<DrumBeat: July 13, 2007 The Oil Drum The NPC Report...>

179 comments on Net Oil Exports and the "Iron Triangle"

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Nick on July 13, 2007 - 7:02pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Take quarterly data for Mexican oil consumption (all products) from here: http://omrpublic.iea.org/omrarchive/12june07tab.pdf page 3 Here's the data):
1Q05 2.04
2Q05 2.11
3Q05 2.06
4Q05 2.10
1Q06 2.08
2Q06 2.02
3Q06 1.99
4Q06 2.03
1Q07 2.08
2Q07 2.05

and do a linear regression. The result: a decline of 4,000 barrels per quarter, with an r squared of .104 (which is pretty low).

So, we don't see rising consumption. Are the IEA's projections wrong again?

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westexas on July 13, 2007 - 7:16pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

As I noted down the way, the top 10 net oil exporters, inclusive of Mexico, showed an annual rate of increase in consumption, in aggregate, of 3.3% per year, from 2000 to 2006. Just the increase in consumption by the top 10 from 2000 to 2006 is equal to all of Nigeria's net exports in 2006.

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Nick on July 13, 2007 - 10:16pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Ok. Does my data and analysis look ok to you?

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179 comments on Net Oil Exports and the "Iron Triangle"

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