Gail,

Nice writeup. I skimmed the NPC report last night and I agree that it is quite jarring in several places, as opined by ThatsItImOut on another thread. The NPC seems to be moving slowly in acknowledging the scope of the problem, but there is a clear sense of urgency in terms of the actions they are recommending.

PG,

I'm sorry this is off topic, but I don't know where else to put it. I have never done reddit, digg it, etc. on any of these articles and I have no intention of doing so. This brings up the question of why you are asking us to do this. You seem to very interested in the growth of this web site, and I'm trying to understand why. Part of the Oil Drum mission is

... we are here to raise awareness of the reality of the current problem and to attempt to address the real issues that are often hidden by political pandering.

From the "raise awareness" part of this sentence, I assume your goal may be to reach as large a target audience as possible. I question whether this is possible or even desirable. I don't think this is ever going to be a general interest web site, nor do I think it should strive to be. I would suggest that a good goal would be to try to reach a key audience in government, industry, academia, think tanks, mainstream media, and so forth, rather than the average person wondering why gasoline is so expensive. You may or may not agree with this, but if you do, you ought to be far more concerned with exactly who is visiting your web site than with your total number of visitors.

Again, sorry for an off-topic post. Perhaps deleting it or moving it elsewhere would be best so it doesn't dilute Gail's thread.

Calorie,

I am a member of the general interest public. Normally I don't "dilute the thread" like you are worried about, but this time I needed to comment. My apologies to those who get irritated by tangential comments.

Honestly I don't understand everything on this site, I'm a swimming teacher not a geo-physicist. BUT I have a stake in this peak-oil issue as much as anyone else. I heat my home, drive my car, and benefit from petrochemicals in many other ways. The more educated I become, and the rest of the masses, about one of the key issues facing civilization this century the more prepared I am to make decisions. For example I could pressure my senator or congressman, or decide to bike to work.

Being elitist just creates barriers, and if you're interested in finding solutions and planning for the future barriers won't help. Give the ordinary guy some credit, some day you might want the general public to understand the issues. Ignorant people might be annoying, but the people who have knowledge should be open to sharing it.

I'm a swimming teacher not a geo-physicist. ... some day you might want the general public to understand the issues.

Some of us want that day to be today.

So you're a swim coach.
Let's assume you teach teenagers.
One day, out of the goodness of your heart, you lend your car to one of your adolescent charges.

He calls you from his cell phone.
"Look coach, things may get a little bumpy going forward, but trust me, the fundamentals are still all here."

"Whada ya mean fundamentals? Is my car still with you?"
"Yes coach it's still all here right under my watchful eye. Relax."

"So why are you calling?"
"I just wanted to give you an update on our inventory situation. The inventory is all here and we plan to move it forward on schedule, albeit the schedule may experience some above ground contingencies and undulations."

Now given that he is sub 25 years old and you are a "teacher", you already know he is snowing you and in truth your car is toast.

But what if he wasn't a teen angel? What if he was an "energy expert" like say Mr. Daniel Yergin and he was assuring you the "fundamentals" are all there? What if he was Mr. Steve Forbes of Forbes magazine and he was assuring you oil will go down to $35 before it ever rises above $45 and all those Peak Oil people are kooks?

In simple English, it is the oil magnates who are giving you a snow job and it is the people here who are trying to draw out the real numbers from out of the swamp of disinformation.

Now getting clean numbers is tough because there is a lot of muck and uncertainty out there. But here are some fundamentals: 1) Mankind has not found any new major/giant oil fields in the last 40 years. All oil fields die, some more slowly than others. The big oil field in Mexico is dying. Texas started dying back in 1972 and is still on its long slow slide down into the abyss. "Technology" hasn't come through to save any of the oil fields. "Government" hasn't come through. Are you understanding which way the waves are moving in our global swimming pool? The big splash is in the Iraq corner because that is one of the last remaining backups. After that, there is mostly a bunch of fake swimmers pretending to do the crawl through hot air.

Steve Forbes of Forbes magazine and he was assuring you oil will go down to $35 before it ever rises above $45 and all those Peak Oil people are kooks

Did he really say that?

Yep, he sure did. When the Marxists invented the term bloated plutocrat, they must have been thinking about Steve Forbes.

