<DrumBeat: July 13, 2007The Oil DrumThe NPC Report...>

179 comments on Net Oil Exports and the "Iron Triangle"

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westexas on July 13, 2007 - 1:22pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Khebab,

Could you post your graph on Mexico's production, consumption and exports?

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Khebab on July 13, 2007 - 2:06pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top



I'm not sure it's a completely accurate picture because Mexico is also importing petroleum products (and growing) but I don't have time to redo this chart right now. Also, only consumption numbers for total products are available from which I roughly deducted a crude oil equivalent (by dividing volumes by 1.1). Consequently, this chart has to be taken with a grain of salt.

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Joseph Palmer on July 13, 2007 - 3:22pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I'm just eyeballing it, but it's interesting to note that although the predicted exports go from 2mbpd to 1 mbpd from 2004 to ~2011, the rise in the price of oil to date keeps the export income relativity healthy.

I wonder what the 'income' lines would look like. Pretty ugly as you go from an exporter to an importer (If you can afford to import at all.)

It'd be interesting to see a few predictions of oil income, based on a range of price targets for 2020 (Say $75 to $300)

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Khebab on July 13, 2007 - 9:36pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top



Production peaked in 2004 but profit may have peaked in 2006 because so far prices in 2007 are not higher than in 2006. Problem is that Mexico's importation of oil products is growing rapidly so they reach a negative trade balance sooner than we think (2010?).

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memmel on July 13, 2007 - 11:17pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

This is the important graph. I think if you did this with KSA you will see that their investment in Petrochemicals is going to pay off even as crude oil exports decrease. Iran I don't think so. Norway I don't know. Some of the other Persian gulf countries are also investing heavily in petrochemicals.

The ones without significant petrochemical investments and significant imports are going to be the ones having problems.
Venezuela ??

Where did you find this info btw ?

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Nick on July 13, 2007 - 7:02pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Take quarterly data for Mexican oil consumption (all products) from here: http://omrpublic.iea.org/omrarchive/12june07tab.pdf page 3 Here's the data):
1Q05 2.04
2Q05 2.11
3Q05 2.06
4Q05 2.10
1Q06 2.08
2Q06 2.02
3Q06 1.99
4Q06 2.03
1Q07 2.08
2Q07 2.05

and do a linear regression. The result: a decline of 4,000 barrels per quarter, with an r squared of .104 (which is pretty low).

So, we don't see rising consumption. Are the IEA's projections wrong again?

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westexas on July 13, 2007 - 7:16pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

As I noted down the way, the top 10 net oil exporters, inclusive of Mexico, showed an annual rate of increase in consumption, in aggregate, of 3.3% per year, from 2000 to 2006. Just the increase in consumption by the top 10 from 2000 to 2006 is equal to all of Nigeria's net exports in 2006.

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Nick on July 13, 2007 - 10:16pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Ok. Does my data and analysis look ok to you?

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