But, should TOD / energy specialists / people concerned about Peak Oil celebrate 35 mpg? (35 mph would probably get us far better than 35 mpg ...) We should be pointing out, imo, that "politically acceptable" is not adequate for dealing with real-world challenges like Peak Oil.

A, I am with you--but as you surely are well aware by now, politically palatable is all that MoC's CAN care about if they like their job.

That's why I am pushing for valuable insights inside the framework of the legislating process as it stands currently. We are not going to persuade any MoC's of much of anything in two weeks without a massive movement and events on our side.

All I am suggesting is that we help steer the rudder as much as we can without losing the bargaining game. That's ALL this is right now, a bargaining game--understanding which bills need improving/amending, which bills to support, and the interplay between pieces of legislation doing a lot of damage...

My view that 35 mpg is the upper end of what is doable is based on a couple of things. 35 mpg is a 40% increase over where we are today. In 2002 the National Academy of Sciences did a study which I think concluded that a 25% increase in fuel economy was possible using then current tech. It would add $1000 to the cost of a vehicle which would be paid back in gas savings over the life of the car. To get a 40% improvement we will need some new tech by 2020 which probably means hybrids.

Secondly, other countries are targeting 35 mpg or less except for Japan which I think is going for 40 mpg. They want to get there before 2020 but they don't have as far to go as we do.

Thirdly Americans have always demanded larger cars and will not accept the superminis that Europeans and Japanese ride around in. Also, Europeans use diesels to get their high fuel economy and US emmissions standards make diesels difficult.

Finally many Americans would like to give Detroit a chance of survival. Those companies are very weak, and if they fail the well paid union jobs and pension plans will be a thing of the past. If you set the CAFE standard too high then they are doomed. Of course if they get their way and do nothing on fuel economy, then they are also doomed.

I really hope you're talking about political feasibility, but the way you're saying it almost implies you're not. The technology is sitting around to pretty much easily do 60mpg cars - no hybrid required. That would be cars that would look "normal" on todays roads. Look at the VW Lupo...3liters per 100km, basically in the 80mpg range. Then there are zillions of cars that Americans have never heard of that are running around in Europe. Take a look at this link. There are four cars that they tested there that get 45mpg or better at 55mph and only one, the Prius, is available in the US. Hell, the Echo is available in the US and my friend that owns one usually pulls 40mpg real-world fuel economy and I know he doesn't drive slowly. After you look around Europe and see all the great cars they have over there that get fuel mileage that would easily exceed the lame 35mpg standard just put through the Senate you can turn your starry eyes to The Loremo and The VW 1 Liter. The Loremo is slated to be a production car and expected to get 140ish MPG, and the VW 1 Liter which was more of a concept car but also a proof of concept vehicle in the upper 200MPG's. Hat nod to The VentureOne (100mpg) and The Aptera (230mpg) and The Mercedes Boxfish (80mpg, and not at all small or slow)

If Detroit would put as much effort into engineering as it did into marketing and image manufacturing, it might actually build some decent cars. Todays cars are dime a dozen overglorified throw away toys meant to be cheap to manufacture and their aerodynamics are dictated by the marketing department. If the guys on gassavers.org can increase their fuel economy 15% with simple homebrew modifications to existing vehicles like fender skirts, grille blocking and body pans, imagine what an actual effort by engineers with CFD and wind tunnels might acheive. After years of lobbying for and promoting the status quo, Detroit's dug their own grave and it's high time they lay in it.

It's really a question of political and commercial feasibility. I've been travelling between the US and UK for years, and when I come back to the US all the US cars look huge. It's always been that way. US cars used to be super long and wide, now they are massive in every dimension compared to a typical European vehicle. I think it is a cultural thing. Also car parks and roads are about one third narrower in the UK than what we are used to here in the States. Large cars are not fun to drive over there. Europeans are quite happy with cars that are small, fast and corner well.

Your 80mpg Lupo is an impressive piece of engineering, but on a US road it would look like a toy car. Very few Americans would buy it willingly. In fact, there are plenty of Europeans who want something bigger and more powerful.

Sub--
I drive a Toyota Yaris and get over 40+ on the highway right now. With the new diesel hybrids coming on line in Europe, 40 will be a embarrassing small number shortly.
Getting the sheeple to give up driving the 4X4 to WallCrap for a case of Bud will be the big hurdle (during half time of course.

A key point you haven't mentioned is that the 35mpg requirement is for all passenger vehicles. That is, they are proposing to do away with the car/truck distinction. Recall that truck sales are more than 50% of American passenger vehicle sales (see Ward's Automotive most recent update.

The average US fuel economy is about 17mpg, since there are so many trucks out there. The average new vehicle fuel economy is about 22mpg. The proposal for a 35mpg new vehicle average by 2020 is quite a bit more impressive when you consider that it includes trucks.

http://www.nhtsa.dot.gov/cars/rules/cafe/overview.htm

The way CAFE is set up is interesting, for sure. The legislation is definitely a step in the right direction, though the idea of the "footprint" is a little disturbing as it's likely to form a giant loophole big enough to drive an SUV through. That link you provide actually shows sales about perfectly split, which is a little surprising as I'd imagined it more biased towards truck sales. The CAFE is calculated based on the fuel economy and fleet sales. So if you were to have an SUV/light truck rated at 20 mpg...on a 1 to 1 basis for CAFE purposes you would have to have a 50mpg vehicle to counter it. On a 2 to 1 basis to counter a 20mpg SUV/Truck the other vehicles would have to be rated at 42.5mpg. An SUV at 25mpg would require a 45mpg vehicle to counter it or two 40 mpg vehicles. Of course they can put out all the 35mpg vehicles they want. So that would, indeed, be impressive...but it'll be interesting to see how the "footprint" wild card plays out and the flex fuel credits. The only problem with it being impressive in comparison to today's standards is that it's still not going to be enough, the production decline is more than likely going to overrun its effect by a long shot. But considering the people who passed it (supposedly) aren't aware of peak oil makes it even more amazing that it got through. Through the re-introduction of the mini-truck, aero improvements, minor overall size reduction, and minor power reduction, increased diesel fleet, and possibly a few hyper-mileage cars thrown in, I think 35mpg would be achievable without hybrids and without a "holy s$h!t" dramatic change in the way things look.

