37 comments on British MP interviews David Strahan, author "The Last Oil Shock"
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GAIA Host Collective
Careful Roger, you are starting to sound a might bit doomerish.
Repeat after me: PV will save us... PV will save us...
:-)
Rethin,
You are right, I did sound a bit doomerish on that one, but as you guys like to say, we have to face facts even when they are unpleasant.
The logic of some people astound me, I will admit it. I have friends in the investment community. I know one who considers the idea of installing PV a waste of money...the return isn't there, etc, etc., but he recently bought enough Blackstone Group stock to put full PV on 2 houses! I don't know if PV will "save us", but there was no complaint about whether it would work or not (helll, you get a 20 year warrenty on it now), just that it "wasn't worth it". I hear that all the time by financial people.
I don't think that undercuts my view that alternatives are available and will work technically, but the doomers are correct when they say you cannot force people away from stupidity. I know people who are buying large new cars and SUV's right now....with 6 year payment plans. They have to assume the fuel is just going to get here, one way or the other for 6 more years (that's 2012 before this crate would be paid for) Of course, the money isn't the issue, even if crude oil goes to $100 a barrel, the depreciation and interest payed for the car will cost far more than the fuel by far. (someone said oil may go to $100 plus per barrel, and I asked, would anybody but us energy fanatics even notice?) The economics does not make sense if we are actually facing peak. That does not mean we are not facing it, but economics, the drivng engines of Western culture will NOT provide any warning.
Doomerish? Maybe....such is life.
Roger Conner Jr.
Remember, we are only one cubic mile from freedom
(If freedom is what we actually want)
Except that if the peak is past, oil won't cost $100 in 12 years. It will cost just enough for people like this not afford it.
Economics keep making sense. It just people that have to learn it (and convince themselves that things change on a rupture situation).
[Read it last month: good book go get it!]
Insanity: I live in a 120 flat apartment block in London and there is currently a study underway to replace the communal boiler with individual ones run on gas...
Thing is we could certainly put solar on the roof to supplement the coming high gas prices but as single units we are stuffed. Can you think of a more stupid thing to do -my point is that people are totally unaware of this issue -maybe 1 in 100.
If this goes ahead then "That's it I'm Outta there!"
Nick.
That's a really interesting decision making process. Many stakeholders and an incomplete situation awareness. What is the justification for the change? Is the existing (gas?) boiler at end of life? Is heat currently a public (within the building), non-rival good leading to inefficiencies? "Privatisation" is expected to lead to increased efficiency?
It might be worth designing a flyer detailing the situation with UK gas, our coming reliance on imports etc., questioning the wisdom of major gas investment.
With a large building like that a large common boiler sounds like a good idea - could it be replaced with a single combined heat and power boiler? With many users, load would be smoother than single residences.
Hi Chris -the decision to go from the water and space heating communal boiler to individual ones for water/heat is being driven mainly by the high price of replacing all the communal pipework from the boiler to the individual flats...
And I have already made a flyer! I'm serious about this -if they go ahead with this I will sell up as I don't see a future here. Of course I will try and get 120 new TOD readers first!
Nick.
It's not necessarily the case that individual units are less efficient:
- modern condensing combi boilers are 90% efficient in their conversion of gas to energy (+90-92%)
- because they are 'on demand' there is no large waste of hotwater tanks, heating water to basically let that heat go away, and the total system capacity can be lower (because it doesn't have to cope with 120 people drawing a bath at 9pm, which the other system will do, even if it never happens)
Also you don't lose heat pumping hot water through pipes through the whole building, that loses that energy.
I can also add that central building heat is *very* bad for encouraging cockroaches, who love to move along the warm pipes between flats. It's cold barriers between flats that prevent them doing that.
I've said a few times that with Europe's large fuel taxes we wouldn't even notice $100 barrel oil.
The demand destruction will come from America first. Large engines plus volatile fuel prices (in % swing terms) mean large exposure...
Andy
No that's incorrect:
1. transport fuel *used for trucks and cars but not planes* is highly taxed in Europe. Aviation would be hit hard by a 1/3rd rise in fuel costs.
2. some kinds of fuel (farmers, possibly trains) are tax reduced or exempt. Again the proportionate impact would be large.
3. non transport uses for oil would be hit (chemicals, fertilisers, electric power generation, lubricants etc.)
4. generally energy prices move with oil prices-- gas and coal as well. What happens is industrial consumers (who are often dual fuel) switch to gas, driving up demand for gas, and hence prices
5. oil is used for home heating purposes in a number of places in Europe
So the impact on Europe of $100/bl would be significant on the economy.