<National Petroleum Council Report Based on API Call and Report ReviewThe Oil DrumDrumBeat: July 22, 2007>

165 comments on The National Petroleum Council Report

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PeakTO on July 18, 2007 - 1:37pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

WT,

I wonder if maybe some of the VLCC rate drop isn't because there is a glut of tankers - not only from reduced deliveries - but also from excess new tankers.

Many new tankers have been planned for years, based on growing demand and Yerginism. Some new tankers must have been delivered this year, but only to find that there is less deliveries of oil taking place even for last years fleet.

So the problem is amplified...hence the 50% rate drop.

Plausible. That means that 2008 may be interesting for shipbuilding as well...defaults on delivery, cancelled contracts...etc.

2008 really shaping up to be turning point in many ways.

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memmel on July 18, 2007 - 1:45pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I've read a few times that we are in the middle of phasing out single hull tankers for all double hull not sure what the status is of this. But in the interim you would have a tanker glut.

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PeakTO on July 18, 2007 - 1:48pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

But those would have been scheduled replacements, and then there is NEW capacity.

If they accelerate the replacement/retire of older fleet with NEW capacity, still leaves deliveries of tankers on the books that are not needed...so will still lead to a crunch in shipbuilding in the near future.

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