Hi Sub
Ever had a semi on your tail for an hour because you made the mistake of flashing your brights when you passed? In your 3cylinder 50mpg car? Think Duel. Thats the kind of vehicle you're going to have to share the road with. And I don't see anything in the legislation improving semi fuel economy.(correct me if I'm wrong)
The main thrust of this legislation is aimed at the pick up. And that is going to affect the pocketbook of many Americans.

If the guys on gassavers.org can increase their fuel economy 15% with simple homebrew modifications to existing vehicles like fender skirts, grille blocking and body pans, imagine what an actual effort by engineers with CFD and wind tunnels might acheive.

Hooboy! Skirts! As an automotive designer let me state catagorically that if skirts would sell they'd be on every damn vehicle we make!
Sure theres more to be got from aero and weight too but I was talking to some guys from the aero group the other day and they have made trucks that get great mileage. How? Carbon fiber and titanium! Is anybody out there willing to pay $100,000+ for a 40mpg pick up? Because if there are enough of you we sure as hell will make them!

"As an automotive designer..."

Ah, you are one of "they." Now that I've insulted you...

Ever had a semi on your tail for an hour because you made the mistake of flashing your brights when you passed? In your 3cylinder 50mpg car? Think Duel. Thats the kind of vehicle you're going to have to share the road with.

This is probably the worst argument I've ever heard. Even if you pissed off the driver of an 18 wheeler, and they started tailgating you...you could, my gosh!, pull off at the next offramp. It's exceedingly unlikely that they'd follow you and waste their time and money. They're professional drivers and they simply aren't that stupid.

And I don't see anything in the legislation improving semi fuel economy.

Holy H311, you slipped in an actual point! 18 wheelers do have a ways to go, especially aerodynmically. Look at the designs of Luigi Colani, for example. Large improvements in efficiency using standard engines. A lower speed limit specifically for trucks would also help fuel efficiency and create jobs.

Hooboy! Skirts! As an automotive designer let me state catagorically that if skirts would sell they'd be on every damn vehicle we make!

1957 Chevy Belair, 1956 Ford Thunderbird...these are classics, man. The fender skirts can live again. They just need the marketing departments behind them instead of "Got flaccid penis? Drive a NITRO!!! It'll perk that sucker right up!" Yes, a barn door will make you more manly.

Sure theres more to be got from aero and weight too but I was talking to some guys from the aero group the other day and they have made trucks that get great mileage. How? Carbon fiber and titanium!

Sounds like they're unimaginative, or as I said before...ruled by the marketing department.

"In 2002 the National Academy of Sciences did a study which I think concluded that a 25% increase in fuel economy was possible using then current tech."

I'm driving a '95 Prizm. Typically this car gets 25mpg in my mixed high/city use. Simply by driving more conservatively (max 45-50mph, slow starts at lights) I can bump the mileage up by 20%. With aggressive conservation I can get 33mpg.

Thus I question the idea that it would take technology changes to make a great impact on our fuel consumption. The weakest link in automotive efficiency is the nut behind the steering wheel.

Electric utilities have discovered that immediate feedback on consumption very quickly results in voluntary individual conservation. Perhaps what is needed is not technology changes to the cars, but instrumentation changes.

Many BMW's (and other cars as well I imagine) have a button on the console that puts the vehicle into 'sport' mode where the computer adjusts shift points and fuel mixture for maximum performance. Perhaps new vehicles should be required to have a software option that places strong performance limits to assist the driver's natural impulse to drive aggressivly. This could be as simple as a 'conservation' button, much like the 'sport' button on the BMW.

Along with this would be a consumption rate meter in a conspicuous location. Perhaps as a head-up display of some sort, so that drivers are aware of it during acceleration, when their attention is typically on the traffic around them. This would help them to understand which driving behaviors consume the most fuel. The indicator would provide both a quantitative measure (cc/s) and qualitative measure (e.g., green or red light of varying intensity).

These ideas do not require any changes to the technology in the vehicles and can provide a 25 to 35 percent increase in fuel economy, driver willing. Once a driver has learned the driving habits of conservation the gains extend to other vehicles he drives as well.

So, future legislation might pick the low-hanging fruit by requiring car makers to include a performance-limiting dash switch that limits the fuel consumption of the vehicle at the users option and a short-period moving average fuel consumption rate indicator. This allows car makers to very cheaply encourage conservative behavior without requiring them to invent new technology or to significantly reduce the performance characteristics of their offerings.

As an extension auto makers might include a very simple short range wireless communication module that would allow vehicles to share their consumption information. Each vehicle would compare it's own consumption rate with that of the vehicles around it and then display to the driver his ranking. This would be designed to encourage competitive conservation. (Some people would cheat by broadcasting false signals of course, but if widely deployed cheaters would have minimal impact)