190 comments on DrumBeat: July 3, 2007
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190 comments on DrumBeat: July 3, 2007
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Does anyone have a PIW subscription? This article looks interesting:
Aramco's Manifa ITBs Delayed
I can kind of guess what it says, but I'm wondering if they gave any reason for the delay.
I would not read too much into this.
Quite possibly some engineering detail being worked out. It is unlikely that Saudi Aramco is short of funds (or the ability to borrow).
Mattthew Simmons agrees that there is oil in Manifa, it is not a problematic reservoir. Rather the oil itself is problematic (too much vanadium).
We are several years (2011 ?) from production, so a couple of months delay on the front end is, IMHO, no big deal.
Best hopes for a gentle downslope post-Peak Oil,
Alan
I'm not "reading too much into it." I'm curious about what the delay is, and how long it is, that's all. I'm not worried that Manifa is in terminal decline, I assure you.
What I do suspect is "Thunder Horse syndrome." It always takes longer than they think it will take. Which is why I mistrust the "bottom-up" estimates.
Manifa was scheduled to come on line in 2011 with 900,000 barrels per day. Its oil is heavy with vanadium and hydrogen sulphide, making it virtually unusable. Saudi is building two new refineries. No doubt one of them will be equipped to handle this heavy oil contiminated with vanadium and hydrogen sulphide.
So it would be my guess that there has been some delay in the refinery schedule and Saudi will not be able to handle the oil from Manifa by 2011.
But that is just a guess of course. I am sure there will be more news on this coming down the pike very soon giving us more details. Then again, perhaps they will keep the lid on this, knowing Saudis predilection for secrecy.
Ron Patterson
Ron,
I guess you saw the article about the Saudis looking into importing coal to meet domestic energy consumption. I think that they had to import fuel oil last August, in order to meed peak demand for electrical generation.
Is that going to Newcastle, S.A. ?
The first two stages are for dredging and then building a causeway out for the drilling platforms, so this is likely more related to those issues than dealing with the oil.
The vanadium could be very useful if extracted for vanadium redox batteries
You may well be right. I had dinner with the head of Saudi refining projects last week, and in a chat about China's refinery expansion plans, he blurted out that China's plans were highly improbable, "since we can't even get 400,000 b/d up and running in less than 4-5 years anymore". He wouldn't elaborate, but they have been impacted by the same escalation of costs, shortages, and other problems that are plaguing the industry around the world.
Comments from the horse's mouth, so to speak, are always interesting. Thanks.
"You can never solve a problem on the level on which it was created."
Albert Einstein
If the recent press releases we have seen from Saudi Arabia and OPEC are any indication they have decided that there will not be sufficient demand for oil in the future to justify the investment. :P