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From the Reuters article:
A Golden Oldie From Daniel Yergin, circa 11/04
Digital Rules
Capitalism's Amazing Resilience
Rich Karlgaard, 11.01.04, 12:00 AM ET
Excerpt:
On June 28, 2007, I noted that CNBC was reporting that Yergin had predicted that oil prices would be back down to $60 next year. I suggested that this was a strong buy signal for oil. Brent spot closed a few cents short of $80 today, up 11% in two weeks.
Future news story?
BTW, today is the one year anniversary of "Daniel Yergin Day"
http://www.energybulletin.net/18111.html
WT,
You know Yergin knows better than this. This is a deliberate conspiracy to convince the world that it doesn't need to worry about oil depletion.
After it happens and the world is in economic chaos, they'll say it's Russia or Venezuela's fault for not developing more infrastructure.
To what end? What is the purpose of the conspiracy? What are its goals? Who benefits? We seem to throw that word around at every dissenter and government organization under the sun.
If you know its a deliberate conspiracy, then I am deliberately challenging you to explain all of this.
I don't know about conspiracy but the oil companies stand to benefit from reducing the clamour for alternatives. They might well believe that peak is quite some time away but, if they do have that belief, then it most certainly is in their interests to try to convince government that no further investment in alternatives is needed.
Of course, they are also human and, perhaps more than other deniers, have a life that is completely dependent on oil, to a degree that the need to deny a problem is paramount in their minds.
I would not expect an impartial study from oil men. Conspiracy may be too strong a word, however.
I agree conspiracy is probably too strong in general. I think you have two phenomena taking place first these people generally think alike or similar. One reason they are in the positions they are in. I've often found that CEO/Presidents/VP's could almost be clones of each other in my business area. Next the world at the top in any business area is not large its not a huge group of people and the all know and generally associate with each other. The web of personal contact leads to direct dialog on certain issues. This is not a conspiracy simply normal operation of the "good old boy network".
Give the above conditions conspiracy is possible and seen routinely on Wall Street with various trading scandals but its not needed. If you consider the mainstream stance a hidden conspiracy is not needed.
HOWEVER..
I'm increasingly convinced that the US Government at the highest levels is peak oil aware and has developed extensive plans to deal with peak oil. In some cases the seem to be going awry.
For example we don't see President Bush urging his buddies the Saudi's to produce more oil in fact the have been silent on the matter since 2006. Silence can speak louder than words. So at least for me their is no doubt in my mind that the highest echelons of the governments are very peak oil aware and not happy with what the know. The fact they have chosen to keep this information secret is disturbing. I think that the did not figure out WT ELM model and I suspect the current situation may be a surprise.
Hopefully once peak oil becomes obvious we will find out exactly what was known and when. Maybe if we get a change to Democrats we will see a witch hunt that will uncover some facts. But if we are right then you know that the CIA knows in even better detail the state of the worlds oil supply so this means Bush knows so either we are wrong or he is keeping the real situation secret for some reason probably just to allow the iron triangle to extract the last few bucks out of the masses. We seem to see every indication that the plan is to rev the economy till it explodes.
HOWEVER..
I'm increasingly convinced that the US Government at the highest levels is peak oil aware and has developed extensive plans to deal with peak oil. In some cases the seem to be going awry.
Look at the bottom of page 2 (of 4pages). Notice that the section Energy Security is completely blanked out.
http://www.corbettreport.com/cache/spp.pdf
Did you know about this meeting?
No conspiracy, just no reporting of the obvious.
A Peek Behind Closed Doors
http://www.corbettreport.com/articles/20070709_spp_meeting_minutes.htm
Things are being planned, populations are not being told. Major changes are being put into place. They have a good idea of what's coming and these links are just a few of the planning going on right now on many many different fronts.
No conspiracy. Just news blackout of meeting procedings and results.
The future is already here, it's just not uniformly distributed yet
I don't think that it is a conspiracy per se.
I think that the auto, home and finance guys are focused on selling and financing the next auto and home.
I think that the media guys want to keep selling advertising to the auto/home/finance group.
The oil industry leg of the Iron Triangle is more complex, probably with motives ranging from they actually believe in the Oil Easter Bunny, to fears of punitive taxation and military takeovers (of oil exporters) to a deliberate effort to encourage consumption, discourage conservation and alternative energy and EOT plans.
Basically, the various members of the Iron Triangle seem to think that is a swell idea for Americans to continue to go into debt in order to increase their overall consumption, in effect asserting that an infinite rate of increase in the consumption of a finite energy resource base is no problemo.
WT,
You do realize that the traditional use of the term "Iron Triangle" is to describe the military-industrial complex, don't you?
It's a term that's been around forever.
Personally, I believe CERA is a card-carrying member of the military-industrial complex and is being used to keep peak-oil denial in place for as long as possible so that as much wealth can be extracted as possible from consumer society before the big crack-up.
I think Yergin and CERA have been promised a suite of offices right below Halliburton in the Dubai Tower for their help in creating the neocons' new world order.
I've been reading Yergin since 1978. His attacks on peak oil seem way overboard to me.
On Google, my version of the "Iron Triangle" appears to be at #5, and I never claimed to have originated the term.
And your aware that the military industrial complex is especially sensitive to peak oil. They might need for example to go invade the country with large remaining oil reserves to ensure their continued existence.
Right, memmel,
I really think the military-industrial complex sees this a make or break for their survival. I'm sure they read WT's export model with great alarm.
Probably this era of American history will go down as the time that instead of using the nation's wealth to build an alternative-energy future, it was all spent to try to keep the M-I Complex going a few more years.
I just wonder whether that whole crew will just relocate to the Persian Gulf and cut off North America if all this starts to get dicey ... I suppose that's what I'd do.