Urbanization will allow the USA to get by with a lot less oil consumption. Living in an urban centre, you can still use a car as your main mode of transport, but instead of driving 15000 miles a year you are driving 6000 miles a year. Double the fuel efficiency and that is down to an effective 3000 miles per year (20% of current). There is no logical reason why this transition alone necessitates economic collapse- a far bigger problem for the USA at the median is globalization (China and India).
I think we use different ideas of 'urbanization' - I can't imagine a typical urban dweller needing to drive a personal vehicle an 'effective' 3000 miles per year.
As a guess, you don't have much experience of cities where owning a car is often considered a liability, like NYC or Amsterdam, or of living in an area where urban means living space is too valuable to use for parking cars for anyone but the truly rich.
Driving less is not the cause of collapse - collapse (I prefer 'fracturing') comes in an American context because there are few alternatives to using an IC motor for transporting goods, and because people live in arrangements which require personal transportation. The article from the Globe and Mail yesterday was an interesting read. Actually eye opening, in a way - the first generation in history which actually grew up owning mass personal transportation, essentially seeing it as a part of normal human existence, is now discovering old age and the restrictions old age means in terms of driving. And what this means concretely for their own welfare. If there is anything which is absolutely guaranteed to motivate Boomers, at whatever cost to anyone else older or younger, it is their own self-interest. After all, they were the ones that 'rationalized' the previous 'costly' system of local medical care, and are now themselves discovering that driving 20 miles to the nearest clinic doesn't work well when they can't drive - which means that this situation is now a major, major problem, where before, it was just the invisible hand at work for the benefit of all. (I'll stop about Boomers now - they are a major reason for my idea of 'fracturing' though, as they have been plunderers, not caretakers, of their society - while blaming everything but themselves for their own behavior.)
Europe, for example, considers this fact so self-obvious, that writing an article detailing the need for planning work would be almost absurd - of course cities and towns in a country like Germany are structured to be livable for all their inhabitants, not merely fit people capable of driving a car, with the economic means to afford one. We can quibble over German or Dutch or French planning acumen in this regard, but the idea that town planners need to take into account drivers becoming non-drivers would be too self-evident to discuss.
Expat: You make very good points. I live in midtown Toronto and own a car.One could certainly drive less than 6000 miles a year-unless you are leaving the city it would be difficult to drive more than this number of miles (if you live downtown). The main point I was trying to make is that an extremely dramatic decline in US oil consumption in no way makes economic decline a necessity.
You seem to believe that all the commuters out there will simply quit coming to work. There is not enough mass transit to make up for the loss of the automobile in the US.
But, more importantly, you seem to forget how large a part the automobile itself plays in the economic engine. The US was built around the auto. Think of all the businesses that directly and indirectly depend upon the auto. Of course there are the assembly plants. (Thirty years ago, that would have included steel plants and die plants and so on, but there is little left of the old industrial US). There are the mechanics. The gasoline stations. The manufacturer of gasoline pumps. Tire manufacturers. Road builders. Road maintainers. The people who build the machines that build and maintain the roads. There are the insurance companies. The auto glass people. The fluids people. There are drive-ins and after-market geegaws. And each one of those worker's salaries are spent within the community and circulated several times over.
This is a hugely integrated, complex system that needs each one of its parts to function properly. Now, that is not to say that once the shakeout begins it won't eventually settle. But to what?
I dare say it won't be based upon lots of people driving a few thousand miles each year. My guess is the automobile will become an item of extreme luxury. So, in the not so distant future, when you are walking in the cold to buy a loaf of bread from a local baker, that sleek black car that eases by will inspire typical American feelings of envy. It will not be Joe Blow, average American worker at the wheel, unless he is the chauffeur.
Brian T:
To add to Cherenkov points, you live in Ontario and the auto industry here became the largest auto manufacturing jurisdiction in North America a few years ago. Its decline will affect Toronto probably more than many American cities. Also high oil prices are helping push the Canadian dollar higher. This hurts the auto industry and all the rest of the manufacturing industry in Ontario. Without manufacturing we in Ontario will probably become a have not province. I am invovled in a plant that supplies the auto industry and with my work I deal with outside contractors and suppliers. The economic spinoffs from these facilities will be hard to replace.
Guys: The loss of auto manufacturing has nothing at all to do with peak oil. Oil could be $5 a barrel and eventually a lot of these jobs are going. Chrysler just partnered up with Chery in China. There is talk of India putting out a $4000 car soon. You can't blame every single problem in the world or your life on peak oil.
You make a good point. Certainly there are people that commute a fixed distance to work each day. There are also a large number of people that drive indeterminate distances each day. Think of service people traveling around a territory of multiple states repairing fairly expensive equipment. Think of salespeople visiting customers in multiple states. Certainly some of that can be done by phone and computer. However, face to face contact is most effective. The company that takes away the company car and tries to substitute video chats will lose market share to the companies that keep sending sales guys to each customer. The change will happen eventually, but it won't happen quickly.
I'm not sure many people would say it was a necessity - with prudent government policies, and a massive change of attitude change among consumers and corporations, any modern, sophisticated economy should in principle be able to survive rapidly decline oil supplies. But those policies and attitude changes needed to happen yesterday, if significant decline rates are to start in the next 10 years. Not only didn't they happen, but there's no indication that they're likely to any time soon. The only thing I can see staving of significant economic decline is for oil production to be boosted sufficiently to hold off the peak for another 10 years: not impossible, but it's hard to see where all that oil would come from. Oh, and genuine planning for that peak would have to start within the next or so year.
As I've said before - the Selfish generation (or Boomers), children of the Greatest Generation are really the root cause of most of the problems Gen X/Y is picking up today.
--
When no-one around you understands
start your own revolution
and cut out the middle man
but at the end of the day our problems are long term structures and patterns set over the last decades
i think it is pretty hard to pin the blame on people just coming into positions of any sort of influence... just look who dominates the economy...
