly so based on demographics(meaning poor white trash or ethnically undesirable to put it nicely).
Chimp, your arguments are meaningless. Because conditions are different today than they were in 1930, total collapse is the only possible outcome? Neither you, nor I, nor anyone else can predict how this will all shake out.
The seeds of positive change may have already been planted... from Empire to Earth Community, as the book says. With the three big threats of peak oil, climate change, and economic meltdown we may be able to find a better way, we can do so much better. Not that there won't be hardship and strife along the way.
I find the obsession with insisting that there is "no option but total collapse" a bit ridiculous. There are many possible outcomes.
Yes things are different, they potentially are much worse. Declining energy supplies on the horizon. Religious fundamentalists - Moslem and Christian. An empire that is overstretched with a declining manufacturing and energy base Other countries waiting in the wings to become empires. The whole history of humans is written in blood and conflict and I see no reason presently this will change. We at the Oildrum may be educated (reference to the poll) and civilized, but given a large portion of the world’s populace that believes in a man up in the sky that watches over us I don’t put much faith in them ever being reached by reasonable arguments. Yes there are a number of potential outcomes, but I’ll put my money what I feel is the most likely one given human history. A very short history at that, only a few thousand years of civilization. Not a long track record to go on. I can’t prove it, it’s a hunch, a word that is held with contempt on this site, but I literally bet the farm on it.
I agree... the only difference is that things are much worse.
We are more extended on paper meaningless dollars. In 1929 at least the dollars were tied to gold.
And population numbers? Ha.
And what about ability to work the land? Double - ha.
And how about social fabric? Can we say "tinder box"? Ready to explode, all of it.
It feels better to think "nobody knows" but we all know that this will end up far, far, far worse than any 1929 or any black plague or any dark age. We are way over the line here.
Oh God you drank the Korten Kool-Aid. This is a guy who - I kid you not - described the Baby Boomers as the generation of "wise elders."
Seeds of positive change? LMAO! Dude, we're spending $1.2 trillion (on the books) and lord knows how much off the books in military spending. Another 1.8 trillion or so on oil. Who knows how much on advertising. I could go on. . . In contrast there are at best a few billion being spent on anything positive. Trillions for catastrophe, billions for positive change and the gap is only worsening with each passing year. Where does this lead us?
Conditions are far worse than in 1930. The energy pie was getting bigger back then. It is now shrinking. And it is shrinking in the context of a world spending at least $1.2 trillion a year developing and deploying highly advanced killing technologies.
History and the bible can be twisted to support any belief system. Never mind that through the depression and up until Pearl Harbor was bombed the peace movement was one of the most powerful political movements in the country. Have you ever talked to those who survived due to the CCC or WPA? I've heard lots of their stories, they are proud of the country, what they did and how they survived, and never went for anarchy. My parents, inlaws and all their friends lived through the great depression and wouldn't recognize what you are talking about. The suffering, yes, but the attitudes and outlooks, no.
During the depression the 4th world wasn't living 3 feet off your door step.
Indeed, Matt. The last thing I want is the sheeple waking up before I own a petrocollapse ready farmlet. Or for that matter bidding up the price of silver before I have finished gathering my hoard.
Yep, I don't need to explain to you how it is.
Case in point: prices are dropping on some farmlet-potential spots I looked at last week. If people understood what is going on, that trend would reverse and whatever little hope I have of getting one of my own would be dashed.
Hi Chimp--
I have to respectfully disagree. I am definitely a 'Type 2" personal preparer, but I welcome anything that will motivate others to learn about peak and prepare. We won't get through this by by being survivalists; we will need community, however small and local. So to the extent the message delivery can be expanded and get more people in each community thinking correctly, the better off even we Type 2's will be. Articles like this help.
Vtfarmer,
I agree with you 100%.
Matt has committed the fallacy of the false dilemma, as well as the fallacy of questionable premises:
1. One can have a political agenda as well as making personal preparations.
2. Even more important, the future is not a zero-sum game; it is not like poker, where you want to guard information, because information is power. Savinar's premise is that the more people who are "in the know" the harder it will be for individuals to make preparations is flat out false if you see (as you do) the fundamental question of survival as how to create viable communities.
Heck, from the dense Cornucopians on this web site, you can see that the entire MSM could be shouting end of the world, and the sheep would look up and say "oh, my, but that, of course, is not possible.", then go back to grazing. You might get a made for TV movie. But then they will go back to being more interested in Paris Hilton.
Don, any community that has a chance to survive in a post peak situation will probably not have it’s chances increased with a knowledge of peak oil. In fact, a strong argument could be made that articles in the media will decrease their chances as people flock to these places in an effort to survive. I’ve seen lots of nice small towns in Northern Illinois destroyed by yuppie types flocking to them to experience the small town lifestyle and in the process destroy these places. These same people will be the ones swamping small rural communities looking for a place to survive, bringing nothing other than their bank accounts and wasteful lifestyles - which in a crash will be meaningless compared to survival skills. If you live in very large urban areas such as Chicago, New York, Los Angeles, etc., kiss your ass goodbye because no amount of preparation and knowledge is going to make these places survivable. The logistics are too insurmountable. There is just too much antiquated infrastructure and structure to replace.