He's as dumb as Bush. He just inherited the magazine.
Bob Ebersole

Did he really say that?

Nate, good point.
Trust, but verify.
Here you go buddy:
1. Peak Oil Forum 2002
2. Pickens v. Forbes 2007
3. Recollections of a Wall Street Examiner
4. Do your own search

--Have a Good Steve Hunting Trip!

My point was digg it or reddit can only help increase the chances that the average person will see this site and that I think that is a good thing.

SynchroGENized:

Welcome to The Oil Drum ! I'm very glad that you decided to join us, and hope that you come away with a good feeling about our forum.

Gail The Actuary, who is the author of the keypost at the top of this thread, has written some clear, easy to understand materials-try looking back to early this week and you'll find some excellent material she's writing to serve as a primmer about peak oil. If you have questions about any of the technical stuff on this blog, please ask them. I think you'll find most of the folks who hang out here are knowlegable and happy to explain jargon and provide information.

The whole concept of peak oil is pretty simple. There's a limited amount of oil on the planet-most of the people here think its around 2 trillion barrels. We've used about half of the conventional crude, and we think that production will soon be going down because of geological restraints.We used the cheap, easy to produce oil first because it was the most profitable. Meanwhile, world population and consumption are growing exponentially-There were 2 billion people here in 1950, 6.5 billion now and estimated 9 billion in 2030. And they all want a car and a new house.

So in the future oil is going to cost a whole lot more, and there will be shortages with horrible consequences unless we conserve and switch to alternative fuels.

The whole concept of peak oil is pretty simple.

It's simple and it's complicated.

When The Oil Drum (TOD) launched a couple of years ago, the chief editors used to give us amateurs tutorials about the oil industry: What is oil? How does it form? How do you find it (discovery)? How do you drill down to actually get it (boring)? etc., etc.

Many of us have read those tutorials.
We take it as a given that everybody else has also.
My recommendation to you is to first learn how to answer the above basic questions before making up your own mind about the Peak Oil theory.

I'm wondering if anyone kept bookmarks on some of the really old TOD tutorials?

At the top of the main page is a table with various TOD links. In the lower right corner, find this one:
Tech Talk

It goes to a page linking all, or many, of the industry tutorials which have appeared on these pages.

The problem will solve itself.
But not in a nice way.

Step Back,

Excellent point! I was also a very early visitor and poster at TOD. I clearly remember asking questions about production, reservoirs, and the like, expecting one of the resident oil experts to provide the answer. Often there were multiple answers and discussion about what the real numbers were and how to assess the validity of the sources. It was a wonderful learning experience for me (and I think others) that has now been relegated to premises - no longer needing discussion.

For me it was the process of verifying the premises that convinced me of the problem facing us. I always read TOD and other sources from the perspective of how all this application of money, technology, war intervention and the like will change the premise 'that the ability to deliver more oil in the future on a daily basis is no longer possible'. That is my testable hypothesis. I am looking for someone or some data to prove it incorrect.

The issue, for me now, is that contained within this simple premise is a very large background of information about things like permeability of rock, the price of drill steel, extraction rate vs oil in place, refining capacity of light sweet vs heavy sour, and a myriad of other tidbits that are required to convert a hydrocarbon deposit in the ground to gasoline in the tank. Without understanding these details it would be easy to convince me that more oil could be produced.

I suggest all new people to the Peak oil issue visiting TOD spend significant time researching these gritty details. They are all stored somewhere on TOD if you can just ferret out the threads. IMHO, TOD is the best place to find the technical answers presented in layman's terms.

NC,

One of the "Peak Oil Primers" (by Wolf-at-the-Door) has a Jargon page that may be useful to newcomers:

http://wolf.readinglitho.co.uk/mainpages/jargon.html

Calorie

I work in the federal government, although not at Energy or Interior -- do I qualify? or not?

I don't know how to adequately describe a contango or a backwardation, let alone explain the impact of geological structures on the development of oil and our ability to extract it. However, I am smart enough to understand that the oil companies are not the de facto spawn of Satan, and that the prices we are seeing at the pump are occurring due to economic, and perhaps geological, reasons that defy feel-good responses like suing the pants off of OPEC for price increases.

