230 comments on For all practical purposes the markets are closed right now
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Thanks for the source. I wish they had more detail about their methodology on PPP - it would appear that they are valuing the Yuan at four times its official rate. I must say I'm a bit skeptical about that, but that's a gut feeling, not based on inside knowledge.
It's tough to predict China's trajectory - we're in uncharted territory.
Massive importer of food, but strong agrarian base. Low domestic energy production, but very low energy requirement for basic survival. Catastrophic environmental depletion, but lots of resources in the empty quarter to the North. And the biggest standing army in the world.
Low domestic energy production?!
Chinese coal production is huge (and then there's Daqing)! The biggest increase in global primary energy supply during the last 10 years has very likely come from exploding Chinese coal mining.
Sure, domestic demand is even greater than the domestic supply, but you can say that too about another vast energy producer, the USA.
You call it uncharted territory. The Chinese could simply call it another "five year plan", one which involves a certain staged withdrawal and some "healthy" austerity measures.
The capacity for China to revert back to one bowl of rice per day, two sets of green pajamas and a rusty bicycle is not to be dismissed. I think a lot of people are underestimating the Chinese government's willingness to strike an abrupt 180 degree turn seemingly overnight.