Clearly, to build a community likely to survive Peak Oil we need at least some people (those in the community) to be aware of peak oil. I do not see how awareness by many affects the chances of survival of those who take extensive preparations to build community. For example. suppose in the late sixties there was even more awareness of the danger of urban riots than was actually the case. Would this increased awareness have hurt the chances of ANYBODY to survive urban riots. I doubt it. Rather, I think increased awareness allows and encourages increased preparation on many levels.
Three cheers for spreading the word!
No you don't. I just visisted a families off-grid farm. They're totally off the grid, have lots of animals, etc. They did it even though they had never heard of PO.
The Mormons are probably the only community even remotely prepped. And PO awareness in their community is as low if not lower than it is anywhere else.
The rest of your post is deeply flawed in its thinking. The last global oil war ended with most of the civilized world in ruins, one continent having experienced a nuclear holocaust. If you examine the arc of current events, the current global oil war is heading in a similar direction. We're not talking about something as relatively benign as urban riots here.
We'll see urban riots long before we see revolution or collapse. Check any history book.
The future will be like the past, but with variations.
BTW, how long did it take the Roman Empire to collapse?
And when did the big Roman riots take place?
It took Rome 400 years to collapse. But as we are way more leveraged then they ever were I suspect it will take us about 50-to-100.
That's the good news. The bad news is the American Empire collapse began in 1971 when our oil production peaked. So were 1/3-to-2/3 of the way into it, the part when things start to get real nasty.
Matt,
My own prophecy for when THSHTF is the year 2020.
What is yours?
If anybody is interested, I'll explain how I came up with 2020, which is only thirteen years from now.
Personally, I began preparing in 1956, with a Global C-2 pilot's survival kit, a Mossberg .22 rifle, and a Zundapp motorcycle. But for the last decades I've focused mainly on my extended family and other sources of community.
Don,
The shit is hitting the fan one city/region/economy sector at a time. I think it will continue to do this. The thing is we are a self-selected group here. If you have the free time and energy to post here you are, by default, not in an area where TSHTF. (Some rare exceptions, of course.)
Examples:
Compare Baghdad, Detroit, and New Orleans as they were in 1957 at the height of the industrial age to as they are in 2007 as the industrial age is just in the intial throws of collapse.
Los Angeles, Mexico City, Tehran seem to be good candidates for where TSHTF next.
I agree with you 100% about the importance of location.
The cities will burn when the looters shoot the fire fighters.
Martial law will help for a while.
My guestimate of 2020 is about nationwide realization that THSHTF. For example, Dow Jones Industrial average below 1,000, interest rates above 30%, reneging on Medicare and Social Security through prolonged double digit inflation, housing starts below 100,000, more people killed in riots than by auto accidents (a milestone to look for), rampant black markets, increasing gang or warlord rule in urban areas, enslavement of illegal alients to mine shale with pick and shovel, etc., etc. But none of this is Collapse.
I think TEOTWAWKI will come gradually and somewhat later than the year 2020, if it comes at all.
There is a small but finite possibility that new technology can pull our chestnuts out of the fire for a few more decades, especially if we forget about global warming and burn that coal as fast as we can mine and transport it.
The possibility that our political leaders at the national level will do anything constructive to deal with Peak Oil and greenhouse gases is slim to none--unless, say there is a military coup and one of my daughters takes over as emperor.
How is your polygamous cult coming along? Have you found the Holy Books yet?
I'm kinda partial to December 21, 2012 since that is when the Mayan calendar ends.
I concur - precession to Galatic Center 2012.
From the NewScientist:
"Mammalian species are known to last an average of 2.5 million years before being snuffed out, but nobody had been able to figure out why. The reason, it turns out, may be linked to regular wobbles in Earth's orbit.
Jan van Dam from Utrecht University in the Netherlands and colleagues reached this conclusion after studying the fossil record of rodents from central Spain over a 22-million-year span. This showed a link between rodent extinction events and the climate record."
BTW: despite what is prophesized to transpire 12/12/12, the Mayan calendar doesn't really end per se for time and life were considered to be forever cyclical.
Shall we start a betting pool?
I think 2012 is too early for TSTHTF, because by then we will still probably be able to import maybe 80% or 90% of the oil we do now. A drop of ten or twenty percent in oil imports (together with slow decline from domestic fields) is not, IMHO, enough to put the fecal matter into the turbines.
True, but an attack on Iran or Siberia to try to get control of energy supplies might get us to TSTHTF pretty damn fast.
I worry about our leaders ...