--
When no-one around you understands
start your own revolution
and cut out the middle man
Here's your generations chance to show us up, the opportunity is at your door, but, let me guess, nintendo wrist and eye fatigue and your overweight belly from living on the couch just makes it a weeee bit tough to make an effort to do something about your government.
My generation DID RISE UP, and yours is doing what. I know, you complain that we didn't give you chance. Look around RA. Your generation grew up in a time that knowledge and access to knowledge was and still is at all time world high. Yet, you can't look for much less WORK an answer to your problem. Its easier to claim we kept you from it. What a joke you are.
My generation was shot at, killed, murdered, beaten, and treated by the PTB with contempt, but the streets were full and people stood up. MOST of the ones now doing this are the SAME ONES that did it years ago. The congress did its job when the parents saw what was happening and told them to straighten this out.
The day I see you on a street corner protesting with your generation and bringing on those just below you, then you will get my respect.
RIght now your just some whining Xer who thought Punk rock made him tough.
Lets see,.. those before you screwed you and those now after are 'unhirable. Yep, your perrrrfect in your own deluded grandeur of self induced perfection.
What have you done to tweak the PTB RA. What can you lay claim to that shows you tried at the least to prevent what you claim is coming besides whine that some one else isn't doing it for you.
When I read snivel like this from people that grew up thinking that it was supposed to be handed to you, and you bought it. Whose fault is that.
I bet I do more than you to this day, and I can guarantee that I paid and still pay for trying to work for information you need, and its a risk I doubt you would even entertain, and you walk around in blind ignorance.
All too true. In the end, it always comes down to population.
The U.S. wants Mongolia to reduce their population growth rate. But a Mongolian family with 12 kids living in a tent and burning wood for fuel has a smaller footprint than an American family with two kids, driving SUVs to McDonald's. Clearly, the best thing the boomers could have done for the planet was not have kids. Ditto the boomers' parents, and their parents.
Obviously, it's not just the boomers' fault. This train wreck was set in motion long before they were born.
Perhaps it has not occured to you that the selfish generation inherited a system that they in no way asked for. Now your generation, the whiners, have inherited a system that they in no way asked for. You can choose to get over it and go on with your life or spend the rest of your life comlaining about your lot and pointing fingers at others. I believe you will find your life much more satisfying if you attempt improve your lot instead of complaining about it.
You see I just don't buy that - and actually the Whiners are the generation below us - the ones in and coming out of college now - completely unhirable.
But your lot - the boomers at any rate - from very early - as early as you could decide things, your massive demographic led every marketer to pander to you. Your decision making ability punched above its weight from the word go.
You shuffled your parents off into retirement so you could piss away what they'd built up over decades based on their experiences during the depression.
As to attempting to improve - last go round the Gen X attempt to start to change things was, as always, stamped down by the Boomers... until you lot start dying off you'll keep doing that... bloody boomers ;-)
(you have a better argument by the way: without us you lot wouldn't be here so quit your bitching)
--
When no-one around you understands
start your own revolution
and cut out the middle man
RA--
Ah yes, it is the boomers fault---
You must be one of those 80's-90's "me" generation, Ronald Reagan simpletons--
While I admit most of the Boomers took the Blue Pill, your generation didn't even know about the Red Pill. They are on the path, and want nothing to do with reality, and don't want anyone talking about getting off--
All of the survivors (if any) will need to sort it out on the other side---
And, observing the survival skills of your generation, there will not be many of you.
But good luck, sorry you missed the 60's-- it was fun
Boomers were the engine of the Reagan/Thatcher selfishness... you can hardly blame the kids that grew up in it repulsed by it.
I am sure the 60s were fun - having all that wealth, the solid economy built by your parents and shirking responsibility must have been a blast. Then collectively you voted in the Reagan years of selfishness low taxes, crappy education spending and everything else that meant that when my bunch started coming out of college in the early-to-mid nineties we were finding an economy that is sliding to oblivion.
So we set out to change the world with the Internet and your bunch tried to screw that up too... bloody boomers ;-)
--
When no-one around you understands
start your own revolution
and cut out the middle man
I find it hard to believe that '- and actually the Whiners are the generation below us - the ones in and coming out of college now - completely unhirable.' the generation below you are worse than you personally. In fact, I have three daughters and all are probably of your generation and none of them are whiners comprable to you. They all have college degrees, lives of their own and families of their own. They are all well aware of PO, CC and the incompetence of the current administration...but they have not placed blame on the boomers. We have very frank discussions and I have yet to hear one of them blame my generation for the problems that they inherited. I place far more weight on their opinions than on yours...I know how hard they have worked to get where they are. They dont have time to complain.lol I will decline to use your suggestion about a better arguement. I am very glad my daughters are here. Personally, I have led the life of a contrarian. I began riding motorcycles when I was thirteen and continue to ride bikes. When I started riding Madison Ave was not pushing motorcycles. I never bought into christianity or any other ideology. I have never worn 'plastic clothes' and have chosen cotton and wool. I have never inherited a nickle from anyone. My parents retired when they wanted to retire. See what happens when you try to lump a lot of people under one banner and indict all of them for some wrong that is perceived only by you? Your arguement is full of holes. Each generation will have to find their own way. For the many generations that lived before the industrial age very little change in upward mobility happened. I believe that coming generations will face something like that. Only the very brightest will achieve, the rest will hoe the row. Thats the way it was and thats the way it will be.
Why River, the country is in a very bad situation currently. The world also. Achieve in a world run by people that use your children. They will succeed if they toe the line. That line is getting tight and narrow.
We are in a Constitutional crisis and Constitutional lawyers agree and wonder why nothing is being done.
Not one generation is making the Congress understand the Constitution, not one. With the latest order from King George he proclaims Congress can't over rule him if he says people don't have to respond to orders to appear before congress. Its getting very serious.
