The Oil Drum | Peak Lite Revisited

142 comments on Peak Lite Revisited

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OuttaControl on July 16, 2007 - 10:35am

It's been roughly 6 months since you made your $1000 bet and prices are roughly at the mid-point between the January forward-month price and $100. Would you make the same bet now?

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riconroy on July 16, 2007 - 2:07pm

Would you make the same bet now?

Robert, forgive me, I do enjoy your writing, and take into consideration almost everything you say.

But I still hope, come December 31, 2007, that you lose your bet.
- rick

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Robert Rapier on July 16, 2007 - 3:03pm

It's been roughly 6 months since you made your $1000 bet and prices are roughly at the mid-point between the January forward-month price and $100. Would you make the same bet now?

The bet was specifically front month WTI. That was $60 when we made the bet, and after the recent run-up is at $74 today. So, I am in pretty good shape, barring a series of unfortunate events. If oil headed toward $100, I think there would be a lot of profit taking by speculators that would dampen that rise.

Now, will I make the same bet for 2008? No. But would I bet another $1000 that oil still won't hit $100 this year? Yes.

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Gilgamesh on July 16, 2007 - 8:45pm

how are the speculators going to sell at a higher price? prices have been steadily climbing for the past 6 months with no hard supply disruptions.

without a price spike, oil will continue rising as supply falls, and it is falling oh so slowly (but soon to accelerate). may 2008 will be the death knell of suburbia and most of the USA caused by oil price explosion, and hyper-inflammatory expenses.

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Jaymax on July 17, 2007 - 4:41pm

The bet was specifically front month WTI.

I just had to check your profile page to make sure you wern't managing a refinery taking feedstock from Cushing or somesuch...

:-)

--
Jaymax

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142 comments on Peak Lite Revisited

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