This is neat!

It looks to me like like this model would forecast 1 million barrels a year by 2025, or 2.7 million barrels per day. Assuming the model applies to crude and condensate, we are currently at about 5.2 million barrels per day. This would imply an annual decline rate of about 3% per year, which doesn't sound too unreasonable.

Note that In order to just maintain flat imports, our oil consumption has to decline at the same volumetric rate that our domestic production declines.

Hello Gail the Actuary,

Obviously, this is not directed at you personally, but I hope the following is illustrative:

Imagine everyone self-whittling away at their body at 3%/year Forever. Would you start off Year One by cutting off both ears + your pinky fingers + your pinky toes, or is it better to just start off by carving out your gall-bladder? What is the plan for Year Two--> one hand + one foot, or is it better to just whack off one hand + half a forearm, or lose a kidney? Year Three, Year Four, etc, as this unstoppable depletion process inexorably continues?

At what point does this whittling process make the loss of mobility and dexterity impossible for you to feed yourself? Or, would you choose to not whittle away at yourself, but instead, carve away large hunks of flesh with a machete' from your neighbor?

The numerous Societal Blowback newslinks, that we see all time here on TOD, can be expected to exponentially grow.

My hope is that Peakoil Outreach, combined with positive biosolar habitat ERoEI alternatives [PV,wind,tidal,etc], whatever they may ultimately prove to be, can be the new societal 'limbs + ribs + organs' for future generations.

A long ago posting of mine suggested: making it obviously clear to everyone the importance of the maximum #'s of other lifeforms making it through the Bottleneck Squeeze with us; a direct linkage of us to the Extinction Rate.

Briefly, for every 10% extinction rate greater than the normal and natural background extinction rate--> we All lop off a finger. As we start losing more digits: we quickly become highly incentivized to protect the remaining species. Alternatively, if we really start to fail at ecological mitigation: the final loss of our thumbs will bring us into true harmony with our severely-amputated environmental state.

Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

Kind of puts those gas price signs we've all seen - Regular $x.xx, MidGrade "Arm", Premium "Leg" -- in a different light!