Paul Craig Roberts just issued some statements that are astounding. Sounds like he is one of us crazy conspiracy nuts. He warned on Thom Hartman's show that he thought it possible a false flag attack was coming. Astonishing and its no where to be seen except on the net.
The admin just told Congressman Defazio from Oregon, on the Homeland security committee, that he could not view documents "even in the bubble" at the White House. The documents denied him, .. he wanted to see the admins plan on continuity of govt in the case of terrorism or other event. Denial of his request his a first I think. Another instance of King Rule.
Yet no one sees it. Or don;t think it matters or the next guy will straighten it out. No President is going to give back power.
Its the reasoning that Paul Roberts uses for why this is so dangerous, and its correct and obvious. These new powers of the President are powerful. In doing this he is destroying the Republican party. How many see a way for any Republican candidate to "legally" win President. The Senate and Congress could see more Republicans lose and the advantage slip. Does this seem like a man concerned about the Party and its future. Not to me.
So do you think he wishes to hand such power off to a Democrat. That doesn't seem likely.
YET the democrats are aware of the powers etc. So is this the reason they don't wish to impeach. A belief that they will grab the "ring of power" and rule.
I don't like that idea either. The democrats are hoping that no one catches on. Its to late for that and the public is wise. The screams and pleads for action are growing each and every day.
this is all very dangerous, and it is real. If all generations don't learn what the Constitution is and what it REALLY means to their future, then the country you THINK is ahead will not even start. Being bright and a slave, or a dumb and a slave. Tell me which one will be happier.
Also consider what is happening in the Middle East and the communication coming from there, as reflected by Cid Yama's Posts.
Russia has sent aircraft TWICE in to British airspace in the last few days. Violating with jets that are capable of you know what.
Putin is a lacky of Bush, not likely. I loved the picture on the beach in Maine with Bush talking and waving his arms about, and Bush is not looking at Putin. Putin is looking at GW and has such a subtle look and smile, that to read to me, "what an arrogant idiot". Is Putin mistaken, and does he think he (Bush) will not use nukes. No Putin knows they will. They want to use their weapons it appears.
like I said its getting dangerous and time to take back your Constitution is fading.
Yes our constitution is currently valued, by the powers that be, about equal to toilet paper.
There are long-term issues and near-term issues but if the current administration is allowed to flout the constitution, tradition, and law, then all those other issues pretty much become secondary.
Want to be an enemy combatant? Want everything of yours stripped away because you've done 'something to undermine the troops in Iraq'?
Where we're at RIGHT NOW is a nasty ugly place. I fear for our future even without peak anything.
The US political system is now hopelessly dysfunctional and in terminal decline. It has been weighed in the balance and found wanting. It's days are numbered, I fear.
(Sigh!) It was good while it lasted.
"What form of government did you give us, Dr. Franklin?"
if they have families of their own they are unlikely to be the generation after me... i am in my 30's
we are having to work in an economy vastly different to the one the boomers inherited at similar ages
i think it is great you are a contrarian - very healthy - but by that label you acknowledge that your group as a whole has not embraced those smart choices...
but what i do find odd is how it is even a point of debate that the boomers - who have dominated political decision making as a group, for decades now, due to their demographic size... and the group who run EVERYTHING now... are not the group who are perpetuating the problem, and indeed made it as bad as it is...
the argument about individuals is kinda irrelevant when it comes to whether or not society as a broad group has failed for generations to take necessary actions
and i find it interesting that my pointing that out leads to the label of whining - whining is an interesting word from a psychological point of view as it is often used by bullies to distance themselves from their actions by de-legitimizing the complaints of the bullied...
--
When no-one around you understands
start your own revolution
and cut out the middle man
RA-
I agree- you are screwed-------
And brainless boomers voted for Ronald and Maggie-------
However, if you are in your 30's, you all really drank the kool aid----
I was out on the internet before Netscape 1-- Mosaic was around, but challenging. It took 3 years before the corporate rape and scrapers knew what was happening---
Your generation is selling commodities to each other, and leveraging derativies, and thinking your are revolutionary.
You must realize, there were very few people of the 60's generation who were politically literate, it was mostly a cultural thing--
Few read Fanon or Adorno, let alone could understand the relation between user and exchange value--
You used the word whiner first so I thought you approved of it. Leaving the word whiner or any other out of our conversation makes no difference to me.
My youngest daughter is 32 I also have one age 36 and one that recently turned 41. I understand that the economy is vastly different now and I fully expect that it will grow worse very soon. How could the economy get better when we are facing PO and CC and have an administration (which I voted against two times) that have adopted radical policies. Not the policies of traditional conservative republicans. This administration set out to conquer the world and were dumb enough to be up front about it with the PNAC agreement. I am not implying that the democrats would have been any better, I doubt they would have been. What I am saying is that the guys running the show now are totally out of control and the democrats, if they had the will, do not have the votes to check administrative power. Bush is bent on staying in Iraq and will not even discuss another course of action. Cheney recently declared that he is not part of the administrative branch of government, but later changed his mind. During the worst years of Viet Nam nothing like Bush/Cheney came to the fore. Nixon was bad but the system was then still functioning enough to get rid of him. Now the system is dysfunctional. But it is not only at the federal level...our state legislators are incompetent. I feel that the entire structure of government is continuing to function only because of some residual momentum and that once the bit of momentum is gone the house of cards will collapse. It is not a picture that I am familiar or comfortable with.
There is no such thing as 'society as a broad group,' there are only individuals that make up a society. Each individual must take part in a democracy for it to work. Imo we are in decline as a country because of materialisim but also because of individual ignorance. Ignorant people cannot make sound decisions and Americans of all generations have made really dumb decisions. It is a concious decision for people to take their eye off what their government is doing and retrain it on bread and circus, and that is exactly what has happened in America. It is also a concious decision for individual Americans to say 'oh, what does it matter if I dont check up on the past of the people running for office, my vote doesnt count anyway.' It happens to matter very much that each person in a democracy pay close attention to government. As Franklin said with a bit of irony 'sure, democracy is a fine form of government...if they can keep it.' He knew how difficult it would be to keep a functioning democracy while powerful lunatics were fighting to claw their way to the top and change the system of government. The powerful lunatics have arrived but not entirely on our watch. I believe that Lincoln was the first lunatic because of his destruction of states rights. After states rights were gone tyranny was the only outcome possible for future America. Many in Europe following what was happening in America commented on the inevitability of Lincolns decisions, but few in America said anything. No, I was not around to vote against Lincoln...