A drop of 10% in our oil imports almost certainly means there will be some empty shelves at your local supermarket. Almost certainly there would be lines at gas stations. Almost certainly the segments of our economy that are sensitive to transportation costs and fuel availability and don't receive public subsidies would be affected. That's trucking, for one. When log trucks don't roll, mills shut down. When steel trucks don't roll, factories shut down, and major construction schedules are thrown off. That would be known as unemployment, something this country hasn't had a serious dose of since the '30's. Combine the demoralizing effects of empty shelves and parking lots with boarded storefronts and unemployment, and I think you would have to concede that, indeed, TSHHTF. I don't think we could absorb a 10% fall in imports without it triggering those effects, I assume you think we're not that vulnerable. I would propose that an economic contraction of that magnitude on a population as 'unprepared' as we are will profoundly unsettling and the clinical term 'depression' will be applicable not only at the macro level, but at the individual level as well, and most people will manifest not sociopathic symptoms but symptoms of depression- lassitude, disattachment, denial, avoidance. History is full of examples of famines that were not attended by violent uprising and civil disorder. I guess my vision of the future is even darker than yours, in a way, I just think that most Americans are so weak and stupid that they won't even lift a finger to try to save themselves until the last twinkie is gone. So you guys are safe in your rural redoubts, all the potential hoodlums will be holed up trying to sell their looted bling on ebay.
My calendar appears to end on December 31. 2007?
I don't think you and Don are as far apart as you think, Matt. LA could down the tubes next year but much of the country might still hold together while the feds try to restore order (or watch the city simply eventually burn).
My preparations are aimed at roughly similar levels to you and Don. In some ways I'm pretty far along and in others not nearly as far as I want but I think I am a bit more optimistic than either of you.
I still believe that the technical problems around peak oil can be solved by a combination of factors such as Alan Drake's light rail, an expansion of nuclear power, and rearranging our way of life so that we can retain a viable technological civilization. M. King Hubbert thought so too but he also warned that if we do not get off the "folklore" monetary system which directly conflicts with real science then there is no hope at all.
My pessimism comes from the realization that this is not a technological problem as much as it is a religious problem. Economics and the myth of infinite growth are the religion of modern civilization. To face that myth and replace it with something, anything, grounded in real science is something that we will almost certainly refuse to do.
Ghawar Is Dying
The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function. - Dr. Albert Bartlett
I suspect that the coming collapse will have little in common with the collapse of the Roman Empire. No previous civilization has become become so utterly dependent on fossil energy. The nearest parallel might be some the the early Mesopotomian empires which destroyed themselves by destroying their supporting ecology.
BTW. The collapse of the Western Empire really started in 378 after the battle of Adrionoble in 378 AD and ended when the last Roman Emperor of the West (Romulus Augustus) was casually deposed in 476. The title of Emperor was so insignificant by then that we wasn't even killed.
The Eastern Empire survived for another 1000 years.
Bruce: Where is the evidence re a city like NYC? The place was a lot weaker when oil was cheaper (say 1971) than it is in 2007. It has really boomed while world oil supply growth has stagnated. A high % of the population does not own a car and could care less about gasoline prices.
"Couldn't care less", not "could care less".
And I'm sure they eat in NYC, in which case, they'll be wondering why food is shooting up at an alarming rate. Not as pricey as it was decades ago, but certainly able to get there if ethanol and greater population numbers are anything to go by.
Additionally, I recall oil affects more than just how much you pay for driving.
My local view on the post peak oil era is one of hasty but gradual change with an increase in urbanization, electrified transportation with both cars and mass transportation, more electrified industry and sustainable biological and nuclear technology.
I see Sweden as my local community but also our neighbours are well and often better run. Finland has better energy policy and schools, Norway oil and gas and doing well with investing that wealth and Denmark has recently repayed all foreign debt. Also EU has some good trends but we do for instance need better AC technology for southern europe if global warming accelerates.
I see peak oil awareness as a good thing and with that I mean an awareness that energy and especially wehicle fuel will be increasingly expensive. Its not the end of the world, its only change. And if people are aware of the change they can make apropriate investments. Here I have the selfish goal of making sure that Sweden becommes a realy good community to invest in.
We gotta get rid of red tape, calm down NIMBY and encourage facility builders to be realy nice neighbours, prepair for more non CO2 energy production, get the economy rolling to make it possible for people to invest, encourage long term thinking, get old conflicting interests to agree on new goals, make our towns nicer, and so on.
I actually think I will be living in a nicer country in 10-20 years. I can see some of the processes above picking up speed and actually personally encourage some of them, quite a wierd feeling, its probably addictive. ;-)
Yesterday I watched Fredrik Reinfeldt our prime minister and leader of our largest party in the government coalition have a press conference for our new party internal work for making a realy good enviromental policy. The ground work document is mostly based on Global Warming but it will be a complete policy and it will be very intresting to see what new ideas are found during the three year process of gathering ideas, wetting them againd all kinds of special interests and making a bid for voters approval in the 2010 election.
http://www.moderat.se/material/pdffiler/moderat_17127.pdf
I agree as well. This is the problem I have with some "hardcore peak oil doomers," In their view, there is no other option or possibility other than the total collapse of society. This is why I actually appreciate theoildrum, as it's more balanced than some other peak oil sites.
That's why I used the qualifier "primarily." I figured people would understand that meant you could be a mix of the two.
And the future is a zero-sum game. The pie is now shrinking.
