230 comments on For all practical purposes the markets are closed right now
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I agree with Nate and Penguinzee on this. China is far from immune to any downturn here. Moreover, the Chinese revolution is only 58 or so years old -- there are many millions who still remember the revolution. The Chinese gov't is a giant labor contractor -- should the demand for goods in the West shrink significantly, they have a tremendous problem on their hands. The situation is quite different from the 30s -- whatever one might think of Stalin, the SU at that time was to a considerable extent immune to the economic disaster in the West -- but not the military consequences of course.
"Wars will come and governments will change, but the land and the people will go on." -paraphrased
-from "The Good Earth" by Pearl S. Buck
Dave: Stalin? The Soviet Union in the 30s? Open your eyes-China's economy is already almost as large as the USA. This was done in less than 30 years.
"China's economy is already almost as large as the USA."
Source please? By GDP China's GDP in 2006 was less than 20% of the US, and was still behind Germany and Japan, according to the IMF.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)
Shaman: CIA Factbook has it at approx 77% of USA (PPP). China is already the largest consumer market in the world for every product except autos. It is the second largest exporter. Does that sound to you like a country 20% the size of the USA? At the current pace, China will be the largest consumer market in the world by 2015 and by far the largest exporter.
Thanks for the source. I wish they had more detail about their methodology on PPP - it would appear that they are valuing the Yuan at four times its official rate. I must say I'm a bit skeptical about that, but that's a gut feeling, not based on inside knowledge.
It's tough to predict China's trajectory - we're in uncharted territory.
Massive importer of food, but strong agrarian base. Low domestic energy production, but very low energy requirement for basic survival. Catastrophic environmental depletion, but lots of resources in the empty quarter to the North. And the biggest standing army in the world.
Low domestic energy production?!
Chinese coal production is huge (and then there's Daqing)! The biggest increase in global primary energy supply during the last 10 years has very likely come from exploding Chinese coal mining.
Sure, domestic demand is even greater than the domestic supply, but you can say that too about another vast energy producer, the USA.
You call it uncharted territory. The Chinese could simply call it another "five year plan", one which involves a certain staged withdrawal and some "healthy" austerity measures.
The capacity for China to revert back to one bowl of rice per day, two sets of green pajamas and a rusty bicycle is not to be dismissed. I think a lot of people are underestimating the Chinese government's willingness to strike an abrupt 180 degree turn seemingly overnight.