It seems to me that you are searching for some form of guarantee of a good life with a sound economy and no threats on the horizon. No generation has ever had such a sweet deal. My generation had a better time to live in almost entirely because of the actions of FDR. Roosevelt was a plotter and had a vision for America post WW2 that perhaps was seen only by his contemporary, Curchill. Your generation needs an FDR but for the present you are stuck with a bunch of turkeys.
I was born in 1951. I spent the 70s and some of the 80's smoking lots of weed, listening to vinyl records, wearing second hand clothes, hitchhiking, or driving old VW vans. Maybe I should have watched more TV, eh? Probably the only marketer to ever pander to me are the ones who made Screaming Yellow Zonkers. I've been downsizing and heading towards ELP since about 1969.
Sorry dude, most of your generation is full of crap. Super materialistic, believers in the unrestrained capitalist system, watchers of MTV and American Idol, who only look out for or think about number one. Didn't you come of age in the Reagan era? That's when the concepts of making the planet better or doing anything for the greater good of humanity really started getting screwed, and the selfish era really began. Reaganbots. The conservatives and rightwing trashed everything about my generation, swiftboating us long before Kerry.
What's so funny about peace love and understanding anyway?
You really know nothing of our generation clearly. Most people of my generation reject the capitalist nightmare the Reagan era - your generation's votes not ours. However are trapped in an economy that is a shell of the one you guys inherited.
Again - don't confuse people in their 30's working with families today, and the teenagers and early twenty-somethings so ADD afflicted that Paris Hilton is about as sophisticated as their thinking gets.
Again - I think it is great to hear personal stories of how great you are - but I don't know how ANYONE can credibly suggest the boomers have left a better situation for their offspring than they inherited.
--
When no-one around you understands
start your own revolution
and cut out the middle man
okay - now the ad-hominems are out of the way... did you have a point?
--
When no-one around you understands
start your own revolution
and cut out the middle man
Take a look at your own behaviour, rather than scapegoating others. This is the second thread I've seen you do this behaviour, and its neither productive nor honest. If you can't see that we are all responsible, and all in this together, there's no hope for the world.
I see a lot of bitching on here about how the rest of the country/world doesn't own up to its bad behaviour and change. But I see most of that bitching coming from people who have the mindset "everyone else's fault but not mine - i'm virtuous"
One thing that I find funny about that is that it is undeniable that the generation today in their 30s and starting to take on the responsibilities of running things... roughly the age that sort of thing starts - on average.. that generation - us - we've inherited a complete mess, and I just find it interesting that boomers don't want to accept that they have had the reins for decades and haven't done anything about it as a group - regardless of individual actions.
I don't see how such a statement is irresponsible... and accountability doesn't really have any play here...
Now, it isn't saying that we are not all in this together. But there is a lot of hypocrisy floating around when everyone wants everyone ELSE to accept they have screwed up but doesn't want to take that blame themselves... it isn't about scapegoating... it is about looking out there exasperated at the fact that all those I see posting their "well i won't be here to see this stuff" are right - they won't - they just created the mess and I have to sort out what happens for my kids in a far harsher environment
As to all in this together... I don't see that the majority of your generation sees that... I think they are still the same generation that turned the busted idealism of youth to the greed that drove the Reagan years... and left us with the mess we're in. And I don't see them getting serious about the changes needed... I see most of the drive for that coming from people younger...
The biggest damage has been done in the last 30 years or so... not a lot of denying that.
--
When no-one around you understands
start your own revolution
and cut out the middle man
I see a lot of bitching on here about how the rest of the country/world doesn't own up to its bad behaviour and change. But I see most of that bitching coming from people who have the mindset "everyone else's fault but not mine - i'm virtuous"
And if you'd bothered to read the thread before frothing with misplaced indignation you'd see that all I did was lend support and agreement for the prior comment.
That pointed out that the Boomers will only act on very narrow selfish interests... and that they are responsible for creating the inflexible system that we have today... I think his point was valid and is born out by the facts... I am sorry you don't like it - but when you're ready to acknowledge that your generation has to own up to its responsibility for screwing things up and start to pass the baton then there is a sensible debate to be had - and no it doens't absolve anyone else of responsibility for the unsustainable lifestyles they lead... everyone needs to change... but you cannot blame the young for what happened before them.
--
When no-one around you understands
start your own revolution
and cut out the middle man
i admit that i didnt read this entire discussion, however i did read enough to conclude what a rediculous waste of time and electricity the whole thing is.
I can't imagine a typical urban dweller needing to drive a personal vehicle an 'effective' 3000 miles per year
I drive about 180 miles/month (in the months I do not evac or drive out of town for other reasons) and I amn hardly alone (although probably in the bottom 10%, perhaps 5%, of miles driven in my neighborhood).
Of course, I got a "walk score" of 77 :-) and the streetcars was 2.5 blocks away (hopefully back in a couple of months).
Other than the airport and a very few other places. every trip is 5 miles or less one way.
Urbanization will allow the USA to get by with a lot less oil consumption. Living in an urban centre, you can still use a car as your main mode of transport, but instead of driving 15000 miles a year you are driving 6000 miles a year. Double the fuel efficiency and that is down to an effective 3000 miles per year (20% of current). There is no logical reason why this transition alone necessitates economic collapse- a far bigger problem for the USA at the median is globalization (China and India).
I think we use different ideas of 'urbanization' - I can't imagine a typical urban dweller needing to drive a personal vehicle an 'effective' 3000 miles per year.