I have spent the past 37 weeks of my membership trying to promote an understanding of the peak oil issue, with varying success and using TOD as my primary source for information. It has been extremely helpful and many of the articles that Leanan posts are not aimed at technicians, which means that I and my peers will understand what is being discussed.

Please don't assume that the general public cannot be educated and cannot get an understanding of the issue. If that were true I suspect Portland Oregon would not have shared its report on the risks of Peak Oil and invited comment. Evidently they have more faith in the general public than you. Try to give the rest of us credit for using our heads for something more than a hat rack.

synchroGENized and Kheris,

Thank you for your comments. If I may ask, how did you discover this web site? Did it come to you or did you come to it? If you found it via one of the referral sites like reddit or digg then I stand corrected. If you came to it through a search engine or another energy blog such as WSJ's energy roundup or R-Squared, then I would argue that my point stands. My guess, and I could be wrong, is that trying to generate traffic by getting high rankings on the referral sites is not going to be very effective. A far better strategy, in my opinion, is to get noticed, referenced, and summarized by the major media outlets with strong online presence. One of the best things that has happened to this site was to get listed by WSJ's energy roundup.

One more thing. When I mentioned that the target audience for this site is probably not "the average person wondering why gasoline is so expensive," I didn't mean to imply that the average person is not smart enough to understand this stuff. I meant that the contributors, as far as I know, are not trained journalists and are probably not going to do as good a job communicating their message as trained journalists. The articles here are both too long and too technical. To get this material into the "general interest" arena, I think the site needs to attract top quality writers who are good at sourcing highly complex material and presenting it in a concise, easy-to-understand format.

Calorie,

I'll second that.

A lot of readers here at TOD are scientists, engineers, computer wizards, etc.

It doesn't blow them away when someone posts a chemical formula

CH3-CH2-CH2-CH2-CH2-CH2-CH2-CH2-CH2-CH2-CH2-CH3

or a math equation

y= A*e^-(kt)

But think about your average swim coach.
This stuff may sound like a lot of hooey.
Maybe we need a TOD-Lite site?

Not really. They can just jump in and sink or swim :^)

Just point 'em to the Tech Talk link on the main page and give 'em the laws of thermodynamics:

  • You can't win;
  • You can't break even;
  • And you can't get out of the game.

That, and children are much faster learners than adults ...

Thanks DIYer. Those Tech Talks in the early days of TOD were really educational. Note how few comments there were back in '05.

I read Kunstler's book The Long Emergency, that's what got me started. I do believe he mentioned TOD.

Calorie wrote:

From the "raise awareness" part of this sentence, I assume your goal may be to reach as large a target audience as possible. I question whether this is possible or even desirable. I don't think this is ever going to be a general interest web site, nor do I think it should strive to be. I would suggest that a good goal would be to try to reach a key audience in government, industry, academia, think tanks, mainstream media, and so forth, rather than the average person wondering why gasoline is so expensive. You may or may not agree with this, but if you do, you ought to be far more concerned with exactly who is visiting your web site than with your total number of visitors.

Been thinking a LOT about this.

I disagree with you that this isn't a general interest website, in that, we are doing what we are going for the general interest.

I am an educator, it's what I do. As I have said a few times of late, I consider TOD a seminar beyond all seminars. Ideas are freely exchanged, materials are offered, time is given.

The blogosphere is a public endeavor in that regard, I can't (and don't want to) restrict who comes here and who doesn't. I can restrict who posts if needed, but I don't even want to do that.

It takes a lot just to be able to understand what TOD is trying to do. It takes investment, critical thought, but it also takes an integrative acumen that not very many people have. We're trying to help make that happen.

It takes investment, critical thought, but it also takes an integrative acumen that not very many people have.

If I were the swim teacher, I might take that as, Hey I think the "professor" is trying to make fun of me just because I didn't excel at advanced physics or 3rd year calculus. I'd like to see how "smart" he is 10 feet under with CO2 building up in his lungs.

Most people aren't "dumb". They simply model the world in a different way than you and I do.

For example, some people ask themselves, "Whom should I trust and how do I determine if someone is trustable?"

Why do you think CNN news bills themselves as the "most trustable" source of information?

Some people like to think of themselves as the in-charge customer and all the world as being there to service them. We report, YOU decide (fox news).

Many different people, many different internal models.