You're the one making a logical fallacy. Whatever preps your COMMUNITY wants to make are going to be impossible or at the very least extremely difficult to make once the markets "get" this.
If the pie is shrinking, then the future is a negative sum game.
Everyone gravitates towards thinking in the terms one is comfortable with by profession/training/environment.
IMO those that do not consider Matt's scenario as a real possibility are engaging in wishful thinking to some degree.
Many people with very valuable skills lack the training to comprehend what it would take to defend even some small positions if things get out of control.
As far as the MSM, over the last few weeks the news blackout is taking on monumental proportions from what one reads even in the highest level non US media.
On the ideals of 'community' and possible outcomes:
After the shitstorm has started and in full bloom a few things will become extremely important.
First will be power. Individual power. The power to call the shot,rule, be the head man.etc.. This means lots of playoffs between wannabes and the strong. This is of course just natural selection of the alpha male.
Second will be food. Be prepared to have it taken by force if you can't protect it.
Third is breedable and cuddly females. You have one and someone else wants her,then force comes into play.
Remember NO law enforcement. Its all about brute power and the suprise factor.
So you are ok..you got a dwelling , food and a good mate. A member of your community wants some of what you have. You get an axe in the head in the middle of the night or when your back is turned.
Can you tell me this? Just who can you trust? Today I find zero , yes zero, trustworthy people. I live in the country amid friends and kin yet I wouldn't turn my back easily on most of them.
So how do you trust a total stranger,or someone who just walks in with a big smile and says "trust me,I want to help"?
I really don't see for most folks how it can work out otherwise. Today there is ripoffs everywhere and people feed on your blood. When TSHTF suddenly we will all become trusting souls happy for each other with shiny, happy faces and willing to share?
I don't think so.
Scene: Your sitting on your porch. You see a ragtag band approaching up your lane. One is carrying a long sticklike object. In a few minutes he will be in rifle range. Do you sit there? Start to boil some tea? Let them surround you whilst minding the tea? Welcome them up and let them case you out? Sic the dogs on them? Tell your daughters to go hide? What?
Just what the hell do you do? You have to think these things out. Else you end up possibly in the ditch out back with a cut throat.
You haven't read 'The Road' then have you?
You have no real plans do you? The 'message'? There is no 'message'. There is power. There is strength. There is survival. There is planning and thinking ahead. There is survival of the fittest.
The weak won't even get started.
Hope I am wrong but I won't bet my life on it.
I'm betting your answer will be thusly: "Well if its that bad then I will not want to live that kind of life."..defeatist then,ok your choice.
Airdale
Funny that the hard questions like this one that I sometimes ask,never do get an answering reply. Is this the communal spirit at work then?
Or is it that many rather not go there?
I suppose its not politically correct to pose such.
Its just that I have a huge disconnect with this 'new found' community spirit thing. Last time I saw it and fleetingly at that was in Woodstock, NY right after the hootenanny/festival up towards Bearsville. That was where I was living and before that I lived in Venice, Ca...right at the same time as Manson did his fork thing at Tate/LaBianca and Squeaky and the girls were still hanging out at the Spawn Ranch and doing tv chats about what 'their community' was all about ,what with dead bodies they buried in the sand and so forth. Also some girls wanted to make Venice beach optional clothing so I would go watch them strip nekid in front of the TV cameras. That was real community spirit. However up 101 was a nude beach.Fort Zuma beach. Spent some real real good community spirit times there. The smoke of good pot drifting on the wind, naked wannabe movie starlets, a big air sea rescue of some naked dudes who got too far beyond the break water and were stoned as well clinging to rocks in the surf with their dingys hanging out. A naked passed out amazon black female right in the incoming pathway stoned out of her head and sleeping there for 3 hours straight. She got a real bad sun burn and woke up all fuzzy headed and puked some.
So yes I did see some community spirit. I walked down the main street of Woodstock one day and saw a hippy mother breast feeding her baby right on the curb downtown. That was 'community' and so I haven't seen real community since.Letting it all 'hang out' as we used to say in the far back dark ages.
But you know what? I don't see that type of stuff anymore. Its all different now. Its murder on the highways and if you put your thumb out to hitch you end up as fodder in some serial killers refrigerator or he's shooting acid in a hole drilled in your skull.
Oh yes swapping lawnmower tales across the privacy fence in the burbs. Chatting up the nubile one next door. Real stuff. They don't know but whose next door and sometimes not. Two houses down might be cannibals and no one would know. An axe murderer over the other way.
So I await this big coming together then.
I just don't see it. Not after so many trips on the interstates. Not after listening to elected representatives who only know you before the votes are taken and then your basically offal to them afterwards. After the ripoffs at the stores and merchants. After all the scuz I used to watch on TV. I just don't see it.
Churches I have attended are supposed to be communal and practice fellowship. Yet everyone here hates the Christian community and religion. So with all this hate and distrust just where is this sudden 'community spirit' going to come from?
So..when TSHTF(translated shitstorm)comes and one picks up and trudges to the outback, where all the food is, and finds a group of communal folks,,then he walks up and says "Hi,I am here to help you and you can trust me for my heart is pure"..and they are going to? Give me a brake.Or a break.
