It seems we need to learn the same lessons over and over with regard to credit risk. A review of the mortgage lending practices of late along with the leverage of these intsruments looks like a recipe for trouble, the hidden (unreported) weakness in the economy is helping the slide.

I wrote this here on June 28:

A lot of rich people are spooked by the Bear Stearns thing. It hits the New York financial professionals in exactly the way that reading news about home foreclosures of poor people in Missouri just doesn't.

I know New Yorkers who did work on the Long Term Capital Management bailout back in the 90s, and this has that same creepy feel, looking over an abyss and imagining what it would be like if it weren't just one fund, but a cascading series of hedge fund collapses.

Yesterday the media was buzzing about Goldman's mounting Global Alpha fund losses.

It's feeling more and more like an ablation cascade - that theoretical catastrophic chain reaction of colliding satellite debris that could make launching anything into orbit impossible.

The important thing to understand is that a significant global financial turndown will mask peak oil for years, but it won't necessarily ease the problems of ailing electricity infrastructure and failing supply.

Kenny,

I am willing to bet the farm that you hit the nail on the head. This bull market is scheduled to end everyone agrees. Furthermore a downturn will prolong the current standard of living for those who are prepared as well as mask peak oil.

If the powers that be are charged with the task of keeping order then the solution is in place and the wheels are turning.

i-like-dirt

To a certain point I agree. I think a few people now are capable of bringing down the house if you will, if they choose to do so.

China
Russia
The US
OPEC
Europe
Japan

Notice in the list the US stands out with the least amount to lose if they decide to stop the bailouts. Also the bailouts and games are temporary and will at best keep us going into 2008. Notice I did not say through 2008.

No way the use can prevent subprime from collapsing and taking out the housing industry its toast and this will eventually take out the economy. We have not even hit the first major wave of ARM resets and already things are falling apart. I'd say we are best about 10% into the backside of the housing bubble that left alone bottoms in 2011 and stays there for a while. We are in for either a long Japanese style deflation event or hyper inflation nothing can be done to stave this off long term.

So I think at some point the US will pull the plug so to speak on the world economy and default. Assuming that another party does not act first.

Throw peak oil and especially export land into the mix and its pretty enticing for the US to attempt to derail China while it can regardless of side effects. We are rapidly approaching the point we have nothing left to loose.

I think the game is to bait the Chinese into starting the fiasco so they get blamed while we ensure that the pain is widespread. The Chinese on the other had are going to face a tough choice either they continue to take tons of worthless dollars and unpeg or we shut off trade. the threat of devaluing the dollar is without merit since we plan to do that anyway. Right now I think the only thing holding up the collapse is trying to get China to throw the first stone.