As a guess, you don't have much experience of cities where owning a car is often considered a liability, like NYC or Amsterdam, or of living in an area where urban means living space is too valuable to use for parking cars for anyone but the truly rich.
Driving less is not the cause of collapse - collapse (I prefer 'fracturing') comes in an American context because there are few alternatives to using an IC motor for transporting goods, and because people live in arrangements which require personal transportation. The article from the Globe and Mail yesterday was an interesting read. Actually eye opening, in a way - the first generation in history which actually grew up owning mass personal transportation, essentially seeing it as a part of normal human existence, is now discovering old age and the restrictions old age means in terms of driving. And what this means concretely for their own welfare. If there is anything which is absolutely guaranteed to motivate Boomers, at whatever cost to anyone else older or younger, it is their own self-interest. After all, they were the ones that 'rationalized' the previous 'costly' system of local medical care, and are now themselves discovering that driving 20 miles to the nearest clinic doesn't work well when they can't drive - which means that this situation is now a major, major problem, where before, it was just the invisible hand at work for the benefit of all. (I'll stop about Boomers now - they are a major reason for my idea of 'fracturing' though, as they have been plunderers, not caretakers, of their society - while blaming everything but themselves for their own behavior.)
Europe, for example, considers this fact so self-obvious, that writing an article detailing the need for planning work would be almost absurd - of course cities and towns in a country like Germany are structured to be livable for all their inhabitants, not merely fit people capable of driving a car, with the economic means to afford one. We can quibble over German or Dutch or French planning acumen in this regard, but the idea that town planners need to take into account drivers becoming non-drivers would be too self-evident to discuss.
Expat: You make very good points. I live in midtown Toronto and own a car.One could certainly drive less than 6000 miles a year-unless you are leaving the city it would be difficult to drive more than this number of miles (if you live downtown). The main point I was trying to make is that an extremely dramatic decline in US oil consumption in no way makes economic decline a necessity.
BrianT,
You seem to believe that all the commuters out there will simply quit coming to work. There is not enough mass transit to make up for the loss of the automobile in the US.
But, more importantly, you seem to forget how large a part the automobile itself plays in the economic engine. The US was built around the auto. Think of all the businesses that directly and indirectly depend upon the auto. Of course there are the assembly plants. (Thirty years ago, that would have included steel plants and die plants and so on, but there is little left of the old industrial US). There are the mechanics. The gasoline stations. The manufacturer of gasoline pumps. Tire manufacturers. Road builders. Road maintainers. The people who build the machines that build and maintain the roads. There are the insurance companies. The auto glass people. The fluids people. There are drive-ins and after-market geegaws. And each one of those worker's salaries are spent within the community and circulated several times over.
This is a hugely integrated, complex system that needs each one of its parts to function properly. Now, that is not to say that once the shakeout begins it won't eventually settle. But to what?
I dare say it won't be based upon lots of people driving a few thousand miles each year. My guess is the automobile will become an item of extreme luxury. So, in the not so distant future, when you are walking in the cold to buy a loaf of bread from a local baker, that sleek black car that eases by will inspire typical American feelings of envy. It will not be Joe Blow, average American worker at the wheel, unless he is the chauffeur.
Brian T:
To add to Cherenkov points, you live in Ontario and the auto industry here became the largest auto manufacturing jurisdiction in North America a few years ago. Its decline will affect Toronto probably more than many American cities. Also high oil prices are helping push the Canadian dollar higher. This hurts the auto industry and all the rest of the manufacturing industry in Ontario. Without manufacturing we in Ontario will probably become a have not province. I am invovled in a plant that supplies the auto industry and with my work I deal with outside contractors and suppliers. The economic spinoffs from these facilities will be hard to replace.
Guys: The loss of auto manufacturing has nothing at all to do with peak oil. Oil could be $5 a barrel and eventually a lot of these jobs are going. Chrysler just partnered up with Chery in China. There is talk of India putting out a $4000 car soon. You can't blame every single problem in the world or your life on peak oil.
You make a good point. Certainly there are people that commute a fixed distance to work each day. There are also a large number of people that drive indeterminate distances each day. Think of service people traveling around a territory of multiple states repairing fairly expensive equipment. Think of salespeople visiting customers in multiple states. Certainly some of that can be done by phone and computer. However, face to face contact is most effective. The company that takes away the company car and tries to substitute video chats will lose market share to the companies that keep sending sales guys to each customer. The change will happen eventually, but it won't happen quickly.
I'm not sure many people would say it was a necessity - with prudent government policies, and a massive change of attitude change among consumers and corporations, any modern, sophisticated economy should in principle be able to survive rapidly decline oil supplies. But those policies and attitude changes needed to happen yesterday, if significant decline rates are to start in the next 10 years. Not only didn't they happen, but there's no indication that they're likely to any time soon. The only thing I can see staving of significant economic decline is for oil production to be boosted sufficiently to hold off the peak for another 10 years: not impossible, but it's hard to see where all that oil would come from. Oh, and genuine planning for that peak would have to start within the next or so year.
As I've said before - the Selfish generation (or Boomers), children of the Greatest Generation are really the root cause of most of the problems Gen X/Y is picking up today.
--
When no-one around you understands
start your own revolution
and cut out the middle man
In no small part by reproducing and creating your generation.
Ah well, seemed like a good idea at the time.
well, that's very clever
but at the end of the day our problems are long term structures and patterns set over the last decades
i think it is pretty hard to pin the blame on people just coming into positions of any sort of influence... just look who dominates the economy...
--
When no-one around you understands
start your own revolution
and cut out the middle man
WEll RA,
Here's your generations chance to show us up, the opportunity is at your door, but, let me guess, nintendo wrist and eye fatigue and your overweight belly from living on the couch just makes it a weeee bit tough to make an effort to do something about your government.
