<Peak Oil Update - June 2007: Production Forecasts and EIA Oil Production NumbersThe Oil DrumDrumBeat: June 15, 2007>

124 comments on And now, the latest on peak oil from...Business Week?!

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MUDLOGGER on June 15, 2007 - 4:57am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Hi Chimp:

More one for Matt Savinar I think, not directly related to PO, but you have to laugh (and it is a Friday):

Wheels coming off Globalisation?

Or: When poverty knocks ont’ door, love flies out the window…

Wal-Mart branded anti-US in China row

By Mark Kleinman in Hong Kong
Last Updated: 3:15am BST 15/06/2007

Wal-Mart was plunged into the heart of the row over the US's massive trade deficit with China yesterday as it faced accusations that an influx of cheap Chinese imports had rendered the retailer "un-American".

Wal-Mart said it still sourced from within the US as much as was commercially viable
The allegations from a US pressure group funded by one of the country's biggest trade unions strike at the heart of the debate over globalisation and come as US politicians step up pressure for a draconian series of trade sanctions against the Chinese government.
A television advertising campaign by WakeUpWalMart.com, an organisation funded by the United Food Commercial Workers' Union, cites a memo from Sam Walton, founder of the world's biggest retailer, in which he pledged to keep Wal-Mart American.
"No company has done more than Wal-Mart to strengthen China and weaken America," said Paul Blank, director of WakeUpWalMart.com. "The time has come for every American to demand that Wal-Mart stop making China stronger at the expense of American jobs and America's economy."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/06/15/cnwalm...

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Smokey on June 15, 2007 - 9:28am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I believe these kinds of predictions are unnecessarily alarmist. During the Great Depression, we were able to turn away from individualism and toward cooperation. No doubt peak oil will be difficult (especially economically) but I believe we'll adapt better than some here expect. For example, there's an interesting article about the difference between men and women: in times of stress men fight and flight, where as women tend and befriend. Perhaps in a peak oil situation women will step up to the plate to lead the charge on tending and befriending. The world will increasingly need this.

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The Chimp Who Can Drive on June 15, 2007 - 10:52am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Smokey,

As usual, it takes 5 seconds before somebody posts a deeply flawed reference to the GD.

The bad news is that during the Great Depression, which was global, Hitler took over Europe and killed tens of millions people.

The good news is Roosevelt took over here, went to war with Japan and Genermany, and then his successor initiated a regional nuclear holocaust in Asia.

Back then we had 2 nuclear bombs. Today we have 20,000. And unlike back then, the energy wealth pie is now decreasing.

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Don in Colorado on June 15, 2007 - 11:37am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

There is now a name for people moving to the valley where I live. They're actually being called "peak-oil refugees."

At least that's what the real estate people call them.

So an exodus appears to be starting ...

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airdale on June 15, 2007 - 12:12pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Green/Refugees:

Down a bit south of Raleigh, NC..just past the city limits there are new plats that are going to be developed and the houses will be termed "GREEN".

They will be VERY expensive. This is the new mantra and scheme for the developers I suppose..ones who are very likely reading TOD and plotting a new way to make money off PO and CC.

Expensive is like maybe close to a million whereas current prices in the neighborhood are ranging from $250,000 to $500,00.

This is where my son just brought and where I have visited several times. The land in question was previously NOT going to be developed and it lent a huge amount of privacy in a very nice, not too overly developed area but now the money hounds are at it tooth and nail.

I bet it will be gated as well. There goes the neighborhood.

Airdale

PS. Might be interesting to google ,development and green.
Bet this will go over big time and I note that there is NO housing bubble bursting in this area of NC. There was in 85 when I moved away and had to let the relocation firm take over my North Raleigh(Wake County) residence. There are some areas of this location that are in a declining market but only slightly so based on demographics(meaning poor white trash or ethnically undesirable to put it nicely).

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Smokey on June 15, 2007 - 11:40am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Chimp, your arguments are meaningless. Because conditions are different today than they were in 1930, total collapse is the only possible outcome? Neither you, nor I, nor anyone else can predict how this will all shake out.

The seeds of positive change may have already been planted... from Empire to Earth Community, as the book says. With the three big threats of peak oil, climate change, and economic meltdown we may be able to find a better way, we can do so much better. Not that there won't be hardship and strife along the way.

I find the obsession with insisting that there is "no option but total collapse" a bit ridiculous. There are many possible outcomes.

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bruce from chicago on June 15, 2007 - 12:42pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Yes things are different, they potentially are much worse. Declining energy supplies on the horizon. Religious fundamentalists - Moslem and Christian. An empire that is overstretched with a declining manufacturing and energy base Other countries waiting in the wings to become empires. The whole history of humans is written in blood and conflict and I see no reason presently this will change. We at the Oildrum may be educated (reference to the poll) and civilized, but given a large portion of the world’s populace that believes in a man up in the sky that watches over us I don’t put much faith in them ever being reached by reasonable arguments. Yes there are a number of potential outcomes, but I’ll put my money what I feel is the most likely one given human history. A very short history at that, only a few thousand years of civilization. Not a long track record to go on. I can’t prove it, it’s a hunch, a word that is held with contempt on this site, but I literally bet the farm on it.

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directinfo on June 16, 2007 - 9:49am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I agree... the only difference is that things are much worse.

We are more extended on paper meaningless dollars. In 1929 at least the dollars were tied to gold.

And population numbers? Ha.

And what about ability to work the land? Double - ha.

And how about social fabric? Can we say "tinder box"? Ready to explode, all of it.

It feels better to think "nobody knows" but we all know that this will end up far, far, far worse than any 1929 or any black plague or any dark age. We are way over the line here.

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The Chimp Who Can Drive on June 15, 2007 - 1:08pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Oh God you drank the Korten Kool-Aid. This is a guy who - I kid you not - described the Baby Boomers as the generation of "wise elders."

Seeds of positive change? LMAO! Dude, we're spending $1.2 trillion (on the books) and lord knows how much off the books in military spending. Another 1.8 trillion or so on oil. Who knows how much on advertising. I could go on. . . In contrast there are at best a few billion being spent on anything positive. Trillions for catastrophe, billions for positive change and the gap is only worsening with each passing year. Where does this lead us?

Conditions are far worse than in 1930. The energy pie was getting bigger back then. It is now shrinking. And it is shrinking in the context of a world spending at least $1.2 trillion a year developing and deploying highly advanced killing technologies.

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peakearl on June 15, 2007 - 3:16pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

History and the bible can be twisted to support any belief system. Never mind that through the depression and up until Pearl Harbor was bombed the peace movement was one of the most powerful political movements in the country. Have you ever talked to those who survived due to the CCC or WPA? I've heard lots of their stories, they are proud of the country, what they did and how they survived, and never went for anarchy. My parents, inlaws and all their friends lived through the great depression and wouldn't recognize what you are talking about. The suffering, yes, but the attitudes and outlooks, no.

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musashi on June 15, 2007 - 1:00pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

During the depression the 4th world wasn't living 3 feet off your door step.

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