"If only 2% purchase hybrids, and oil has declined 50% then gasoline prices still rise until gasoline usage is cut in half. "

Hybrids are already at 2.2% of new sales, and growing 55% per year.

"I don't believe that electrical generation will continue to increase in North America. "

Wind was 20% of new generation in 2006, and could easily provide all new generation in 5 years.

"It would not surprise me if oil is shifted to home heating from driving.

No, home heating will be electrified with heat pumps, which even now are the cheapest way to heat & cool. No one will go from natural gas to fuel oil. Heck, even resistance electrical heat is barely more expensive than fuel oil.

"the percent chance of overlap drops with the square of the commute distance. I would say that overlap is at least 1/4 what it was in 1970"

What are the chances that 3-4 people within a mile of you, work within a mile of your work? Extremely high. My point is that it's doable, if absolutely needed.

Take a look at Zipcar.com for an example of how telecom changes things. Zipcar is car rental, but without the rental agents, with decentralized locations, and very short rental periods. None of this was possible 30 years ago.

"Best to take a conservative view, knowing that something will not work as expected. If we need to plan for the worst, then we should."

We should plan for the risk of the worst, in order to avoid it - I believe that's what you really mean. Planning for the worst is a very bad way to live. Further, we need to look at the most likely eventualities (as well as the consequences of the worst cases), in order to choose between alternatives.

For some reason, some people believe people like Kunstler when he makes nightmare predictions, despite a lack of a shred of evidence for his dismissal of wind and solar. Believing people like him isn't conservatism, it's just a mistake.

Heading for the hills before Y2K would have been a mistake. People (including Kunstler) made nightmare predictions, but others simply worked very hard to prevent problems, and succeeded.

It would not surprise me if oil is shifted to home heating from driving

I think Suburbanites would rather drive & shiver at home (or let their poorer neighbors shiver). I question if the market would allow such a diversion, and I also question gov'ts willingness as well.

In Washington DC, an interesting (and unplanned) phenomena has developed. Single occupancy vehicles wanting to use HOV lane pull into shopping centers with excess parking. There lines of people wait for certain destinations. "Pentagon" "Capital Hill" etc. The driver going to the Pentagon stops at the Pentagon line and takes on 3 pax, who board silently. The rule is that unless the driver speaks, no one says anything.

All four speed past congestion in the HOV lane. In the afternoon, there is one corner of the Pentagon where HOV pax gather and are randomly picked up to go back to where their car is parked.

AFAIK, this is limited to a few locations in the DC area and it "just happened".

Best Hopes for Solutions,

Alan

"Light Rail & Rapid Rail (subway or elevated) should have stops about every mile once out of the downtown area/Medical Center/high rise condo areas"

I don't know. I'd go for every 1/2 mile. That really connects everything in that corridor to the train.

I don't like buses & feel bicycles should be left to recreation(unsafe). I'd go for more light rail in more or less parallel corridors, or many originating from a center.