I don't see this coming off. Either you bring your own cadre out with you or your toast and maybe they will be toast too if you get pushy. Its just that way ,,,,IN MY OPINION.
No one is just going to share what they have. Not when its in short supply. No one is going to take you in , unless your a Paris Hilton(whatever the hell that is). I mean a breedable , cute female who can cook and so forth. Maybe..you got a slight chance then. Maybe. But how many can cook? They don't even know how to turn a stove on.
But now,hey you could just hole up in the city or burbs.There is no woods there, no bambis, no cute talking chipmunks and no where to run and no where to hide. No water and lots of dead peeple. Yuk. JIT inventory took care of all of that long long ago.
You got just two days worth at most of rations. You got ice cream that won't melt. You got your Little Debbie cakes and cookies. Real he-man stuff. Most of this is still junk food. It will kill you.
Airdale-a rant on a rant..not verifiable and no proofs.
Its ugly , its real, its not going to get a lot better when the rotor touches to kaka.
PS. My bumper sticker still reads:"Plants and animals disappear to make room for your fat azz" I wear it proudly. I do my part.
PPS. This has been a good rant. I feel much better now. Just canned 6 qts of Old South Lime Cucumber Slices. In the pantry and you can't have any. Picked up a Presto #7 16 qt canner at a yard sale on my way to Little Sturgis the other day for $5..the woman in the yard said "we need rain". I rode on with the canner on the pillion behind me. It was dry and I had to drink 3 Big Gulp bottles of store brought Sweet Tea to make the run. It was that dry. 400 miles and it was dry. I could hear the corn crying out for water as I passed the fields. I rode on...on down the two laner to Sturgis. Then I had to make the return run..no brewskis for I think Union County is dry. No beer til Leeder Bottoms on down the line. I rode on. The bike was making that 'packed' torqy sound that Prisig described so well in ZMM. The Vance and Hines straight shots telling it all as I drifted another nice curve and down a hill. I rode on.
PPS. What ever happened to the saga writer around here who used to pen all this sorta stuff. Personal things like.Stories about rolling blackouts and such. About a girl he remembered and how he done her wrong. Where did he go then?
PPPS. Don't be shy..if your shy here then how will you work it then? The spirit thing that is. If its bad in the green then how will it be in the dry? (Solomon?) And even the grasshopper shall be a burden...good words there. I love to read the bible. I think in the end all thats left will surely be down on their knees pleading with the skygod to please please send us some rain(the future I speak of).
Its more and worse than just a blacked out sports game on TV,,its your lifes blood. But who knows, certainly not I but I feel it in my bones. Something bad,something real bad this way comes.
ZMM- Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance...Not much about zen and not real good for maintenance...but good on philosophy. He talked about the 'machine age' and Budda in the machine. He found his ghost finally up in Colorado in the mountains. His son went with him. His son died on the street corner of Haight and Ashbury from a knife to the body by gangbangers a few years later. A readable book I highly recommend.
Airdale,
I like your posts, so I will answer.
When I notice the band of brigands approaching I'll bring out my extended family, each of them armed appropriately. I favor the British Lee Enfield #4 because of its simplicity, reliability, low cost, and ability to outshoot the modern crap that the U.S. army uses now. I was trained on Garands, and they are good too, but they are expensive.
I believe in overwhelming firepower plus well-thought-out fortifications. Prowlers will pick on easy targets before they go after hardened ones, so you don't necessarily have to have a batallion to defend your community. I think the experience of the Israeli kibbutz is highly relevant here, as is the training and tactics found in the Swiss cantons.
In my stock of trading goods are quantities of several different calibers of ammunition. Keep it cool and dry and it will last for decades.
One thing not to forget to stockpile in condoms. Latex was so short in supply during the Second World War that civilians were reusing condoms. Ugh. But I guess you are too young to remember that.
Don,
Had a Lee Enfield that I inherited from my father, who with 5 of his brothers were all in service in WWII. I never fired it sad to say but it looked rugged. Instead I selected the Ruger Mine-30 in AK-47 rounds. I later auctioned it off.
I do my own reloading however so that tells you where I am at.
The kibbutz. Yes I can agree with that. But Israel is a lot of open ground isn't it? Good fields of fire. Condoms...won't be needing those.
I used to favor the Winchester .243 in Sako. Sold it off to a friend as well. My Browning BPS Hunter..gone as well.
What I have left is worthwhile and what I intend to get is being played out right now.
But you didn't answer about the 'spirit of community', so I take it your extended family is it and thats well.
Good luck to you,
Airdale
PS. You might want to check out the Springfield Armory M1A in National Match. Far better reach than AR-15 clones or Armalite. Armalite being pretty decent with a flat top and picatinny rails. 24 inch floating barrel and two stage trigger in .223. Here is a good URL:
http://www.snipercountry.com/Articles/AR15_part1.asp
I think the .223 caliber is all right for women and eleven year old children to shoot, but I want a serious caliber for serious work.
