The problem here is FUD fear uncertainty and doubt not just the money. We are seeing oil prices all over the place because of economic issues and will continue to see major swings even though the long term trend is upwards. Given this the chance to raise 300 billion or more important the 1 trillion needed over the next few years to bring online the hard to reach oil is questionable. My position is that even the aggressive infield drilling and water management projects needed to maintain production in our old fields will begin to be canceled much less projects like the tar sands.

Since maintenance programs are not generally announced you have to look at other measures to see this.

What I see happening is the following.
1.) Tanker rate drop and continue dropping as less oil is produced.
2.) Refinery profits narrow and refining becomes marginally profitable eventually even heavy sour becomes almost too expensive vs its refining cost.
3.) The boom in drilling equipment and suppliers ends and costs begin to drop but the key thing is this does not cause projects to restart because of market conditions.

So if I'm right we will have a overcapacity of rigs very soon and it will only get worse as the oil industry retracts waiting for the economy to recover. In the meantime the price of oil although volatile will continue to increase as the economy waits for more oil before it can recover.
OPEC probably will never pump more oil then it does today if it has spare capacity now it will be eroded over time by depletion.

What we need to watch for is a fairly sudden drop in rig rates.