The Oil Drum

124 comments on And now, the latest on peak oil from...Business Week?!

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Smokey on June 15, 2007 - 11:40am

Chimp, your arguments are meaningless. Because conditions are different today than they were in 1930, total collapse is the only possible outcome? Neither you, nor I, nor anyone else can predict how this will all shake out.

The seeds of positive change may have already been planted... from Empire to Earth Community, as the book says. With the three big threats of peak oil, climate change, and economic meltdown we may be able to find a better way, we can do so much better. Not that there won't be hardship and strife along the way.

I find the obsession with insisting that there is "no option but total collapse" a bit ridiculous. There are many possible outcomes.

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bruce from chicago on June 15, 2007 - 12:42pm

Yes things are different, they potentially are much worse. Declining energy supplies on the horizon. Religious fundamentalists - Moslem and Christian. An empire that is overstretched with a declining manufacturing and energy base Other countries waiting in the wings to become empires. The whole history of humans is written in blood and conflict and I see no reason presently this will change. We at the Oildrum may be educated (reference to the poll) and civilized, but given a large portion of the world’s populace that believes in a man up in the sky that watches over us I don’t put much faith in them ever being reached by reasonable arguments. Yes there are a number of potential outcomes, but I’ll put my money what I feel is the most likely one given human history. A very short history at that, only a few thousand years of civilization. Not a long track record to go on. I can’t prove it, it’s a hunch, a word that is held with contempt on this site, but I literally bet the farm on it.

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directinfo on June 16, 2007 - 9:49am

I agree... the only difference is that things are much worse.

We are more extended on paper meaningless dollars. In 1929 at least the dollars were tied to gold.

And population numbers? Ha.

And what about ability to work the land? Double - ha.

And how about social fabric? Can we say "tinder box"? Ready to explode, all of it.

It feels better to think "nobody knows" but we all know that this will end up far, far, far worse than any 1929 or any black plague or any dark age. We are way over the line here.

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The Chimp Who Can Drive on June 15, 2007 - 1:08pm

Oh God you drank the Korten Kool-Aid. This is a guy who - I kid you not - described the Baby Boomers as the generation of "wise elders."

Seeds of positive change? LMAO! Dude, we're spending $1.2 trillion (on the books) and lord knows how much off the books in military spending. Another 1.8 trillion or so on oil. Who knows how much on advertising. I could go on. . . In contrast there are at best a few billion being spent on anything positive. Trillions for catastrophe, billions for positive change and the gap is only worsening with each passing year. Where does this lead us?

Conditions are far worse than in 1930. The energy pie was getting bigger back then. It is now shrinking. And it is shrinking in the context of a world spending at least $1.2 trillion a year developing and deploying highly advanced killing technologies.