My generation DID RISE UP, and yours is doing what. I know, you complain that we didn't give you chance. Look around RA. Your generation grew up in a time that knowledge and access to knowledge was and still is at all time world high. Yet, you can't look for much less WORK an answer to your problem. Its easier to claim we kept you from it. What a joke you are.
My generation was shot at, killed, murdered, beaten, and treated by the PTB with contempt, but the streets were full and people stood up. MOST of the ones now doing this are the SAME ONES that did it years ago. The congress did its job when the parents saw what was happening and told them to straighten this out.
The day I see you on a street corner protesting with your generation and bringing on those just below you, then you will get my respect.
RIght now your just some whining Xer who thought Punk rock made him tough.
Lets see,.. those before you screwed you and those now after are 'unhirable. Yep, your perrrrfect in your own deluded grandeur of self induced perfection.
What have you done to tweak the PTB RA. What can you lay claim to that shows you tried at the least to prevent what you claim is coming besides whine that some one else isn't doing it for you.
When I read snivel like this from people that grew up thinking that it was supposed to be handed to you, and you bought it. Whose fault is that.
I bet I do more than you to this day, and I can guarantee that I paid and still pay for trying to work for information you need, and its a risk I doubt you would even entertain, and you walk around in blind ignorance.
Makes it tough to want to keep helping your ilk.
Ubi Bene ibi patria
All too true. In the end, it always comes down to population.
The U.S. wants Mongolia to reduce their population growth rate. But a Mongolian family with 12 kids living in a tent and burning wood for fuel has a smaller footprint than an American family with two kids, driving SUVs to McDonald's. Clearly, the best thing the boomers could have done for the planet was not have kids. Ditto the boomers' parents, and their parents.
Obviously, it's not just the boomers' fault. This train wreck was set in motion long before they were born.
Perhaps it has not occured to you that the selfish generation inherited a system that they in no way asked for. Now your generation, the whiners, have inherited a system that they in no way asked for. You can choose to get over it and go on with your life or spend the rest of your life comlaining about your lot and pointing fingers at others. I believe you will find your life much more satisfying if you attempt improve your lot instead of complaining about it.
You see I just don't buy that - and actually the Whiners are the generation below us - the ones in and coming out of college now - completely unhirable.
But your lot - the boomers at any rate - from very early - as early as you could decide things, your massive demographic led every marketer to pander to you. Your decision making ability punched above its weight from the word go.
You shuffled your parents off into retirement so you could piss away what they'd built up over decades based on their experiences during the depression.
As to attempting to improve - last go round the Gen X attempt to start to change things was, as always, stamped down by the Boomers... until you lot start dying off you'll keep doing that... bloody boomers ;-)
(you have a better argument by the way: without us you lot wouldn't be here so quit your bitching)
--
When no-one around you understands
start your own revolution
and cut out the middle man
RA--
Ah yes, it is the boomers fault---
You must be one of those 80's-90's "me" generation, Ronald Reagan simpletons--
While I admit most of the Boomers took the Blue Pill, your generation didn't even know about the Red Pill. They are on the path, and want nothing to do with reality, and don't want anyone talking about getting off--
All of the survivors (if any) will need to sort it out on the other side---
And, observing the survival skills of your generation, there will not be many of you.
But good luck, sorry you missed the 60's-- it was fun
Huh?
Boomers were the engine of the Reagan/Thatcher selfishness... you can hardly blame the kids that grew up in it repulsed by it.
I am sure the 60s were fun - having all that wealth, the solid economy built by your parents and shirking responsibility must have been a blast. Then collectively you voted in the Reagan years of selfishness low taxes, crappy education spending and everything else that meant that when my bunch started coming out of college in the early-to-mid nineties we were finding an economy that is sliding to oblivion.
So we set out to change the world with the Internet and your bunch tried to screw that up too... bloody boomers ;-)
--
When no-one around you understands
start your own revolution
and cut out the middle man
blame as passive-aggressive behavior:
Goggle
Where IS that 'Theory of Everything' ?
Here
it is !
I find it hard to believe that '- and actually the Whiners are the generation below us - the ones in and coming out of college now - completely unhirable.' the generation below you are worse than you personally. In fact, I have three daughters and all are probably of your generation and none of them are whiners comprable to you. They all have college degrees, lives of their own and families of their own. They are all well aware of PO, CC and the incompetence of the current administration...but they have not placed blame on the boomers. We have very frank discussions and I have yet to hear one of them blame my generation for the problems that they inherited. I place far more weight on their opinions than on yours...I know how hard they have worked to get where they are. They dont have time to complain.lol I will decline to use your suggestion about a better arguement. I am very glad my daughters are here. Personally, I have led the life of a contrarian. I began riding motorcycles when I was thirteen and continue to ride bikes. When I started riding Madison Ave was not pushing motorcycles. I never bought into christianity or any other ideology. I have never worn 'plastic clothes' and have chosen cotton and wool. I have never inherited a nickle from anyone. My parents retired when they wanted to retire. See what happens when you try to lump a lot of people under one banner and indict all of them for some wrong that is perceived only by you? Your arguement is full of holes. Each generation will have to find their own way. For the many generations that lived before the industrial age very little change in upward mobility happened. I believe that coming generations will face something like that. Only the very brightest will achieve, the rest will hoe the row. Thats the way it was and thats the way it will be.
Only the brightest will achieve.
Why River, the country is in a very bad situation currently. The world also. Achieve in a world run by people that use your children. They will succeed if they toe the line. That line is getting tight and narrow.
We are in a Constitutional crisis and Constitutional lawyers agree and wonder why nothing is being done.
Not one generation is making the Congress understand the Constitution, not one. With the latest order from King George he proclaims Congress can't over rule him if he says people don't have to respond to orders to appear before congress. Its getting very serious.
Paul Craig Roberts just issued some statements that are astounding. Sounds like he is one of us crazy conspiracy nuts. He warned on Thom Hartman's show that he thought it possible a false flag attack was coming. Astonishing and its no where to be seen except on the net.
