136 comments on An Extension of the World Import/Export Land Model
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136 comments on An Extension of the World Import/Export Land Model
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GAIA Host Collective
The problem with such apocalyps porn is that it removes attention from serious civil defence for handling reasonable disaster scenarios.
Right.
Because with 20,000 nuclear weapons floating around in an international environment in whichl the critical life support, energy, and trade systems are failing it isn't reasonable to be concerned about nuclear war.
Now, now ... let's not turn TOD into a disasterbation page
This is hysterically funny. When people bring up completely unrealistic schemes such as ethanol, there is always someone like yourself to jump up to defend them and "discuss" them in excruciating detail. But when someone brings up real world facts coupled with opinions about potential conflicts in geopolitics (opinions shared by notables such as Henry Kissinger even about Sino-US competition and West-vs-Islam confrontation), the pro-technology crowd resorts to ad hominems, citing "doomer porn" or "disasterbation" in an attempt to discredit those discussing such dangerous situations. You and your pro-technology "tribe" automatically close ranks and attack those whose opinions dissents without ever actually entering into a rational discussion of these things.
So there is NEVER any open discussion of potential disaster scenarios here. They are always dismissed, out of hand, without regard to historical facts, without regard to human psychology. This absurd whistling-past-the-graveyard behavior is very notable to someone actually looking at the psychology of this site. And you are not the only one doing it either. This goes back to my earlier statements that TOD has deliberately chosen to be wholly closed to any solution except a happy ending to peak oil. Even Don Sailorman talking about a recession gets harsh emotional reactions here, let alone anything worse.
You and your tribe may (note that I didn't say will, just may) be the most harshly surprised of all those reading here though. Let's all pray that your hopes and dreams come true, that there will be no use of 20,000 nuclear warheads, that Hansen is wrong about climate change, that peak oil will be a long slow gentle decline with no loss of exports from the exporting nations, and that the "free market" (ha!) will leap into action and produce miraculous results for you and everyone else in every single looming problem area. Because if all those things do not turn out as you wish, then people like Savinar may have turned out to be optimists. And even if those things do happen, you are probably ignorant of the larger problematic trends in the entire system anyway.
Hell, even when someone does purely statistical analysis of the current situation, such as Stuart or Ace, there is great wailing and gnashing of teeth whenever the numbers indicate something worse than "acceptable". This is why the knee jerk reactions to the export land model, because it highlights extreme rapid change, change that you and your tribe refuse to accept and probably will continue to refuse to accept even if it actually happens, instead invoking your "gods" and wondering if you had just said the right incantations or the right prayers (made the right investments in technology) that things would have turned out ok.
But don't let me stop your irrational bashing of "doomer porn". No, go right ahead! We wouldn't want to even potentially admit to anything except our predicted happy ending, right?
"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." -- Dr. Albert Bartlett
Into the Grey Zone
Yeah, but it is the purpose of this site to discuss the technicalities of things. We are not know-it-alls, and people may have big doubts. Perhaps someone remembers a killer fact, like "ethanol has very low EROEI and it will consume away food otherwise eaten". And then people discuss the veracity of it. That's reasonable. Rational.
But then a doomtard just comes and says. "We are fukin doomed, this just signals the bombers green light to nuke us all, see those russian bombers? See them? See them? Told ya! Told ya!". It's like listening to Bill O'Reilly, but backwards. Totally irrational. Come on! We could discuss if the bombings could be a choice, but how on Earth could we discuss it? Doesn't everyone understand that a nuclear war is a always LOST war, like, FOR FOREVER? Yeah, we could ramble about the stupidity of mankind, like Einstein did, but what's the point?
And mostly, I believe you can bring it here, for no one will censor you. So what are you rambling about? Problem is, I disagree of instilling desperation. People that instill it are, curiously, not that very desperate at all. I find that these kind of people are just so into their character that they've learned to appreciate the "power" that they believe their words cast like if they are some kind of prophets. They even believe that they are prophets. Their style of writing is also very similar, prophetic, evangelistical, the "all of your sins will be awashed in pain and sorrow" type, the Apocalypse Now. It's oh so christian-nuttie-like that even they don't realise the dumbiness of it. Been There, Done That A Couple Thousand Years Ago, Thank You, Don't Come Back. It's comparable to the idiots of "left behind", but rather than established in a faith-fact, somewhat "based" on science-facts. But the attitude is exactly the SAME.
Where are those knee-jerk reactions? This model is way scarier than the normal simplistic Peak Oil model, and it sounds pretty solid as such. I hope it turns out wrong, but I don't see how. So, yes, things will come out ugly. But to leap-frog and start a nuclear war about it is to deny history. 1973 was way farther of a nuclear war than 1961, which had nothing to do with oil. I Knee jerk react to these kinds of doom-it-all fuck-it-all "prophecies" which are nothing but a projection of our inner id desires to just smash up all the rest of the world.
Happy ending? Every time one comes here with a smug smile and "we'll work it out" attitude, one's completely bashed. Be real!
And calm yourself.
duck and cover ?