My number one favorite is the Swedish Mauser 6.5 x 57 m.m. in those lovely Swedish guns made from 1896 to sometime around the end of World War II, I think.
Bolt action weapons are, IMO, first choice because of simplicity, reliability, durability, and accuracy.
Assault rifles are overrated because you have to have a trememdous amount of training to become effective with one, and most people just burn ammo aimlessly with them.
The U.S. Springfield 1903 is excellent, but it is slightly less durable than the Lee Enfield #4. German Mausers are good too, except when the quality fell off late in the Second World War.
The key of course is training.
I have lots of children and grandchildren and in laws, but I'm looking to relocate with more extensive community in mind.
I hear you on the "community spirit" thing.
I saw how it might go here @ the y2k event that didn't happen.In this neighborhood its a bit different.All older, retired folks who have seen hard times,and did the prep thing.This was good,as I knew my neighbors wouldn't be my first problem.Here on the edge of one of the more"survivable" cities,most of the older ones remember putting food by,and were raised by those who knew how close death can be
ZMM was a part of a summer I spent liveing @ Portland State,along with playing bluegrass guitar @ the Blitz Bluegrass Festival,and comeing to the bittersweet decision that I wanted more in life than playing guitar for money,longhair,beer,pretty girls.I had known a lot of pro musicians,but the merry crew I ran with that summer showed me what my life would be....
a footnote. saw the same group...some different members,25 years later...older women,long hair{getting gray},more beer,bad teeth,still hustling money from club owners...no growth,a dead end.
Your analisis is spot on for many.A brick wall at high speed.I stopped thinking that I had any ideas what could change whats comeing when the result of a carefully documented,reseached presentation to the oregon legislature was...... zilch.Nada.Dont talk to us.Your nuts.{These were the polite ones}
Things are changeing,slowly,too slowly for the magnitude of the comeing "phase-change"in energy usage.My latino wife and I work our selfs hard to build a liferaft of sorts.It will hold family,and those who we know will appear,who make up our tribe.Fruit trees,grapes,Kiwi vine,blueberries,raspberrys,marion berries,get it in the ground,get it growing,get the fences up,cut mountains of firewood,build greenhouses,glass,not plastic,forget plastic anything...get extra shovels,hoes,rakes...
Todays chore was putting a new side shed on the barn,more storage for household goods that may be in short supply...
I am starting to think that this administration intends to hit Iran,and use the resulting chaos to install a police state.How succesful they will be is anyones guess.I think things will start to get weird about that time....
Not only do I not want to see articles in the main media about peak oil, but I’ve quit saying anything about peak oil to anyone. Although I have concluded that trying to convince anyone peak oil is going to happen in the near future is futile - everyone looks at me as if I’m nuts - it is more important to prevent these same idiots from showing up at my door to benefit from my preparations and foresight when the shit hit’s the fan and very large urban areas become bedlam.
Bruce,
No disrespect intended, just want to give a different perspective.
I completely get what you say about people thinking you're nuts. PO preparations (the garden, near-zero consumer crap purchasing, ruthless debt shedding, designing the solar water heater, etc.) puts you on another planet as far as most people are concerned. You know the 'you seem to have a third eye in your forehead' look. And the wife loses huge social capital. That hurts.
But Community is going to be a critical success factor, IMVHO. No man is an island and all that.
An amusing yet comforting thought that helps keep me sane is that I'm the part of the larger organism that is pre-adapting. And when the environment requires these skills, the local community will have a source of post-peak DNA. By talking up PO as much as possible, I increase the chances that people will seek me out when PO replaces GW in the public's mind. Another common term for this is early adopters. But I don't like that term because it reinforces the notion of individuality. Maybe I am completely nuts.
I guess my point is that when the long, slow grind down the back slope begins, I actually hope that people seek me out for ideas, knowledge, and assistance. I actually do expect that people will start to do the right things (when, and not until, there is no other choice).
I absolutely love the gardening business that was in one of the recent posts. They build the site in your backyard, tend it, do the composting, and give the produce to the family. I sent them an email to see where they get their cut, but haven't heard back yet. Is it for cash? Or a cut of the produce? This is a brilliant model for sustainability. In my subdivision alone there is acres of potential garden space. Solves so many issues in one stroke. And here in NW Florida, we can grow darn near 12 months out of the year. Involve the kids in picking weeds or debugging. Mrs. X next door knows how to can and preserve (and cook a 'mess' of okra).
Build community. Be prepared to be a leader. Look like a complete wacko until then!!
Yeah, I must be nuts.
Best,
Ed
I'm relatively new to Peak Oil (only started reading about it a couple of months ago) and have been a member of TOD for a few weeks. What I would like to know is what are some good resources (books, sites) that would give me some concrete ideas about preparing for it. I've seen lots of books about Peak Oil and a lot of websites but haven't really found something that would apply to me specifically. I live in suburban NJ outside NYC within easy (5 minutes) walking distance of both a train line and supermarket. I have a small backyard where I could grow a garden although most of of it fairly shaded with large trees. I have begun to dig myself out of my debt and expect to be clear in a few months (minus the mortgage). Unfortunately I do drive 30 miles to work so perhaps I could find something closer if it could pay the bills.
