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188 comments on IEA: without Iraqi oil, we'll be in deep trouble by 2015
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188 comments on IEA: without Iraqi oil, we'll be in deep trouble by 2015
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Jerome - thanks very much for this translation - amazing stuff? So if Birol is chief economist at IEA does that mean a major shift in IEA reporting standards or will he be sacked?
I sense a significant increase in main stream media PO coverage and in growing acceptance at higher political levels. If Mr Birol wants an unofficial reason to doubt Saudi reserves he may want to look at Lies, damned lies and BP statistics, or maybe he already did?
Pardon my french, but doesn't Birol actually put it rather stronger than your translation suggests.
I read:
If Iraqi production fails to rise exponentially from now on until 2015 we have a very big problem...." ???
Classical economic theory rests on the solid foundation of the fourth Law of Thermodynamics.
You're correct. "if it has not risen massively by 2015" would be a better wording, maybe.
thanks for the post Jerome.
trans:
If Iraqi oil production doesn't increase exponentially from today to 2015,
/we have a major problem
/a serious problem ...
/etc.
We'll be in deep doo-doo in any case. While Iraq may be the last largely untapped reserve aboard this planet, it can only plateau the peak. Sooner or later we all must deal with the slow but maddening decline. After all, demand is ridiculously inelastic. Demand only drops due to demand destruction. Since Africa is notorious for poverty, demand destruction will occur there first. But it's not just Africa. Consider the case of Iran, of all places.
As we type, Iran became the first country to invoke gasoline rationing. Iranians decide to suddenly torch gas stations in protest, which only makes matters all the worse. Talk about poetic justice. What better place to have to invoke gas rationing. All we need to do is shut the gasoline valve the rest of the way to bring Mahkmoud Ahmadinejad to his knees. And be sure to take a monkey wrench to the valve handle to shut it tight. Then, we just sit back and watch the Iranians do our dirty work for us.
All the better, Europe will have plenty of incentive to shut that valve on Iran. Officials of the EU need to get re-elected so anything they do to slow the inevitable rise in petrol prices will get them a constituency. So, shutting the valve on Iran means more petrol for Europe.
That'll leave our friend Mahkmoud a rough choice. Either build refineries OR continue trying to build a nuclear bomb. But he cannot have both. He had better choose wisely. The power over Iran is in the hands of the EU officials. They can shut that valve or leave it partially open. The EU can effectively say "Either you cut out your nuke programme or we finish shutting the valve". Welcome to the post-peak world!
Petrol prices high enough yet? Just wait!
Thanks for including the original text along with your translations. I hope that future article translations will follow this example.
I first got on the topic of the oil peak from Jay Hanson's infamous dieoff site. When I heard GW Bush wanted to invade Iraq I knew what it was about. He wanted for his friends a nice largely untapped oil province to make gigabucks from to plateau the peak. From the day gas was 99 cents/gallon in 1999 on I knew that gas prices were going to rise.
I took Bush's Iraq invasion to be a sign that we are getting awful close to the oil peak. I also see the 9/11 disaster to be a perfect excuse to generate fear to distract the public. It sure worked! Fun conspiracy theory: The Bush and bin Laden family are awful close. Bush could have easally called up bin Laden to order the 9/11 disaster like ordering a pizza. Then, Bush sits back and lets 3,000 people die and two buildings go down to make the excuse. Believe it or not, your choice.
Have some fun with Google about 9/11 oil and the like. There was a book put out by an European about just the conspiracy theory. It's a fun read. And, yes, Peak Oil is barely mentioned.
Some fun things:
The Bush family are a family of oilmen. They are PO - aware.
The Arabs are also PO - aware.
Our "intelligence" agencies are PO - aware. (think of the Soviet oil peak of 1988)
The Bush and bin Laden families are intertwined about oil.
Osama bin Laden was, after all, one of the CIA's employees. (he became a loose cannon!)
Put that all together and you can cook up an absolutely killer conspiracy theory! :)
Petrol prices high enough yet? Just wait!
Re increase in media coverage.
The present trend on the internet on peak oil seems to be down- whereas there is an slight upwards trend in the Blogsphere.
Google trends says:
http://www.google.com/trends?q=peak+oil&ctab=0&geo=all&date=all&sort=0
and Blogpulse says ( last 6 months:)
http://www.blogpulse.com/trend?query1=peak+oil&label1=peak+oil&query2=&l...
kind regards/And1
"Peak Oil" is not the only words searched on when people are trying to discover when oil peaks. "Oil Production" is the word I most often search on because I want to know who is up and who is down in oil production this month.
Oil Production gives an entirely different profile and in the Blogpulse, well over twice as many hits.
And there are many other words peak oilers search on. Just measuring the hits for "Peak Oil" does not give an accurate picture of things.
Ron Patterson