Happiness, economic growth, and oil prices

Top: US GDP per capita, and US median family income, in thousands of chained 2000 US dollars. (GDP from the BEA, median family income from Data 360, and population from the Census Bureau). Bottom: Percentage of persons who responded to the question "Taken all together, how would you say things are these days‐‐would you say that you are very happy, pretty happy, or not too happy?" with each of the three options. (General Social Survey).

The country getting much wealthier over the last few decades has had very limited effect on our aggregate happiness.

Furthermore, oil prices are fairly uncorrelated with happiness:

Top: Inflation adjusted oil prices/barrel (BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007). Bottom: Percentage of persons who responded to the question "Taken all together, how would you say things are these days‐‐would you say that you are very happy, pretty happy, or not too happy?" with each of the three options (General Social Survey).

Conclusion: The absolute level of happiness of the US population is not very sensitive to macroeconomic variables. The approach of peak oil has not had a large effect on happiness so far. Interesting to watch how this develops.

Finally, I would say that I am "pretty happy". It would be interesting to know how personal happiness correlates with views on peak oil.

Small Print

This is the happiness raw data:

1972-82 1982B 1983-1987 1987B 1988-91 1993-1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
Very Happy 1 4632 68 2352 64 1918 2240 891 881 415 419 920
Pretty Happy 2 7194 209 4179 216 3368 4332 1575 1603 784 738 1676
Not too happy 3 1755 73 903 63 571 891 340 293 170 180 390
Don't know 8 1 0 1 0 0 2 2 1 1 2 6
No answer 9 44 4 107 10 50 37 24 39 2 1 0
Not applicable 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1393 1472 1518 4383

I plotted the center point of the aggregate time ranges, and the percentages in my graph neglect the don't know/not applicable responses. I cannot find an annual series for this survey question, though the survey is apparently performed annually.

Also, Methodological Report 56 cautions:

21. Two separate context effects have distorted the time trend on personal happiness (HAPPY). First, personal happiness is higher for married persons when preceded by an item on marital happiness (HAPMAR). Marital happiness has preceded personal happiness on all surveys except 1972 and Form 3 in 1980 and Form 3 in 1987. To make a consistent series we have a) used the experimental comparisons in 1980 and 1987 to adjust the 1972 personal happiness figures and have eliminated the variant experimental forms in 1980 and 1987 (Smith, 1979). Second, personal happiness is lower when not preceded by the five-item, satisfaction scale (SATCITY, SATHOBBY, SATFAM, SATFRND, SATHEALT). This scale has routinely preceded personal happiness except in 1972, in 1985, on Form 2 in 1986, and on Forms 2 and 3 in 1987. Using the experimental comparisons in 1986 and 1987, we have adjusted the figures for 1972 and 1985 and have eliminated the variant forms for 1986 and 1987 (Smith, 1986).