Many of the people here seem to have their own farmlet or are intensive farmers. I have to admit that I'm probably not the type to sell all and move to some remote area of the country or the world for that matter. I simply wouldn't know where to begin on such a project and how does on survive in the meantime.
If anyone out there is in the same situation as me and who has been preparing for awhile I would be interested in corresponding and getting ideas.
Thanks in advance to anyone who chimes in.
Swanmtn63,
There are lots of book lists you can find by doing a search. Here are just a few that you might find interesting.
Country Wisdom & Know-How, Storey Books, ISBN 1-57912-368-6
How To Get Out of the Rat Race and Live on $10 a Month, Herter and Herter, 1971, Pre-ISBN
Farm Journal's Freezing and Canning Cookbook (revised edition), Ed. by Nell B. Nichols and Kathryn Larson, ISBN 0-385-13444-4
Down-To-Earth Vegetable Gardening Know-How, Dick Raymond, ISBN 0-88266-079-9
Making the Best of Basics James Stevens, ISBN 1-882723-25-2
The Encyclopedia of Country Living, Carla Emery, ISBN 1-57061-377-X
I would also throw in the Whole Earth catalog series and Foxfire books.
There are a million more. Note that I did not include John Jevon's book. It isn't a realistic approach to survival gardening. In fact, last year they couldn't get more than one meal's worth of food a day out of his garden because they didn't have enough compost.
Todd
Edit to get rid of ongoing italics.
Thanks Todd. I;ll take a look at he titles you suggest. I'm looking for a group in my area that I can discuss such things with. I thought I had found such a group but it doesn't appear to be very active. Looks like there was a lot of interest in Peak Oil back in 2005 and now some of these groups (both physical and cyber u such as Yahoo groups) seem to not be as active. What is your experience with such groups or do you even concern yourself with trying to discuss Peak Oil with others.
Hi Swan,
The reality is that most groups don't hold together very long. I assume you have read of Jason Bradford's group WELL in Willits, CA. I live in the "town" north of Willits and a similar group formed here. The group here is essentially dead. There are a number of reasons why: First, it takes a lot of energy by someone to simply keep things going such as get togethers on a regular basis.
Second, people have different views of the future. In the case of the group here, I stopped going to their meetings because they were into warm-fuzzy stuff. I'm into survival, really hard nosed survival. ("Hey, let's talk about weapons and tactics not a community kitchen."
Third, people talk the talk but don't walk the walk. In other words, people talk about relocalization, for example. But, they don't have any skills to produce anything.
What I have is a old buddy here who sees the same future as I do. We talk on the phone a few mornings a week and we pass information back and forth. We also give each other seeds or plant starts that look promising.
Got to quit. A load of water is arriving. I'll post more later.
Todd
Ok, I'm back. Our well pump went out a few weeks ago and the drilling contractor won't have his truck fixed to pull the pump until early July so I'm trucking in water - 3,000 gallons at a whack.
Anyway, I think in many respects you are better off finding a buddy like me rather than looking for a local group. Look at the variety of opinions posted on TOD. Matt and I would get along but I wouldn't want to be involved with many others here. To me, groups are also too unfocused.
One site, with an associated forum, that you might enjoy is http://www.survivalblog.com It's run by a guy named James Rawles. It covers the gamit of stuff related to survival from food to guns. Look at their archives. If you like survival fiction, Rawles has a book Patriots - Surviving the Coming Collapse. Although it is fiction, it has a lot of good survival information.
Hope this helps.
Todd
Hi Swan,
I found a link I couldn't find earlier. I have a series of 3" binders where I put useful information. I didn't have time earlier but I'm done irrigating. Here's a list of books that prints out at nine pages. It includes many that I have but didn't mention above for lack of time:
http://www.larkfarm.com/homestead_books.htm
The books are all rated and I agree with the ratings.
Todd
ELP
Economize, Localize, Produce
This is courtesy of westexas. Lately, I've been thinking of it as HELP, with the H as Humanize.
There is no single best, highly detailed answer. Everyone's circumstances are different. But ELP is the best guidepost. Jeff is much more eloquent, but the gist goes like this:
Economize: get out of debt. Now. reduce your spending. imagine you are receiving 50% of your current income. assuming you have drunk and believe the PO kool-aid (which I did the instant I read the Hirsch report) ditch the stupid spending that you will look back on later and KICK yourself for.
Localize: reduce your non-human powered transportation needs to as close to zero as possible. work from home. get a new job closer to home. find local entertainment, food sources, friends, etc.
Produce: what physical item or service do you produce that other people would be willing to trade you items of intrinsic value for. Good: water, food, clothing, energy. Bad: tanning booth operator, travel agent, Disney character. I'm working on food and solar energy. I've done a fair bit of piping stuff and there's the water utility down the road, close enough to bike to. People won't stop using water, so I'll be kicking some tires there.