The admin just told Congressman Defazio from Oregon, on the Homeland security committee, that he could not view documents "even in the bubble" at the White House. The documents denied him, .. he wanted to see the admins plan on continuity of govt in the case of terrorism or other event. Denial of his request his a first I think. Another instance of King Rule.
Yet no one sees it. Or don;t think it matters or the next guy will straighten it out. No President is going to give back power.
Its the reasoning that Paul Roberts uses for why this is so dangerous, and its correct and obvious. These new powers of the President are powerful. In doing this he is destroying the Republican party. How many see a way for any Republican candidate to "legally" win President. The Senate and Congress could see more Republicans lose and the advantage slip. Does this seem like a man concerned about the Party and its future. Not to me.
So do you think he wishes to hand such power off to a Democrat. That doesn't seem likely.
YET the democrats are aware of the powers etc. So is this the reason they don't wish to impeach. A belief that they will grab the "ring of power" and rule.
I don't like that idea either. The democrats are hoping that no one catches on. Its to late for that and the public is wise. The screams and pleads for action are growing each and every day.
this is all very dangerous, and it is real. If all generations don't learn what the Constitution is and what it REALLY means to their future, then the country you THINK is ahead will not even start. Being bright and a slave, or a dumb and a slave. Tell me which one will be happier.
Also consider what is happening in the Middle East and the communication coming from there, as reflected by Cid Yama's Posts.
Russia has sent aircraft TWICE in to British airspace in the last few days. Violating with jets that are capable of you know what.
Putin is a lacky of Bush, not likely. I loved the picture on the beach in Maine with Bush talking and waving his arms about, and Bush is not looking at Putin. Putin is looking at GW and has such a subtle look and smile, that to read to me, "what an arrogant idiot". Is Putin mistaken, and does he think he (Bush) will not use nukes. No Putin knows they will. They want to use their weapons it appears.
like I said its getting dangerous and time to take back your Constitution is fading.
Quid Clarius Astris
Ubi Bene ibi patria
Prisoner X -
Yes our constitution is currently valued, by the powers that be, about equal to toilet paper.
There are long-term issues and near-term issues but if the current administration is allowed to flout the constitution, tradition, and law, then all those other issues pretty much become secondary.
Want to be an enemy combatant? Want everything of yours stripped away because you've done 'something to undermine the troops in Iraq'?
Where we're at RIGHT NOW is a nasty ugly place. I fear for our future even without peak anything.
The US political system is now hopelessly dysfunctional and in terminal decline. It has been weighed in the balance and found wanting. It's days are numbered, I fear.
(Sigh!) It was good while it lasted.
"What form of government did you give us, Dr. Franklin?"
"A republic, IF YOU CAN KEEP IT!"
if they have families of their own they are unlikely to be the generation after me... i am in my 30's
we are having to work in an economy vastly different to the one the boomers inherited at similar ages
i think it is great you are a contrarian - very healthy - but by that label you acknowledge that your group as a whole has not embraced those smart choices...
but what i do find odd is how it is even a point of debate that the boomers - who have dominated political decision making as a group, for decades now, due to their demographic size... and the group who run EVERYTHING now... are not the group who are perpetuating the problem, and indeed made it as bad as it is...
the argument about individuals is kinda irrelevant when it comes to whether or not society as a broad group has failed for generations to take necessary actions
and i find it interesting that my pointing that out leads to the label of whining - whining is an interesting word from a psychological point of view as it is often used by bullies to distance themselves from their actions by de-legitimizing the complaints of the bullied...
--
When no-one around you understands
start your own revolution
and cut out the middle man
RA-
I agree- you are screwed-------
And brainless boomers voted for Ronald and Maggie-------
However, if you are in your 30's, you all really drank the kool aid----
I was out on the internet before Netscape 1-- Mosaic was around, but challenging. It took 3 years before the corporate rape and scrapers knew what was happening---
Your generation is selling commodities to each other, and leveraging derativies, and thinking your are revolutionary.
You must realize, there were very few people of the 60's generation who were politically literate, it was mostly a cultural thing--
Few read Fanon or Adorno, let alone could understand the relation between user and exchange value--
I was out on the internet before Netscape 1-
So? I was on the Internet back before there WAS a web.
I figured WAIS was the future...
http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=Wide+Area+Information+Servers&btnG=...
So much for my Thinking Machines....
You used the word whiner first so I thought you approved of it. Leaving the word whiner or any other out of our conversation makes no difference to me.
My youngest daughter is 32 I also have one age 36 and one that recently turned 41. I understand that the economy is vastly different now and I fully expect that it will grow worse very soon. How could the economy get better when we are facing PO and CC and have an administration (which I voted against two times) that have adopted radical policies. Not the policies of traditional conservative republicans. This administration set out to conquer the world and were dumb enough to be up front about it with the PNAC agreement. I am not implying that the democrats would have been any better, I doubt they would have been. What I am saying is that the guys running the show now are totally out of control and the democrats, if they had the will, do not have the votes to check administrative power. Bush is bent on staying in Iraq and will not even discuss another course of action. Cheney recently declared that he is not part of the administrative branch of government, but later changed his mind. During the worst years of Viet Nam nothing like Bush/Cheney came to the fore. Nixon was bad but the system was then still functioning enough to get rid of him. Now the system is dysfunctional. But it is not only at the federal level...our state legislators are incompetent. I feel that the entire structure of government is continuing to function only because of some residual momentum and that once the bit of momentum is gone the house of cards will collapse. It is not a picture that I am familiar or comfortable with.
