The Oil Drum

151 comments on Peak Oil Booklet: Chapter 3: What's Ahead?

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PaulS on July 31, 2007 - 11:40am

You're partially right about this, of course, but really it's a bit more complicated, and not much to do with the direct petroleum cost, which is indeed usually negligible. The truth is that oftentimes, no one is really managing small and obscure supply chains even when they are highly critical. The items may even be highly profitable, but the dollar volume is just too small to get anyone's full attention. The "critical buyer" may not be listening. After all, nearly everything is ultimately run by finance guys, not engineers.

Some years ago, service was disrupted for quite a while on the Washington Metro because, just like that, the manufacturer of certain electromechanical relays no longer felt like making them. Metro had to run some lines at reduced headways in manual mode, making the rush-hour crowding even more awful than usual, until they found somebody else to make relays. There has yet to be any such thing as an economical, reliable, continuing supply of anything electronic.

I would guess that as ever more attention is diverted to the big stuff of energy supply - and complications such as increasing difficulty even getting employees in to work together - failures caused by the neglect of all sorts of little stuff will be on the rise.

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auntiegrav on July 31, 2007 - 12:54pm

Kunstler says that the airlines are the "canary in the coal mine". I have said (years ago) that we will know when we reach The Hole when airplanes start dropping out of the sky.

There was a time when electronic supplies were reliable: When local manufacturers made the parts in house. Philo T. Farnsworth understood this when he invented television. He sent his brother-in-law to apprentice to blow glass for vacuum tubes, he wound every coil himself.

When things are too complex to make it yourself with reasonable skills, you don't need it. Customary comfort and convenience are not 'needs', and we should remember this when looking for ways to ameliorate resource loss. The first question every good inventor learns to ask himself is, "Does anyone need this, or do I have to create a market for it?"
We've let the oil companies and auto industries and energy companies "create the market" which mostly wasn't needed, and now the PTB use "consumption" statistics to tell us how much we will "need" in the future.

What will fit through The Hole?

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markincalgary on July 31, 2007 - 3:47pm

Are you on crack or perfectly comfortable with the hypocrisy of posting your comment with a computer?

Now, I'm pretty fond of simple tools. For example, I'm really enjoying putting up loose hay for my small flock of sheep with a scythe, rake, hay fork, and wheelbarrow. I'm also a fan of bikes, reel mowers (although sheep are better), and hand tools for woodworking. My leaning is definitely towards depending on tools that can be built or at least serviced by the user. And I'm with you that there are huge lifestyle changes looming in our futures, but specialization will be part of that.

If our population was one tenth of what it is, we might be able to get by, but it will probably suck a lot less if we each choose to focus on areas that would benefit us most (ie. which may include benefiting others most).

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geewiz on August 1, 2007 - 1:14am

When Southwest Airlines quits flying is when there is no more air travel. If Southwest goes under, they will be the last. No other airline in the USA will be flying.