 | DrumBeat: July 10, 2007 | The Oil Drum | Back-to-the-Future Look at Oil Prices--Will Higher Prices Bring More Supplies? |  |
25 comments on Marchetti's Curves
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25 comments on Marchetti's Curves
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Very interesting post Luís! I always wanted to revisit Marchetti's forecast.
It is surprising to see that wood is still a significant energy source (as important as nuclear!) most probably for third world countries.
My interpretation is that as long as coal reserves are cheap and plentiful, it will remain an important source for electricity generation. There is also the myopic focus on expanding military nuclear program while ignoring the urgent local need for clean, affordable electricity (see Iran and India). A good example is India that was supposed to make the transition between coal and Nuclear based on an ambitious program launch by Nehru in the 50s. But it never happened, India is now generating a mere 4.5 MW instead of 44 GW has initially planned. Reality is, at market rate, nuclear is still 50-60% more expensive than coal.
India has some leading research on Nuclear, using Thorium as fuel and everything. It’s just that Oil was so cheap and easy…
Once again wood-fuel consumption is hard to access, especially in developing and third world countries; the statistics have changed broadly in latest years. I think Marchetti caught a signal of wood-fuel phase-out in the developed countries, I doubt the data he used included Africa for instance.
Marchetti has left us such a legacy on energy and systems analysis that it was a shame for TOD not to have a post dedicated to him and his work.