105 comments on The House is poised to debate and pass an Energy Bill this week...get your thoughts in...UPDATED
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As little as I like politics, this is ultimately why we spend time on this site, ciphering and deciphering, debating and discovering - so that we can impact policy, micro or macro.
As I discussed in my recent post, saving energy via strong CAFE standards, lower speed limits, etc. is just like having a new oil find, especially domestically - when we are worried about energy security.
The bill is 800 odd pages long, which shows me how distanced real people are from real policy - how to accessibly persuade our congress to take meaningful changes in bite sized palatable enough increments is a tall task - especially when our constituents are still largely of the mindset that low prices and growth are our ordained right.
I hope Speaker Pelosi and other courageous public representatives can put forward as aggressive changes to the Energy Policy act as possible.
Regarding Rep Udalls potential Renewable Portfolio Standard for electricity, we CAN actually get electricity from renewables - the other 'Renewable' policy on the books is very much a misnomer - via the EPA, the Renewable Fuel Standard is anything but. Its defined as:
We all know that corn ethanol, currently the 'renewable' fuel of choice, is made entirely with fossil fuel inputs, with the exception of the sun growing the corn. A tiny energy gain remains after accounting for: natural gas that provides the fertilizer, diesel fuels for the tractors and farm machinery, natural gas and coal for steam the solution and gasoline that distributes the fuel. Almost entirely fossil fuel but it's termed 'renewable' because plant matter is involved. I can't seem to upload Rep Udall's proposed bill but one hopes this addresses this issue on the electricity front. Tidal, wind, solar, batteries etc all are much more renewable than biofuels, and deserve to be part of this bill. (If anyone can find link to Udalls HR 969 amendment - if anyone has a link please post it)
CAFE may be too little too late by standards of people familiar with whats ahead, but this is the process. Baby steps can make a difference. With the credit swoon upon us, policymakers will be wont to be too aggressive on measures hurting the economy. But the amendment boosting CAFE to 35 by SOONER than 2019 will get those bright minds in Michigan and Silicon Valley working hard before the energy crisis doesn't offer us any time.
For those who aren't afraid to step out of the box a bit, try calling your congressional rep tomorrow and share your information, even if you only get a staffer. They are quite tuned in.
We all know, from the June 20 UNEP/SEFI report (http://www.sefi.unep.org/)and so on, that renewables (not bioethanol) are a rapidly growing market. Renewable Portfolio Standards at the state level in the US have encouraged an accelerating flow of investment into wind, wave, solar, geothermal and other technologies. The EU countries are also big champions of renewables, and enjoy a continent-wide market to scale up technologies, seek solutions to intermittent supply problems (eg, via storing wind-generated energy), and so on. The US has been able to ignore the Bush-Cheney fossil-neck at the federal level, because California and other technologically advanced states have tough standards that are working (not perfectly, but that's another matter).
The question is whether to continue as is, betting on the advanced states and letting the laggards (ie, the South) be, or federalize some minimal target that Bush-Cheney and those who side with them will accept.
One potent economic reason for the US, at the federal level, to enact an RPS is that the Japanese are beginning to catch on. Sunday's electoral thrashing of the long-ruling Liberal Democrats by the Democratic Party of Japan included a proposal by the latter for 10% of electricity to be generated via renewables by 2020. This isn't a lot, but beats the LDP's target of 1.63% by 2014. The LDP is in thrall to the accident-prone nuclear industry (who are opportunistic peak-oilers, by the way) as well as unimaginative business leaders who see RPS as vaguely socialist. Their kind of thinking has seen Japan lose its lead in solar, do zip on geothermal (in spite of being so impressively tectonic), and otherwise squander a host of green-tech opportunities (domestically as well as overseas) stemming from the energy-environmental crisis.
Japan is a unitary state, so doesn't have RPS at the local level. When it does get a target at the central-state level, America will have another potent competitor. You people have already lost leadership in the car industry to the Japanese, so maybe you want to get serious on renewables.
Re: We all know that corn ethanol...is made entirely from fossil fuel inputs with exception of the sun growing the corn.
This is the crux of the error's being made here at TOD. How is it that fossil fuel is only a small fraction of the costs for me to produce corn as compared to land, seed and labor and surely is a small fraction of the cost for ethanol producers compared to the purchased corn, labor, plant, finance and management costs? Yet here at TOD this all gets ignored and changed into "ethanol is made entirely from fossil fuel inputs" with the sun's inputs almost dismissed. The bias is breathtaking.
The whole point of ethanol is not that there is a big energy gain but that liquid transport fuel (expensive) is made from corn and mostly natural gas which are cheap. Making something expensive out of something cheaper is the whole idea behind production. This is the fallacy behind EROEI which is a near religion at TOD. I have posted on this before, but maybe I should use westexas's technique and repeat the same idea over and over again. At least he seems to get somewhere repeating stuff. Or maybe his ideas are better. The idea that forms of energy can be changed from the less usable with the current infrastructure to the more usable seams to me to be dismissed here. Why? Energy is not finite. Fossil fuels are finite. A new supply of energy arrives from the sun every day. Transforming that energy into liquid transport fuel is a valid strategy for mitigating peak oil. Those that only want conservation (usually described in mandatory terms) should do the conserving. Go ahead do it. Those who can add to the supply of liquid transport fuel should do if they can.
