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196 comments on DrumBeat: June 15, 2007
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196 comments on DrumBeat: June 15, 2007
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On the "Could some win with global warming topic":
I used to work at the university campus next to where they were constructing the Greenhouse Gas Research Technology Centre in Regina. Construction here goes year round, regardless of weather.
I was watching the crew put on the metal roof in February, four stories up in -25C with a 30km/h wind. I was wondering if they interviewed the construction crew what their personal research into the effects of Global Warming would be at the moment.
I would imagine you would get a two word research report and one of the words would have 4 letters. :-)
Could some win with global warming?
Some of these articles are so devoid of substance, it makes them hilarious:
Yes, the man's an economist. Bright ones, those.
The only people arriving by the end of the century will be invading hordes, not tourists. You can tell by the fact that they come on foot, and carry guns.
Wow, 220% in only ... 93 years??
Just think of all the money to be made in Canadian tourism with an astonishing 0.85% annual growth rate.
Dr. Albert Bartlett, where are you?
http://globalpublicmedia.com/dr_albert_bartlett_arithmetic_population_an...
I emailed Dr. Bartlett some of my stuff on the Export Land Model. He is mailing me an article he did on the topic 21 years ago. (Good thing that I never claimed to be doing original work on the topic.)
Jeffrey,
That sounds interesting. Please share. Read a fair bit of the nutty professor, but don't recall this.
He's sending it snail mail. I'll try to post a summary.
HeIs: I live in Toronto, one of the warmest cities in Canada. The temp increase necessary to make this town bearable from Nov to April would put the entire state of Florida underwater (along with other nasty surprises). Sounds like an economist.
"The temp increase necessary to make this town bearable from Nov to April would put the entire state of Florida underwater (along with other nasty surprises)."
That could happen.
Prediction of "business as usual" includes +5 C by 2100.
That's 9 degrees F. And that 9 degrees includes the global average over the entire planet, including the 70% of water.
We know that land will change more, obviously, so Toronto will change more, and we know that with GW the polar latitudes will heat more than the equatorial ones (roughly), and that winter temps will increase more than summer temperatures.
Consider the possibility of a 20 degree F change in winter temperatures---on average---and now include some extreme warm events---that's a pretty big difference.
Florida might not be all underwater, but could be depopulated of permanent residents because of the occasional Category 8 hurricane and the unwillingness for any insurance company to write anything.
Besides, it would be unbearably hot and humid--110F with 100% humidity for 6 months of the year.
Is there a difference between Economics and Astrology?
Economics can predict simple systems, but scales very poorly. The world is complicated, so complicated noone understands it all (maybe Buffet but probably not, i guess he concentrates of specific areas and signals).
Yes.
Astrologers (successful ones) have a good insight into people and what makes them tick.
“An economist is an expert who will know tomorrow why the things he predicted yesterday didn't happen today.”
-Laurence J. Peter
Richard C
What I don't understand about these positive prognostications on the effects of GW on colder climates is how narrow minded and out of touch they are with what the reality may be. The possibilities are that we will see more severe storms and droughts and temperature extremes that would not benefit crops, and would not attract tourism (assuming there were much tourism left). There is no way to predict what locations might see any net benefit, if there is any to be had. It may be possible that some areas are better off, but I think the probabilities are slim that areas the size of Canada or Russia see overall benefits.