Michael Chertoff's gut tells me the black line has already crossed over the red. The signs and symptoms are here...

Canaries in the Coal Mine
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2749#comment-209910

Thankfully, not rats in a drain ditch

"demand has been moderated as poor countries in Africa and Asia are increasingly unable to afford $70/bbl oil."

Demand isn't moderated. They are still demanding; they just can't afford to buy a commodity where the supply is less than demand.
Starving people can't afford food, but their bodies still demand it. But Michael Chertoff's gut has never rumbled from hunger before.

The Borborygmous Rat

According to my unsophisticated methodology there are 32 countries or areas in the world currently experiencing energy shortages. These have been reported in their local media within the last week. Most of these areas are in sub Saharan Africa but there are a few exceptions: Algeria, Argentina, and briefly Mexico which experienced some power failures to some 1200 business do to the gas line attack.

Interestingly, the price of energy is becoming a big issue in the South Pacific. Notably Saipan, Fiji, and PNG. I suspect local news media will report energy shortages soon. Pacific Island coverage has always been very very sparse, so the extent of energy issues might be grossly unreported.

Today was a bad day as Malawi was added to the list and Algeria returned with chronic gas shortages in Algiers. The Philippines, India, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Liberia, Bolivia, and Ecuador all had local news reports of energy issues within the past 12 hours.

WharfRat: "Thankfully, not rats in a drain ditch"

Definitely, but it does feel like a nine mile skid on a ten mile ride.

:>)

That is what makes "demand" an almost meaningless word in the PO debate. What people often mean is "how much can the world afford to buy at this price", not "how much do people want".

Demand will always be for more than is supplied when it comes to energy. If you take a years' supply of oil, distribute it, and then ask "who wants some more?" there will always be a few billion hands up. When you ask "who can afford some more", there will be a lot fewer.

The whole debate over supply vs demand is just an economics exercise. It gives little insight into the real number of people hurting for want of oil...

"You can never solve a problem on the level on which it was created."
Albert Einstein