 | Peak Oil Update - June 2007: Production Forecasts and EIA Oil Production Numbers | The Oil Drum | DrumBeat: June 15, 2007 |  |
124 comments on And now, the latest on peak oil from...Business Week?!
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Smokey,
As usual, it takes 5 seconds before somebody posts a deeply flawed reference to the GD.
The bad news is that during the Great Depression, which was global, Hitler took over Europe and killed tens of millions people.
The good news is Roosevelt took over here, went to war with Japan and Genermany, and then his successor initiated a regional nuclear holocaust in Asia.
Back then we had 2 nuclear bombs. Today we have 20,000. And unlike back then, the energy wealth pie is now decreasing.
There is now a name for people moving to the valley where I live. They're actually being called "peak-oil refugees."
At least that's what the real estate people call them.
So an exodus appears to be starting ...
Green/Refugees:
Down a bit south of Raleigh, NC..just past the city limits there are new plats that are going to be developed and the houses will be termed "GREEN".
They will be VERY expensive. This is the new mantra and scheme for the developers I suppose..ones who are very likely reading TOD and plotting a new way to make money off PO and CC.
Expensive is like maybe close to a million whereas current prices in the neighborhood are ranging from $250,000 to $500,00.
This is where my son just brought and where I have visited several times. The land in question was previously NOT going to be developed and it lent a huge amount of privacy in a very nice, not too overly developed area but now the money hounds are at it tooth and nail.
I bet it will be gated as well. There goes the neighborhood.
Airdale
PS. Might be interesting to google ,development and green.
Bet this will go over big time and I note that there is NO housing bubble bursting in this area of NC. There was in 85 when I moved away and had to let the relocation firm take over my North Raleigh(Wake County) residence. There are some areas of this location that are in a declining market but only slightly so based on demographics(meaning poor white trash or ethnically undesirable to put it nicely).
Chimp, your arguments are meaningless. Because conditions are different today than they were in 1930, total collapse is the only possible outcome? Neither you, nor I, nor anyone else can predict how this will all shake out.
The seeds of positive change may have already been planted... from Empire to Earth Community, as the book says. With the three big threats of peak oil, climate change, and economic meltdown we may be able to find a better way, we can do so much better. Not that there won't be hardship and strife along the way.
I find the obsession with insisting that there is "no option but total collapse" a bit ridiculous. There are many possible outcomes.
Yes things are different, they potentially are much worse. Declining energy supplies on the horizon. Religious fundamentalists - Moslem and Christian. An empire that is overstretched with a declining manufacturing and energy base Other countries waiting in the wings to become empires. The whole history of humans is written in blood and conflict and I see no reason presently this will change. We at the Oildrum may be educated (reference to the poll) and civilized, but given a large portion of the world’s populace that believes in a man up in the sky that watches over us I don’t put much faith in them ever being reached by reasonable arguments. Yes there are a number of potential outcomes, but I’ll put my money what I feel is the most likely one given human history. A very short history at that, only a few thousand years of civilization. Not a long track record to go on. I can’t prove it, it’s a hunch, a word that is held with contempt on this site, but I literally bet the farm on it.
I agree... the only difference is that things are much worse.
We are more extended on paper meaningless dollars. In 1929 at least the dollars were tied to gold.
And population numbers? Ha.
And what about ability to work the land? Double - ha.
And how about social fabric? Can we say "tinder box"? Ready to explode, all of it.
It feels better to think "nobody knows" but we all know that this will end up far, far, far worse than any 1929 or any black plague or any dark age. We are way over the line here.
Oh God you drank the Korten Kool-Aid. This is a guy who - I kid you not - described the Baby Boomers as the generation of "wise elders."
Seeds of positive change? LMAO! Dude, we're spending $1.2 trillion (on the books) and lord knows how much off the books in military spending. Another 1.8 trillion or so on oil. Who knows how much on advertising. I could go on. . . In contrast there are at best a few billion being spent on anything positive. Trillions for catastrophe, billions for positive change and the gap is only worsening with each passing year. Where does this lead us?
Conditions are far worse than in 1930. The energy pie was getting bigger back then. It is now shrinking. And it is shrinking in the context of a world spending at least $1.2 trillion a year developing and deploying highly advanced killing technologies.
History and the bible can be twisted to support any belief system. Never mind that through the depression and up until Pearl Harbor was bombed the peace movement was one of the most powerful political movements in the country. Have you ever talked to those who survived due to the CCC or WPA? I've heard lots of their stories, they are proud of the country, what they did and how they survived, and never went for anarchy. My parents, inlaws and all their friends lived through the great depression and wouldn't recognize what you are talking about. The suffering, yes, but the attitudes and outlooks, no.