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13 comments on The Round-Up: July 17th 2007

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musashi on July 18, 2007 - 1:59pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I wish you were right. If you are not we change plans. :-)

I have no scientific training but I have well developed knack for watching people and reading tea leaves.
I would expect the market to suffer massive losses sometime soon, and as always they will halt trading to allow the well connected to mitigate losses. This should bring a very temporary parallel collapse of commodities.

Then it's off to the races.

If they manufacture another 9/11 in order to attack Iran it will just happen faster.
Hey!!!, the economic collapse is the fault of the "tererists".

All we can do is sit in the recliner by the side of the river and watch the bodies of our enemies float by.

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Stoneleigh on July 18, 2007 - 2:17pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I would expect the market to suffer massive losses sometime soon, and as always they will halt trading to allow the well connected to mitigate losses. This should bring a very temporary parallel collapse of commodities.

I would expect halts to trading simply becase the electronic exchanges will be overwhelmed with sell orders. That happened on a small scale in February, when the DJIA fell over 500 points in a short space of time. It also happened in 1929. If we have a real rush for the exits then there's no way orderly trading can proceed. It doesn't require a conspiracy of the wealthy for trading to be disrupted.

For that reason I wouldn't recommend trying to be clever and shorting into the teeth of a crash. Trading gaps and counterparty risk could make that a very risky strategy, even if you're right about the direction and the timing of a move. Better to cash out early and sit on the sidelines.

I am expecting a parallel commodity crash - indeed a crash of all asset prices across the board relative to cash, but as you say, I would expect any resulting glut of essential commodities to be temporary.

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musashi on July 18, 2007 - 2:57pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Better to cash out early and sit on the sidelines.

No worries. Hard assets in hand or nothing, I can spit a cherry stone a lot further then I trust these guys.
The only problem is that very liquid positions slowly erode, but the real game will start soon enough. Sort of like the cost of doing business.

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musashi on July 19, 2007 - 4:50pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

What would your view on this be?

"I just happened across [snip]

Still, thanks to the Fed report, looks like securitized real estate loans are $1,252.1 trillion and MBO's they track are $924.6 worth of MBO's.

Here
http://www.urbansurvival.com/week.htm

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