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Most of you probably saw the Moscow Times article on Drumbeat yesterday about Russian oil production.
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/stories/2007/07/10/042-full.html
"Alfa Report Sees Trouble Looming in Oil Sector"
With this article, we now have problems reported or actual production declines in all of the areas of the world producing 3 million BPD or more.
• Russia - Forecast worsening outlook (9,247,000 barrels per day in 2006)
• Saudi Arabia - Declining Production (9,152,000)
• United States - Declining Production (5,136,000)
• Iran - Declining Production (4,028,000)
• China - Largest oil field peaked in 2006 (3,686,000)
• Mexico - Largest oil field peaked in 2006 (3,256,000)
• North Sea - Declining Production (4,343,000)
This would certainly strengthen the peak oil now or very soon argument.
This would certainly strengthen the peak oil now or very soon argument.
Hilarious deadpan.
I think.
or Edvard Munch's "The Scream" in a rearview mirror.
Objects in mirror are closer than they appear..
"Do you think he's gonna have that on the ride?"
- Ian Malcolm, Jurassic Park
No problem. We will run our transportation networks on oil reserves.
The doomers keep focusing on production. Be happy and focus on the huge worldwide reserves of oil.
Huge pools of oil inside the earth regenerating themselves every day.
Switching to CNG cars is growing rapidly as natural gas production was not supposed to peak for sometime.
In Peru they have 11 tcf of natural gas (EIA) and have been building an LNG plant for export. There are three CNG stations with ten more planned. They have both CNG and LPG cars.
Compressed natural gas did not require expensive refineries, reformulation additives, and was cheaper than gasoline. It had less carbon per molecule and burned clean. It did not require heavy bulky fuel cells. The natural gas was ligher than air and dissipated if disrupted by collision.
CNG and LPG may work in a few places in the world (Peru, Iran), but the supply beyond the next couple of years is questionable in places like the United States and Europe.
It seems like LNG will not help the world supply situation much because the amount of LNG available is going to be much less than the world will be demanding.
Consider Russia, Qatar, Bolivia, Australia, Malaysia, PPNG, Egypt, Oman, Algeria, Libya, Angola, Nigeria, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia to name a few more.
About 115000 Btu’s per gallon of gasoline--octane varies ($2.33 Nymex wholesale).
1 mcf of natural gas = 1020000 BTU's ($6-7 Nymex wholesale).
It appears like natural gas is currently about 4-5 times cheaper than gasoline in the U.S. in terms of BTU's per dollar.
In Germany retail gasoline was 2-3 times more expensive than in the United States.
It seems fuel switching in NG producers might reduce some of the oil panic.
Correction NG might be more than twice as cheap as gasoline
Note this fits the Westexas export substitution model.
1st oil (already) 2nd gas (starting now) 3rd coal (soon).
No problem.
Oh Really?
We will run our transportation networks on oil reserves.
And when the reserves are used?
Huge pools of oil inside the earth regenerating themselves every day.
How is that possible?
http://www.geo.vu.nl/%7Erondeel/grondstof/oil/oil-total-web.html#_Toc531...
You are a little light on data to back up your position. But go ahead, convince me. Convince others.
Don't worry Gunga, sarcasm is completely lost on some people.
Ron Patterson
On TOD, with our occasional cornucopian denyers, it's hard to say when when it's sarcasm and when it's delusion.
Unless of course, one knows the person throwing in the comment. That helps :)
That's why I always try to include a ;) or put [sarcasm] tags around my sarcasm. :)
~Durandal (http://www.wtdwtshtf.com/)
On TOD, with our occasional cornucopian denyers,
Tis best to ask these folks "why" when they show up.
Because if they are wrong, they might learn something while their answer is being addressed. Or all of us might learn something we didn't know.
Ummm... Eric...
I think he was peddling a bit of sarcanol there.
At least I sure hope so ;-)
A bit? How about gallons??
Or, rather, barrels...
One correction to the above listing. China's largest field peaked in 2003, and has been declining a few percent a year since.
China's total oil production for the first three months of 2007 is pretty similar to last years, but it is too soon to say that China's production has peaked.
So perhaps I should say that that six out of the seven largest production areas have production problems. We don't really know yet about China.