Trying to stop those who are attempting to mitigate peal oil because their method doesn't suit the EROEI religion is a dead end. If you want conservation, fight for it and do it. I have no problem with that.
Corn ethanol have some problems even if you consider them just a energy conversion. Besides, converting natural gas and oil into ethanol isn't that usefull, is it? Both can be used for transportation near the same way.
But your main problem is that you didn't say where the energy that we transform into ethanol comes from. That is the bigest problem, not how to make liquid fuels.
"How is it that fossil fuel is only a small fraction of the costs for me to produce corn as compared to land, seed and labor and surely is a small fraction of the cost for ethanol producers compared to the purchased corn, labor, plant, finance and management costs?"
One, because Fossil fuels are artificially cheap here, so your measurement of ROI based on Dollar Inputs is skewed to Oil and NG's clear advantage.
Two, 'Surely a small fraction of the cost for ethanol producers' - are you sure? The energy required for processing, drying and refining that corn into ethanol is where the greatest energy inputs are required, right?
Still, your argument that this is simply creating a value-added product is my main concern. While we do need Transport Liquids, this uses gas and diesel to produce an LTF that is un-pipable, subject to water contamination, and complicates our Transp fuel reliance towards products that hinge on Harvest Times, Weather and Irrigation conditions, and compete with crop space (and aquifer reserves) for food crops. Every expansion of this industry will make that competition more intense, and I don't see how it would be a healthy contest for the country.
ps, is the .50 subsidy on Ethanol basically providing the profit-margin that makes this seem like a value-added product?
Bob
Ethanol from corn has huge problems. Read my article:
Corn-Based Ethanol: Is This a Solution?
This is the crux of the error's being made here at TOD. How is it that fossil fuel is only a small fraction of the costs for me to produce corn as compared to land, seed and labor and surely is a small fraction of the cost for ethanol producers compared to the purchased corn, labor, plant, finance and management costs? Yet here at TOD this all gets ignored and changed into "ethanol is made entirely from fossil fuel inputs" with the sun's inputs almost dismissed. The bias is breathtaking.
1) your fertilizer costs might be in units of fossil fuel
2) corn isn't ethanol, and turning it into ethanol requires substantial additional energy, most of which is fossil fueled.
What is the power and transportation costs for an ethanol plant?
Practical, I won't sidetrack this thread with arguments on EROI and ethanol other than to say I agree with you that EROI is not a panacea and said as much in my recent post. More important than the energy return of an alternative technology is the energy return of what its replacing, which gets back to demand, CAFE, speed limit, carpooling, electric train arguments, etc.
Also, my reply to you there, shows that ethanol DOES use a huge amount of non-renewable inputs. Natural gas this summer is cheap but the forward markets 2009 and beyond are making all time highs this week. If you have to pay triple for seed and fertilizer in a few years, how good of idea will ethanol be? Or what if you can't buy fertilizer at all?
By developing low energy gain renewable energy that has a majority component that is fossil, we are squandering opportunities using existing fossil reserves to develop high energy gain renewable systems. This is why ethanol is a bad idea. We will switch from one perceived bottleneck (oil) to another one (natural gas, or greenhouse gas emissions from more coal). If all the energy inputs (and NON-ENERGY inputs, like soil and water), were abundant, then I totally agree that the energy return of ethanol wouldn't be as relevant. But thats not the case with bio-ethanol.
I will put up a separate post on this issue in the next week or so and we can debate this until we come to some agreement, if possible.
It's a "near religion" because it is the crux of the biscuit. If I spend $200 to get to my job where I earn $200 per day, I have nothing at the end of the day. Ethanol is not much better than this scenario.
Robert posted an excellent look at the "solar" gain of ethanol here http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2812#more.
It's not that the method doesn't suit a "religion", it's that it Just. Doesn't. Work. in any meaningful way for mitigation of oil. There have been countless computations on what the potential mitigation is, and has been shown countless times that it is a drop in the bucket. I'd love to see anything that shows otherwise.
If I spend $200 to get to my job where I earn $200 per day, I have nothing at the end of the day.
Ahhh, but the Tax man made something.
I am a constituent of Rep Jack Wamp, Tennessee 3rd Congressional district, who is a co-chair of the House Renewable and Energy Efficiency Caucus. While I disagree with him on many(if not most) things, I have met him on several occasions when he has had 'listening' sessions for voters in his district and I believe that he is sincere in trying to do what is best for his district. The problem becomes one of convincing him of the best path forward. I just sent him an email: