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409 comments on DrumBeat: July 11, 2007

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Gail the Actuary on July 11, 2007 - 9:05am Permalink | Subthread | Comments top

Most of you probably saw the Moscow Times article on Drumbeat yesterday about Russian oil production.

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/stories/2007/07/10/042-full.html

"Alfa Report Sees Trouble Looming in Oil Sector"

The dramatic worsening in its outlook was the result of the government's reluctance to consider lowering taxes on oil firms and a higher proportion of water in the declining output, the bank said in a research report.

With this article, we now have problems reported or actual production declines in all of the areas of the world producing 3 million BPD or more.

• Russia - Forecast worsening outlook (9,247,000 barrels per day in 2006)
• Saudi Arabia - Declining Production (9,152,000)
• United States - Declining Production (5,136,000)
• Iran - Declining Production (4,028,000)
• China - Largest oil field peaked in 2006 (3,686,000)
• Mexico - Largest oil field peaked in 2006 (3,256,000)

• North Sea - Declining Production (4,343,000)

This would certainly strengthen the peak oil now or very soon argument.

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b3NDZ3La on July 11, 2007 - 9:26am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

This would certainly strengthen the peak oil now or very soon argument.

Hilarious deadpan.

I think.

or Edvard Munch's "The Scream" in a rearview mirror.

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jokuhl on July 11, 2007 - 1:51pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Objects in mirror are closer than they appear..

"Do you think he's gonna have that on the ride?"
- Ian Malcolm, Jurassic Park

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Gunga2006 on July 11, 2007 - 9:13am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

No problem. We will run our transportation networks on oil reserves.
The doomers keep focusing on production. Be happy and focus on the huge worldwide reserves of oil.
Huge pools of oil inside the earth regenerating themselves every day.

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rainsong on July 11, 2007 - 9:25am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Switching to CNG cars is growing rapidly as natural gas production was not supposed to peak for sometime.

In Peru they have 11 tcf of natural gas (EIA) and have been building an LNG plant for export. There are three CNG stations with ten more planned. They have both CNG and LPG cars.

Compressed natural gas did not require expensive refineries, reformulation additives, and was cheaper than gasoline. It had less carbon per molecule and burned clean. It did not require heavy bulky fuel cells. The natural gas was ligher than air and dissipated if disrupted by collision.

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Gail the Actuary on July 11, 2007 - 10:10am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

CNG and LPG may work in a few places in the world (Peru, Iran), but the supply beyond the next couple of years is questionable in places like the United States and Europe.

It seems like LNG will not help the world supply situation much because the amount of LNG available is going to be much less than the world will be demanding.

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rainsong on July 11, 2007 - 11:49am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Consider Russia, Qatar, Bolivia, Australia, Malaysia, PPNG, Egypt, Oman, Algeria, Libya, Angola, Nigeria, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia to name a few more.

About 115000 Btu’s per gallon of gasoline--octane varies ($2.33 Nymex wholesale).

1 mcf of natural gas = 1020000 BTU's ($6-7 Nymex wholesale).

It appears like natural gas is currently about 4-5 times cheaper than gasoline in the U.S. in terms of BTU's per dollar.

In Germany retail gasoline was 2-3 times more expensive than in the United States.

It seems fuel switching in NG producers might reduce some of the oil panic.

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rainsong on July 11, 2007 - 11:51am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Correction NG might be more than twice as cheap as gasoline

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Boof on July 11, 2007 - 7:04pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Note this fits the Westexas export substitution model.
1st oil (already) 2nd gas (starting now) 3rd coal (soon).

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eric blair on July 11, 2007 - 11:34am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

No problem.

Oh Really?

We will run our transportation networks on oil reserves.

And when the reserves are used?

Huge pools of oil inside the earth regenerating themselves every day.

How is that possible?
http://www.geo.vu.nl/%7Erondeel/grondstof/oil/oil-total-web.html#_Toc531...

You are a little light on data to back up your position. But go ahead, convince me. Convince others.

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Darwinian on July 11, 2007 - 11:53am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Don't worry Gunga, sarcasm is completely lost on some people.

Ron Patterson

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SamuM on July 11, 2007 - 1:35pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

On TOD, with our occasional cornucopian denyers, it's hard to say when when it's sarcasm and when it's delusion.

Unless of course, one knows the person throwing in the comment. That helps :)

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Durandal on July 11, 2007 - 3:59pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

That's why I always try to include a ;) or put [sarcasm] tags around my sarcasm. :)
~Durandal (http://www.wtdwtshtf.com/)

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eric blair on July 11, 2007 - 5:49pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

On TOD, with our occasional cornucopian denyers,

Tis best to ask these folks "why" when they show up.

Because if they are wrong, they might learn something while their answer is being addressed. Or all of us might learn something we didn't know.

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sgage on July 11, 2007 - 11:56am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Ummm... Eric...

I think he was peddling a bit of sarcanol there.

At least I sure hope so ;-)

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b3NDZ3La on July 11, 2007 - 12:20pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

A bit? How about gallons??

Or, rather, barrels...

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Gail the Actuary on July 11, 2007 - 4:32pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

One correction to the above listing. China's largest field peaked in 2003, and has been declining a few percent a year since.

China's total oil production for the first three months of 2007 is pretty similar to last years, but it is too soon to say that China's production has peaked.

So perhaps I should say that that six out of the seven largest production areas have production problems. We don't really know yet about China.

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409 comments on DrumBeat: July 11, 2007

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