Humanize (my spin). Establish social capital. Create a community network (local, economic producers of valuable goods and services preferably) that will bind together during stress. It does not matter if they believe in depletion; they will get it eventually. And it keeps you from believing the worst-case scenarios.
One last (smirk) lesson from experience. You will no longer fit into the established social fabric. Accept it. Get over it. The malls, SUV's, American Idols, and Paris Hiltons appear more and more grotesque, and you my friend will be the weird one.
I may be wrong, but it seems we're headed to a world where fast and far is defined by bicycle scales, and energy consumption is at solar input levels: up at dawn, down at dusk, tend the veggies, tweak the water heater, and can over your solar oven. We certainly won't go from here to there in one great big leap. And yes there are other pesky details that I'm glossing over. Catabolic collapse is a slow, grinding thing (I hope!). Most SUV's will have to be pried from people's cold, dead fingers. But the point is if you can be comfortable at that level psychologically then you are WAY ahead of the game. Use excess cash to pay debt to zero. Hell, being in good shape with zero debt eating fresh veggies and playing Risk with the kids is hardly a bad thing!
Finally, lately I've been challenging myself to maximize the Improvement : Energy Use ratio. i.e., is my use of energy directed towards sustained practices or towards frivolous increases in entropy.
I live in Orange County, New York and am working on a 800-acre organic farm that is just getting underway. We are looking for free labor and in return can supply lots of vegetable for canning, drying and cold storage. Leave your email and I will get in touch if you're interested.
Lisa
Hey Sandiego - shoot me a note at bk "at" bkhere.com
Get to know who your neighbors are or who you want them to be. Are they someone you are willing to die for? Will they be sacrificed for you? Build a perimeter of warnings, whether economically, agriculturally, or tactically. Build your skill set and your tool and book collection. Learn when to retreat and when to hide.
That said, I haven't done a damn thing except drop out of the ratrace as much as I can because I think it's hopeless due to the coming climate flip/trucking company collapses/wars/government camps/secret teams/poisoned food/etc. and if it's not completely hopeless, I have enough skills to sell my technical services and enough psychopathic tendencies to use them. If it moves, shoot. If it shoots, move.
"I'll kill a man in a fair fight; or if I think he's gonna start a fair fight; or for money; or if there's a woman. But EATIN' people? When does THAT get fun?" Jayne: "Serenity"
Hi Swann - I'm in Jersey too. Wanna chat off TOD? I'm at: bk "at" bkhere.com
Anything I do to educate the world on this, I do pretty anonymously. It's an odd sort of activism, but the stuff you might wish to tell the world is not necessarily the stuff you want to tell those nearby. Because the fact is you will NOT convince your neighbors of peak oil, but once they get hungry they'll have time to think, and they'll think about who might have the stuff they don't.
Think globally, act sheeplike locally. When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro.
As I said before, I alternate between the Matt Savinar and Alan Drake camps.
A scary story in support of Matt's thesis: Wednesday night, a woman (eight months pregnant) and her husband were peacefully sleeping in their upscale urban downtown Dallas apartment, with windows facing a freeway. Someone driving past the area at 2:00 A.M. sprayed the apartment complex with random gunfire. One of the bullets went through the window and hit the woman in the abdomen, killing the baby. The apartment management had already canceled plans for more apartments because of high security costs and lower than expected rents (due to high crime rates). I expect random acts of violence to become more common, especially against those perceived as being better off.
Having said that, I have proposed an acronym, wEn: Alan Drake's Electrification of Transportation Plan (E) supported by wind (w) and nuclear (n), if for no other reason that we are going to desperately need the jobs for unemployed angry males.
Edit: after reader feedback, how about the "nEw Program."
Am I optimistic? No. Can we at least try? Yes.
Geez, Matt, they're gonna find out. I hope people aren't planning with the idea that this will be our little secret. It seems like the point of this website is to analyze the situation and spread the meme. It also seems like the news on your website is about informing people too. If not, why do you post things there?
I think *everyone* is going to figure out that the wheels are coming off. Probably about a quarter will figure out why, and about a quarter of those will really understand what's going on and how big the problem is. All we get is a headstart and some amount of roadmap. Count your blessings.
Sure my town may become Baghdad, but at least I know it may become Baghdad. I can do a lot of good with that amount of knowledge - I may even be able to help more than my family. If we're all going to be playing defense, and there's safety in numbers, the more you can help, the better.
I seriously doubt anything I do at my 6,500 visit a day site is going to have any discernable effect on the aggregate population or the markets in the aggregate.
So I can speak the truth as I see it there with no concerne it's going to affect the markets or the population in the aggregate.
The site averages 6,500 or so visits a day but my guess is there are only 3,000 or so regular readers. So my impact is pretty minimal in the big picture.
I honestly think you're wrong. If Rainwater looked at LATOC even once, it had an effect. I bet you're having a much larger impact than you imagine. Is it going to change the world? That depends on how many people in power find your site. I bet some people in charge in my town of 100,000 have. I've talked with some of them and they're starting to get it.
Heck, if nothing else, maybe MSM articles will end up sending some business your way.