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45 comments on Interview with Jean Laherrère

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wizofaus on August 3, 2007 - 2:31am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Hmm, that you're only aiming for 10% cut in 10 years doesn't sound nearly ambitious enough.
As high a cut would surely be more simply acheived by fuel economy improvements: after all, the Europeans already have an average fuel economy nearly 50% higher than the U.S., implying a 30% cut in oil usage, so if a third of Americans collectively upgraded to vehicles that averaged European fuel economy ratings over the next 10 years, that's an 10% cut right there.

Of course, combine the two, and you've got a 20% reduction in 10 years...which might be just enough to keep up with oil import depletion rates.

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AlanfromBigEasy on August 3, 2007 - 8:13am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

-10% is a conservative, quite defensible estimate under a modest decline in world oil exports. A modified BAU situation.

Rail has elasticity of supply. The worse things get, the more people and freight it can move (to upper limits).

And once we start building it, we can build more faster. The savings in the second ten years will be larger than the first ten years.

It is a "silver BB", not a silver bullet. Hummers will have to go ! Do this and other steps to mitigate post-Peak Oil.

Best Hopes,

Alan

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wizofaus on August 3, 2007 - 4:40pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

In some ways I see "electrification of transport" in general, including replacing all private vehicles with PHEVs and EVs, and of course electrification of mass transit (heavy and light rail), as the only realistic way to allow civilisation to continue without oil.
In that sense, it is "the silver bullet". But calling it that might convey the impression that it means little has to change, whereas of course in reality, it means massive change, over many many decades...although, it must be said, not necessarily any more massive than the amount of change that happened throughout the either half of the 20th Century.

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AlanfromBigEasy on August 3, 2007 - 8:08pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I see "electrification of transport" in general, including replacing all private vehicles with PHEVs and EVs, and of course electrification of mass transit (heavy and light rail), as the only realistic way to allow civilisation to continue without oil

Grenoble France is working towards a walk + bicycle + tram (+ TGV for longer distances) solution. I think that bicycles (including electric bikes, especially for elderly) can take a larger role than EVs.

But it will take more than a decade to get to a minimal oil infrastructure.

Best Hopes,

Alan

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45 comments on Interview with Jean Laherrère

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