There is no such thing as 'society as a broad group,' there are only individuals that make up a society. Each individual must take part in a democracy for it to work. Imo we are in decline as a country because of materialisim but also because of individual ignorance. Ignorant people cannot make sound decisions and Americans of all generations have made really dumb decisions. It is a concious decision for people to take their eye off what their government is doing and retrain it on bread and circus, and that is exactly what has happened in America. It is also a concious decision for individual Americans to say 'oh, what does it matter if I dont check up on the past of the people running for office, my vote doesnt count anyway.' It happens to matter very much that each person in a democracy pay close attention to government. As Franklin said with a bit of irony 'sure, democracy is a fine form of government...if they can keep it.' He knew how difficult it would be to keep a functioning democracy while powerful lunatics were fighting to claw their way to the top and change the system of government. The powerful lunatics have arrived but not entirely on our watch. I believe that Lincoln was the first lunatic because of his destruction of states rights. After states rights were gone tyranny was the only outcome possible for future America. Many in Europe following what was happening in America commented on the inevitability of Lincolns decisions, but few in America said anything. No, I was not around to vote against Lincoln...
It seems to me that you are searching for some form of guarantee of a good life with a sound economy and no threats on the horizon. No generation has ever had such a sweet deal. My generation had a better time to live in almost entirely because of the actions of FDR. Roosevelt was a plotter and had a vision for America post WW2 that perhaps was seen only by his contemporary, Curchill. Your generation needs an FDR but for the present you are stuck with a bunch of turkeys.
I was born in 1951. I spent the 70s and some of the 80's smoking lots of weed, listening to vinyl records, wearing second hand clothes, hitchhiking, or driving old VW vans. Maybe I should have watched more TV, eh? Probably the only marketer to ever pander to me are the ones who made Screaming Yellow Zonkers. I've been downsizing and heading towards ELP since about 1969.
Sorry dude, most of your generation is full of crap. Super materialistic, believers in the unrestrained capitalist system, watchers of MTV and American Idol, who only look out for or think about number one. Didn't you come of age in the Reagan era? That's when the concepts of making the planet better or doing anything for the greater good of humanity really started getting screwed, and the selfish era really began. Reaganbots. The conservatives and rightwing trashed everything about my generation, swiftboating us long before Kerry.
What's so funny about peace love and understanding anyway?
You really know nothing of our generation clearly. Most people of my generation reject the capitalist nightmare the Reagan era - your generation's votes not ours. However are trapped in an economy that is a shell of the one you guys inherited.
Again - don't confuse people in their 30's working with families today, and the teenagers and early twenty-somethings so ADD afflicted that Paris Hilton is about as sophisticated as their thinking gets.
Again - I think it is great to hear personal stories of how great you are - but I don't know how ANYONE can credibly suggest the boomers have left a better situation for their offspring than they inherited.
--
When no-one around you understands
start your own revolution
and cut out the middle man
IrresponsibleUnaccountable
Get a mirror. And while you are at it, take the cotton out of your ears and shove it in your mouth!
Bob Ebersole
okay - now the ad-hominems are out of the way... did you have a point?
--
When no-one around you understands
start your own revolution
and cut out the middle man
Yeah, Irresponsible Unaccountable,
Take a look at your own behaviour, rather than scapegoating others. This is the second thread I've seen you do this behaviour, and its neither productive nor honest. If you can't see that we are all responsible, and all in this together, there's no hope for the world.
Bob Ebersole
I tell you what I do see.
I see a lot of bitching on here about how the rest of the country/world doesn't own up to its bad behaviour and change. But I see most of that bitching coming from people who have the mindset "everyone else's fault but not mine - i'm virtuous"
One thing that I find funny about that is that it is undeniable that the generation today in their 30s and starting to take on the responsibilities of running things... roughly the age that sort of thing starts - on average.. that generation - us - we've inherited a complete mess, and I just find it interesting that boomers don't want to accept that they have had the reins for decades and haven't done anything about it as a group - regardless of individual actions.
I don't see how such a statement is irresponsible... and accountability doesn't really have any play here...
Now, it isn't saying that we are not all in this together. But there is a lot of hypocrisy floating around when everyone wants everyone ELSE to accept they have screwed up but doesn't want to take that blame themselves... it isn't about scapegoating... it is about looking out there exasperated at the fact that all those I see posting their "well i won't be here to see this stuff" are right - they won't - they just created the mess and I have to sort out what happens for my kids in a far harsher environment
As to all in this together... I don't see that the majority of your generation sees that... I think they are still the same generation that turned the busted idealism of youth to the greed that drove the Reagan years... and left us with the mess we're in. And I don't see them getting serious about the changes needed... I see most of the drive for that coming from people younger...
The biggest damage has been done in the last 30 years or so... not a lot of denying that.
--
When no-one around you understands
start your own revolution
and cut out the middle man
Oh, the irony...
And if you'd bothered to read the thread before frothing with misplaced indignation you'd see that all I did was lend support and agreement for the prior comment.
That pointed out that the Boomers will only act on very narrow selfish interests... and that they are responsible for creating the inflexible system that we have today... I think his point was valid and is born out by the facts... I am sorry you don't like it - but when you're ready to acknowledge that your generation has to own up to its responsibility for screwing things up and start to pass the baton then there is a sensible debate to be had - and no it doens't absolve anyone else of responsibility for the unsustainable lifestyles they lead... everyone needs to change... but you cannot blame the young for what happened before them.
--
When no-one around you understands
start your own revolution
and cut out the middle man
i admit that i didnt read this entire discussion, however i did read enough to conclude what a rediculous waste of time and electricity the whole thing is.
I can't imagine a typical urban dweller needing to drive a personal vehicle an 'effective' 3000 miles per year
I drive about 180 miles/month (in the months I do not evac or drive out of town for other reasons) and I amn hardly alone (although probably in the bottom 10%, perhaps 5%, of miles driven in my neighborhood).
Of course, I got a "walk score" of 77 :-) and the streetcars was 2.5 blocks away (hopefully back in a couple of months).
Other than the airport and a very few other places. every trip is 5 miles or less one way.
Best Hopes for compact, walkable cities,
Alan
Heh, my mchouse in the Austin mcburbs got a score of 20 :(
I thought that website would never come back to life.
Hmmm ... maybe need to start cleaning this place up to unload it ...